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Quixote1818

(28,960 posts)
Fri Mar 1, 2019, 01:17 AM Mar 2019

Anyone else thinking of pulling their money out of the stock market until after the next crash?

Most economists are predicting a crash by next year and the market has basically leveled off since the beginning of 2018. It has recovered a bit from the slump a few months ago close to where it peaked at in early 2018. I don't see it going up much more before the next crash and if I wait too long there is always the chance of the crash occurring early and I would be kicking myself.

Anyone else having the same worries and wanting to jump ship before the iceberg hits? If so where are you thinking of moving your money that is now in stocks?

Edited: Deleted the article I linked to after I read it. Should have read it first before linking as its title was dishonest.

40 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Anyone else thinking of pulling their money out of the stock market until after the next crash? (Original Post) Quixote1818 Mar 2019 OP
August to December 2018 Aussie105 Mar 2019 #1
Attempting to time the market is a fool's game. PoindexterOglethorpe Mar 2019 #2
Ordinarily I would agree but we are way overdue for a correction and most are Quixote1818 Mar 2019 #5
I thought the 4,000 point or so drop PoindexterOglethorpe Mar 2019 #7
Beware confirmation bias FBaggins Mar 2019 #32
I agree with this. I'm retired though. So perhaps my view is biased. KPN Mar 2019 #34
PoindexterOglethorpe is correct Homoudont Mar 2019 #19
I have considered it radical noodle Mar 2019 #3
Investing in stocks is foolish. briv1016 Mar 2019 #4
I'm investing all mine in hummus! PoindexterOglethorpe Mar 2019 #9
Nope. Can't time the market. look at a 20 year graph - the corrections look pretty minor. NRaleighLiberal Mar 2019 #6
Great response! phylny Mar 2019 #16
if you have your liquid asset needs in stocks, then yes...otherwise, no. Moostache Mar 2019 #8
I pulled out of equities last fall RainCaster Mar 2019 #10
What money? 🤷🏼‍♀️ LakeArenal Mar 2019 #11
Nope, I just contribute more when it goes down because it always comes back higher. madville Mar 2019 #12
Already did it last year. Trump is dangerous to the financial health of all of us little people. nt Hekate Mar 2019 #13
Took out some of it back in December. sinkingfeeling Mar 2019 #14
Unless you are about to retire and you can't handle risk....then HELL NO. nt UniteFightBack Mar 2019 #15
I'm one of the people who panicked 11/9/16 mnhtnbb Mar 2019 #17
I see this prediction every year. without fail. spanone Mar 2019 #18
Yes. or No. or Maybe. cbdo2007 Mar 2019 #20
If I've said it once, I've said it a dozen times: no one should look to DU for investment advice onenote Mar 2019 #21
Quess I missed the articles about most economists predicting a crash. GulfCoast66 Mar 2019 #22
We just ride any dips and there have been many. BSdetect Mar 2019 #23
Did already. Went to a 40/60 mix last November. Johonny Mar 2019 #24
We went to a 50/50 mix when orange man was elected. Canoe52 Mar 2019 #35
How much did that decision end up costing you? onenote Mar 2019 #36
Not a dime, turns out the mattress is rent free. Canoe52 Mar 2019 #37
There seems to be an underlying belief that buying stocks PoindexterOglethorpe Mar 2019 #25
That has tax implications MiniMe Mar 2019 #26
Yes Dem2 Mar 2019 #27
I haven't found anything that suggests most economists are predicting a crash by next year... Drunken Irishman Mar 2019 #28
too many factors here... if you are in companies that are not overbought, JCMach1 Mar 2019 #29
Don't bother timing the market. Put money in and don't look at it Recursion Mar 2019 #30
Bad idea Fiendish Thingy Mar 2019 #31
Then I'd have to pay capital gains and taxes on deferred income comradebillyboy Mar 2019 #33
And today the Dow closed up 110 points on the day, PoindexterOglethorpe Mar 2019 #38
Never bought anything in the first place: I have nothing to worry about. So, yeah. lindysalsagal Mar 2019 #39
yes, I am strongly considering. lastlib Mar 2019 #40

Aussie105

(5,420 posts)
1. August to December 2018
Fri Mar 1, 2019, 01:21 AM
Mar 2019

saw a global slump, but recovery in Jan/Feb saw things back to normal.

Now is a perfect time to pull out of the market, yes. Or at least move to more secure options.

