General Discussion

Alhena

(3,030 posts) Mon Feb 4, 2019, 03:12 PM Feb 2019

I think we can have a fun and comfortable general election

if we nominate the right candidate. A recent poll shows Biden beating Trump by 14 points in Michigan. 14 points. Those are "game over" numbers. Biden wouldn't ordinarily be my first choice (Beto or Klobuchar are), but he's perfectly acceptable to me, and if nominating Biden means that we can go through several months of the general election cycle knowing full well that victory over Trump is in store, then count me in the Biden camp.

5 replies

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I think we can have a fun and comfortable general election (Original Post) Alhena Feb 2019 OP

What do you think about this: Big Blue Marble Feb 2019 #1

At about this point in 2007, Hillary Clinton 62%/Barack Obama 33% - a nearly 30 point spread hedda_foil Feb 2019 #2

it's far from "nothing" though i'd agree much can change. unblock Feb 2019 #3

I stand corrected. It's not nothing. Rather, nothing is definitive at this very early stage. hedda_foil Feb 2019 #5

Both Trump and Biden are very known quantities Alhena Feb 2019 #4

Big Blue Marble

(5,092 posts)

1. What do you think about this:

Reply to Alhena (Original post)

Mon Feb 4, 2019, 03:15 PM

Feb 2019

Could Biden's numbers drive Trump out of the race altogether?

In that case, the race would get quite interesting as many Republicans
would be jumping in to the fray.

hedda_foil

(16,375 posts)

2. At about this point in 2007, Hillary Clinton 62%/Barack Obama 33% - a nearly 30 point spread

Reply to Alhena (Original post)

Mon Feb 4, 2019, 03:27 PM

Feb 2019

USA Today/Gallup Poll Feb 9-11, 2007 Hillary Clinton 62% Barack Obama 33%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2008_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

14 points is nothing at this point, nearly 2 years out from the presidential election in 2020.

unblock

(52,253 posts)

3. it's far from "nothing" though i'd agree much can change.

Reply to hedda_foil (Reply #2)

Mon Feb 4, 2019, 03:36 PM

Feb 2019

ask anyone if they're rather by 14 points up or tied or 14 points down and nearly everyone would say 14 points up. usually the only ones who say "i'd rather be the underdog" are the people who are already the underdog.

the flip side is that donnie's numbers are remarkably stable. compared to most presidents, there are very few undecided and vastly more people have strongly-held opinions of him than usual.

it would take something remarkable to really change his numbers. the much bigger unknown is who the democratic candidate will be and what will that person's numbers look like.

hedda_foil

(16,375 posts)

5. I stand corrected. It's not nothing. Rather, nothing is definitive at this very early stage.

Reply to unblock (Reply #3)

Mon Feb 4, 2019, 08:51 PM

Feb 2019

It really will take something remarkable, as you say, to change his numbers. Hopefully the multiple investigations will help move them.

Alhena

(3,030 posts)

4. Both Trump and Biden are very known quantities

Reply to hedda_foil (Reply #2)

Mon Feb 4, 2019, 05:28 PM

Feb 2019

if I were Trump, I'd be scared witless of facing Biden with his appeal among blue collar Rust Belt workers. Trump simply has no chance of winning without those voters.

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