or “electoral.”

vote against a candidate or party as much as they vote for a candidate. We all know people who voted “against” Hillary in the last election. This will happen again if the Democratic Party doesn’t get its shit together and nominate a solid candidate with no baggage who will appeal to independent voters in the swing states and elsewhere.

so far, the circumstances which allowed Trump's rise to power in the first place are still very much in play for 2020, plus now he gets to run as an "experienced incumbent with a record of accomplishments" -- not that he's actually experienced or accomplished, but he'll run like he is and his base will buy it.

No F'ing way will I underestimate again.

If nothing else, at least James Comey can't pull a repeat.

The same in 2020 as in 2016:
Electoral college - overall popular vote doesnt matter
Upper midwest voters still key
Russian meddling - no sign they won't do it again and already have campaigns going
Repub voter suppression
Racism and fear - No change there, in fact more openness about using them to defeat Dems

On the good side, we should have a much more energized electorate and hopefully Mueller's work will have an impact. Of course drumpf may not even be the nominee. If it's Kasich Dems will have a fight on their hands.

so far it doesn't look like we will have a candidate that can do that. Myself and many others here could see it coming
and we were ridiculed. (Don't worry she got it) (The Blue Wall)

I just cannot see it. At all.

Sherrod Brown

I would like Brown and Klobuchar

I've posted on other threads that Brown/Klobucher might be a strong ticket. However, I'm presently undecided.

I'm also disheartened that polls this early in the game carry so much influence. At this point what do we really know about where each candidate stands on the issues and how they would attempt to carry them out. At this early point we can't really judge how good a campaigner each candidate would be or how well they can run a campaign.

and think Biden would capture a lot of support from moderates who want a return to sanity.

He’s from a Rocky Mountain purple state, and not from the Northeast or New York, which already are guaranteed to go blue.

Dotard will look a lot worse than he did in 2016. Then people thought he could be a refreshing new thing; now most sane people know he is certainly not.

I know that his base is unwavering in their entrenched stupidity, but his actual base is not enough to swing a national election,.

I don't get it either. I can't see him winning without cheating.

However, we have to consider the fact that cheating is a very likely possibility AGAIN in 2020. We have to do everything in our power to stop them from doing it again.

And it can happen again.

some world actors who are good guys and who have seen the devastating consequences, might somehow yet figure out a way to run interference.

Different “actors” on the world stage trying to out-hack the other side?

Can't say it any simpler

We didn’t think he would win in 2016 either. We underestimate his base at our peril. Fight hard, win - that’s is our mission.

And they do cheat, and have done so since 1968.

or vote for the green party like selfish brats. Republicans have stacked the odds against democrats through gerrymandering and Russia. Dems need more votes than them to win. The most important thing we can do is get out the vote!

The media will do that same thing with him they have always done, they will normalized him and protect him. The GOP will protect him. The thing, Russia, that put him in office is 2016 will be in play in 2020.

Hillary won by a landslide, and yet Trump is in office.

She had almost 3 million more votes. But even if she had 9 million more votes in California and NY she still would not be President.

We've got to stop feeling good about "winning" 2016 and start learning how to win the REAL game.

And if the nominee is Kamala, NC could be in play (it went once for Obama). If Beto's the nominee, all hands better be on deck in Texas. And in Floriduh, WTF knows!

Pull together, work with Democrats and each other as if your very lives depended on it, because they might.

The stakes are too high to take anything for granted.

for sure. His record is abysmal, and he won't be underestimated as he was in 2016.

The Democrats just got 60.7 million votes... in a mid-term. That's presidential level enthusiasm, and it was mainly a rebuke of Trump. +70 million votes isn't out of the question for 2020. In that (likely scenario) no amount of Russian/GOP chicanery will save nthe Orange Shart from defeat.

Trump was treated as a joke in 2016 - including by some people who were so sure Clinton would win that they voted for Trump to send a message to Clinton.

I heard the same thing about Reagan and Bush II.

And for part of that time I was a republican and happy for the outcome.

Here’s how we lose: miss-read the electorate!

In my opinion, not shared by a majority on DU, Americans are not looking for radical change, but radical normality!

We nominate someone on the left but on DU considerered a centerist like Biden, Booker, Klobuchar or Brown(if he runs) we win in a cake walk.

We nominate someone promising ‘Radical’ change we lose.

I just saw this play out in Florida. The table was set for a return of a Democratic Governor and had we nominated Graham I believe we would have won. But we nominated a candidate who favored Medicare for all and free college tuition, which to many on DU are super popular. Well, Governor DeSantis is enjoying his new job.

And that is the real shit. We nominate someone wanting these things we risk losing the electoral college. Because popular vote means spit.

We must play the REAL game. It is COLLEGE ball, not popularity.

Try posting more.

Not that I missed the double entendre in the post.

Popularity is important. So is winning.

And then I couldn't understand how he could possibly win the election 2016.

Right now, I can't understand why he could win in 2020.

But clearly, my track record isn't great.

That is how they do it.

Our task is to make sure they don't get away with it again.

That is the core of the problem. Trump's effective approval rating is in the 45% range. That's what it was in the 2018 midterm exit poll (45-54), even though we had an 8 point generic edge.

Bottom line Trump is more popular with actual voters than among Americans as a whole. Every time a poll number shows up, there is desperation to amend it downward, by removing Rasmussen or whatever. Maybe that feels good but the adjustment is away from reality. Trump was at 41.8% approval on 2018 election day, the same day he registered 45% approval in the actual exit poll.

The OP lists 30% as Trump's base. Every time there is a poll insisting Trump has 90% approval among Republicans, the desperation is to claim the number of Republicans is shrinking, instead of accepting the 90%. Again, I guess that feels nice but as a handicapper I have to laugh at it. Trump's approval right now is considerably higher than when he won in November 2016. His exit poll that day was 38% favorable, 60% unfavorable.

Donald Trump in 2020 will be in the most favorable scenario in American politics...an incumbent whose party has been in power only one term. Only Jimmy Carter has lost from that situation in more than a century. I always place more weight on situational factors than on my own subjectivity, or my ideology, or any type of conventional wisdom. We not only need a perfect nominee to win 2020, we have to get very lucky. Trump needs to continue to implode. Otherwise the typical benefit of a doubt toward the incumbent is going to show up.

Downrange looks great but 2020 was always going to be a huge problem, if a Republican won in 2016. The fundamentals don't go away just because we wish them away. Cheerleaders are lovely on the sideline but often fooled in politics.

this time around, due to incumbency/bully pulpit, the fact that he has been normalized, that the economy (on paper at least) is doing "good" (big business won't line up against him).

In 2016 he lost a percentage of Repub votes to Johnson, I think those voters come back to Trump.

We can do it depending on the candidate.. I think Kamala can reassemble the Obama coalition better than any other candidate.. we'll see.

Some people vote Democratic, no matter what. Some people vote Republican, no matter what. There are very few people who can be swayed.

Also, I have to say that Trump is a very tough campaigner, and we must not take him lightly. Republicans look at politics as if it were a life and death matter. They will get down in the gutter and mud and fight til their last breath.

to enough apathy on our side to ensure his re-election

We want him swept away by a massive wave