PoindexterOglethorpe

(25,881 posts)
2. Attempting to time the market is a fool's game.
Fri Mar 1, 2019, 01:26 AM
Mar 2019

There are those who took everything out the day after Trump was elected. The market has gone up some seven thousand points since then. A couple of months ago people were freaking out because we'd finally had an actual market correction for the first time in a decade. It's since recovered.

Here's something else to keep in mind. The market makes new highs on a somewhat regular basis. Go check out the last time it reached a new low.

Now do some research on what sort of mix of stocks and bonds does best over the long term.

The main thing is to be decently diversified. Also, if you have spare cash, buy on the dips. If you don't want to be 100% invested in the market, then don't be. But taking everything out is a very bad idea.

Quixote1818

(28,960 posts)
5. Ordinarily I would agree but we are way overdue for a correction and most are
Fri Mar 1, 2019, 01:36 AM
Mar 2019

not predicting something small the next time.

PoindexterOglethorpe

(25,881 posts)
7. I thought the 4,000 point or so drop
Fri Mar 1, 2019, 01:47 AM
Mar 2019

from September to December was a correction.

I'm not exactly an expert, but I will repeat that trying to time the market is essentially impossible. Sure, there could be another very large drop as there was a decade ago, but there's no way of knowing when it will start or when it will bottom out. And again, a lot of people figured Trump would be a total disaster and that the market would bottom out once he was elected, but that didn't happen.

My real point is that I understand some nervousness and wanting to take some profits. But sell everything? What if you'd done that in November of 2016?

I have a good financial advisor whom I trust. I do feel a bit nervous sometimes, which is probably normal, especially at my age, 70. But at the end of last year I started taking income from two annuities he got me into, which means that my current guaranteed income streams are sufficient for a modest life.

Oh, and I know annuities have a bad rap. There are annuities and there are annuities, and I'm certain that getting me into those two was one of the best things he did for me.

FBaggins

(26,757 posts)
32. Beware confirmation bias
Fri Mar 1, 2019, 01:48 PM
Mar 2019

It simply isn’t true that “most economists” are predicting a collapse by next year - nor is it true that the market is overdue for a correction since we just had one that came just shy of qualifying as a bear market.

That doesn’t mean that the market can’t fall substantially from here... but attempts to time the marke (which require not just knowing when to get out, but also when to get back in) are almost never successful

KPN

(15,649 posts)
34. I agree with this. I'm retired though. So perhaps my view is biased.
Fri Mar 1, 2019, 02:03 PM
Mar 2019

I'm only about 16% invested in equities at the moment -- for this reason.

Homoudont

(36 posts)
19. PoindexterOglethorpe is correct
Fri Mar 1, 2019, 09:51 AM
Mar 2019

PoindexterOglethorpe is correct. There are a lot of people smarter then you and I and they can't time the market. Put it this way if you were to invest in the S&P 500 over a 30 year span you will beat 99% of the portfolio managers on wall street. The only two managers that can beat the index funds over a long period of time is Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet. Lynch is retired and I am fine finishing 2nd to Buffet.

radical noodle

(8,012 posts)
3. I have considered it
Fri Mar 1, 2019, 01:27 AM
Mar 2019

but where to put it? Maybe not taking it out of the market but putting it into something safer.

PoindexterOglethorpe

(25,881 posts)
9. I'm investing all mine in hummus!
Fri Mar 1, 2019, 01:49 AM
Mar 2019

(Just got done watching some James Veitch videos, the guy who engages scammers and usually says that he's convinced hummus has a huge future. Just love him.)

phylny

(8,385 posts)
16. Great response!
Fri Mar 1, 2019, 09:07 AM
Mar 2019

My husband and I are retiring this year. We are diversified and will stay in the stock market in a way appropriate to our ages.

Moostache

(9,897 posts)
8. if you have your liquid asset needs in stocks, then yes...otherwise, no.
Fri Mar 1, 2019, 01:48 AM
Mar 2019

If you have money that you will need in the next 12-36 months in the market, then it should NOT be in stocks; otherwise, buy the dips and dollar cost average to take advantage of the market movements - when you have a long time line to recover, buying through a dip is the same as buying stocks on sale as long as you invest in low-fee indexed funds.

Put another way...if you are drawing down assets (in retirement) or getting ready to soon, then diversify and get as broad as possible.

