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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forums"The 2020 presidential election...a battle of the bases, and the Democrats' base is simply bigger."
Why Trump Will Lose in 2020
The president is running hard on a strategy of riling up his base. But by doing that, he riles up the Democratic base, too, and that one is bigger.
By Rachel Bitecofer
Dr. Bitecofer is a professor of political science at Christopher Newport University.
Motivated by the threat posed by the Trump administration, casual Democratic voters, especially college-educated women, have been activated since Mr. Trumps election and will remain activated so long as the threat he presents to them remains. And the complacent Democratic electorate of the 2010 and 2014 congressional midterms as well as the 2016 presidential election is gone (for now). It has been replaced by a galvanized Democratic electorate that will produce the same structural advantage for Democrats that manifested in the 2018 midterms.
The surge wont be uniform. Democrats will win big in more urban, more diverse, better-educated and more liberal-friendly states and will continue to lose ground in other states like Missouri. Although Mr. Trump may well win Ohio and perhaps even Florida again, it is not likely he will carry Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in 2020. Look at the midterm performance of statewide Democrats in those states. And his troubles with swing voters, whom he won in 2016, will put Arizona, North Carolina and perhaps even Georgia in play for Democrats and effectively remove Virginia, Colorado, Nevada and New Hampshire from the list of swing states.
In short, the 2020 presidential election is shaping up as a battle of the bases, and the Democrats base is simply bigger. When their demographic advantage combines with an enthusiasm advantage and heightened party loyalty fueled by negative partisanship, they hold a significant structural advantage. Turnout in 2018 was about 12 points higher than 2014 turnout and higher than any midterm in decades. Midterm turnout can sometimes trail presidential-election-year turnout by 20 points. It was just 10 points in 2018, when it hit nearly 50 percent, versus 2016. It is not infeasible that turnout in 2020 will exceed 65 percent. Presidential-cycle electorates are better for Democrats than midterm electorates are, and the third-party share in 2018 was also at its lowest levels in decades. In congressional midterms, the average third-party balloting rate in recent elections is about 3.5 percent; in 2018, it was just half that.
Well spend the next 21 months captivated by an election whose outcome may already be determined because of polarization and negative partisanship. Democrats have a clear path to recapturing the White House. It is hard to imagine any other president facing these conditions running for re-election. But needless to say, Mr. Trump isnt just any other president.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/24/opinion/trump-2020-election.html
elleng
(131,203 posts)NewJeffCT
(56,829 posts)their base is dying off.
msongs
(67,462 posts)world wide wally
(21,757 posts)Fucking VOTE!
Miles Archer
(18,837 posts)There were no excuses last time, of course.
Hopefully, the people who sat on their asses and said "It doesn't matter" last time learned a hard lesson from that.
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)Incumbency is massive and she totally ignores it. Hispanics have a near-100% trend of backing the incumbent far beyond projection or prior results. I have provided those numbers previously. We can't be stupid enough to take the Hispanic block for granted and assign the 2016 percentage or anything close to that. It would be the equivalent of taking those midwestern states for granted in 2016.
The only time we have lost the presidential popular vote since 1988 was in this scenario --- during 2004 while facing a Republican incumbent whose party has been in power only one term. It is not a slam dunk cycle for that reason. We desperately need Trump's approval rating to remain where it is, or not much higher. Otherwise those swing blocks are going to return to him.
I would rather be us than them but there are numerous reasons this is a tight scenario. The betting line right now is 60/40 in favor of a Democrat winning in 2020. Too many posters here and elsewhere seem to think this is some type of avalanche.
BannonsLiver
(16,508 posts)For example, a chaos candidate running in the general election as a left leaning independent. Someone with more stature than Jill Stein and the nutty greens.
coti
(4,612 posts)BannonsLiver
(16,508 posts)coti
(4,612 posts)and give Trump advice on how to stop an election. Among other things.
BannonsLiver
(16,508 posts)pecosbob
(7,545 posts)Only one republican candidate was elected to national office from the state at midterms.