General Discussion

CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts) Wed Jan 4, 2012, 01:39 PM Jan 2012

The most important numbers out of Iowa

Fact: About 120,000 Republicans caucused in Iowa last night.
Fact: About 240,000 Democrats caucused in 2008.

Think about what that means.

Nearly double the number of Democrats caucused for Democrats, in 2008--than did Republicans in the
Iowa caucus last night.

I don't see how the Republicans, in the general Presidential election, can possibly overcome these
extraordinarily high Democratic numbers--which bear out in many states. Not just in Iowa.

During the 2008 Presidential election--I remember seeing a Texas county that had more people vote
for Obama--than they had registered Republicans! There were numbers like this all over the country.

The Iowa numbers shine the spotlight on a point--The numbers of registered Democrats
and the numbers of Democrats who participated in 2008 is a tidal wave of strong support--compared
to the weak participation numbers--as shown in the Republican Iowa caucus last evening.

If this is a general trend, the Republicans are in a world of hurt--right out of the starting gate.

Republicans are not enthused about their choices this year. The Republicans did not experience a "surge"
in participation this year--as Democrats did in 2008. This leaves them with a very big weakness. They
just won't have the numbers of registered voters that the Democrats gained from 2008.

I seriously don't see how Republicans can possibly overcome this in the 2012 Presidential election. The deck
is completely stacked against them.

6 replies

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Highlight:

The most important numbers out of Iowa (Original Post) CoffeeCat Jan 2012 OP

How do Republicans overcome this? two words..... arbusto_baboso Jan 2012 #1

No doubt they will try... CoffeeCat Jan 2012 #4

I do believe that's a promising statistic. Uncle Joe Jan 2012 #2

Iowa was blue in 2008 - hopefully it will be in 2012 liberal N proud Jan 2012 #3

Yes, and these maps underscore my original point... CoffeeCat Jan 2012 #5

2008's an outlier Proud Public Servant Jan 2012 #6

arbusto_baboso

(7,162 posts)

1. How do Republicans overcome this? two words.....

Reply to CoffeeCat (Original post)

Wed Jan 4, 2012, 01:41 PM

Jan 2012

Election Fraud.

I'm not kidding.

CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)

4. No doubt they will try...

Reply to arbusto_baboso (Reply #1)

Wed Jan 4, 2012, 02:01 PM

Jan 2012

However--fraud can only take you so far.

With numbers like that in many states--fraud will be hard to pull off. If you have 30 percent
more Democrats participating in the process, and voting--it won't be easy to pull off a heist.

I agree, that in close races--they will attempt fraud. We all ready see Republican shenanigans
happening with respect to voter suppression.

Obviously, after Republicans ran the numbers--after Obama was elected--they went into panic
mode. That is why they set up (and lied about) Acorn. They had to stop the flow of further
Democratic voter registrations, as best they could.

Uncle Joe

(58,365 posts)

2. I do believe that's a promising statistic.

Reply to CoffeeCat (Original post)

Wed Jan 4, 2012, 01:44 PM

Jan 2012

Thanks for the thread, CoffeeCat.

liberal N proud

(60,335 posts)

3. Iowa was blue in 2008 - hopefully it will be in 2012

Reply to CoffeeCat (Original post)

Wed Jan 4, 2012, 01:52 PM

Jan 2012

But in 2004, Not so much:

Blue in 2000:

CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)

5. Yes, and these maps underscore my original point...

Reply to liberal N proud (Reply #3)

Wed Jan 4, 2012, 02:08 PM

Jan 2012

Iowa has gone back and forth--sometimes blue and sometimes red.

However, in 2008--we saw a surge in caucus participation--due to excitement about Obama. 240,000 Democrats
participated in the Iowa caucus that year. That's a record high for Democrats and Republicans have NEVER
come close to hitting that 240,000 number.

2008 was a game changer for the Democrats in general--because we registered so many new Democrats
and so many people who never participated before--participated.

2008 expanded our army. The Republicans have not been able to offer up a candidate that can catalyze
the enthusiasm or interest needed to get a large percentage of their voters to the polls.

Here's a point about Romney. Four years ago in Iowa--he garnered 25 percent of the caucus vote when he ran
his unsuccessful bid for the Republican nomination. Last night, he snagged 25 percent ONCE AGAIN.

If that's not telling, I don't know what is!!!! Romney did not grow his support in four years. I live in Iowa and I
saw the endless barrage of Romney television ads. He was all over the state. He worked hard here, and Romney
did not increase his base of support here.

Seventy five percent of Republicans voted for someone other than Romney. That's pretty tepid support. That kind of
lackluster support for Romney--within his own party--bodes very well for Democrats.

Proud Public Servant

(2,097 posts)

6. 2008's an outlier

Reply to CoffeeCat (Original post)

Wed Jan 4, 2012, 02:22 PM

Jan 2012

GOP turnout last night was almost exactly the same as the Dem turnout in 2004, when the circumstances were almost exactly the same (incumbent in the White House has approval rating under 50% and is loathed by opposition party; opposition party's leading candidate, though, engenders no enthusiasm). Make of that what you will.

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