RainCaster

(10,912 posts)
10. I pulled out of equities last fall
Fri Mar 1, 2019, 01:54 AM
Mar 2019

I'm only a few years from retirement, I can't afford to rebuild my 401k again.

madville

(7,412 posts)
12. Nope, I just contribute more when it goes down because it always comes back higher.
Fri Mar 1, 2019, 02:26 AM
Mar 2019

I'm not drawing anything out for another 17 years minimum though, plenty of time to ride the waves. If I sold everything today or put it in bonds the market would go up 10% next week.

mnhtnbb

(31,401 posts)
17. I'm one of the people who panicked 11/9/16
Fri Mar 1, 2019, 09:07 AM
Mar 2019

and pulled everything out of the market. I knew we were facing a shitshow with 45. Although I'm sorry to have missed that run through 2017 (I started getting back in fall 2017), I don't regret protecting my assets. And I bought heavily back in last December when the market tanked.

I'm retired and a widow. I only buy dividend producing equities. Those companies tend to hold value better in downswings. I'm not going to make a killing in any of those stocks, but that's not my goal. My investments are intended to produce income to augment my SS and pension (survivor's benefit) and preserve capital.

Because we sold our house before my husband died, I am able to hold 5 years worth of living expenses (what is needed in addition to SS and the pension) in cash. So I feel pretty confident I can ride out any market swings at this point.

As long as Dems control the House, I'm not worried about SS. If they hadn't taken control last November, my strategy might be different because I would be a lot more worried my benefit could be drastically changed by greedy Republicans.

cbdo2007

(9,213 posts)
20. Yes. or No. or Maybe.
Fri Mar 1, 2019, 10:08 AM
Mar 2019

Take your pick, your guess is as good as anyone elses, but history shows the best returns always come from just leaving your money in the market until you retire and then taking it out in small regular chunks.

onenote

(42,747 posts)
21. If I've said it once, I've said it a dozen times: no one should look to DU for investment advice
Fri Mar 1, 2019, 10:10 AM
Mar 2019

Talk to a professional. A market advisor not an "economist".
You can find articles where "top economists" are predicting a crash in 2016, 2017, 2018....

Here's one from August 2017. The market has increased by nearly 20 percent since this article. http://fortune.com/2017/08/10/stock-market-crash-today-down-bubble-2017/

GulfCoast66

(11,949 posts)
22. Quess I missed the articles about most economists predicting a crash.
Fri Mar 1, 2019, 10:17 AM
Mar 2019

Some are predicting a recession, but hardly most. And that is different than a stock crash.

I know one thing for sure. Lots of people on DU have been predicting a crash since Trumps election.

I’m 10 years from retiring. Slowly reducing the percentage of my portfolio in stocks.

BSdetect

(8,998 posts)
23. We just ride any dips and there have been many.
Fri Mar 1, 2019, 11:00 AM
Mar 2019

Selling off means paying a lot of tax.

If you have enough cash to survive real emergencies then stay in stocks.

Johonny

(20,879 posts)
24. Did already. Went to a 40/60 mix last November.
Fri Mar 1, 2019, 11:07 AM
Mar 2019

With interest rates rising, all in on the stock market is not such a great idea.

PoindexterOglethorpe

(25,881 posts)
25. There seems to be an underlying belief that buying stocks
Fri Mar 1, 2019, 01:16 PM
Mar 2019

is closer to playing roulette or Blackjack at a casino than actually investing in companies. That's not true. Unless you're dumb enough to put all your money in day trading of penny stocks, which I doubt anyone here is doing, or admitting to.

As has already been pointed out, DU is not the place to get investment advice. But there are some general things that you can learn here, such has having a diversified portfolio, investing for the long term, being very skeptical of so-called experts, especially the ones who are screaming "BUY" or "SELL" very loudly from your TV or from some scam email you've received. Do some research. Understand what you are getting into. Be aware of fees.

Something else I want to point out. For a long time the conventional wisdom was that your stock vs bond percentages should be 100 minus your age, and that's the percentage that should be in stocks, mainly because it was assumed that switching over to bonds as you age, especially in retirement, you're investing more "safely". Here's the problem. In the long run bonds underperform inflation. Even in old age you need growth in your portfolio. Plus, a lot of analysis shows that over time a 60% stocks, 40% bonds does the very best.

Back in the heyday of inflation, bonds looked like a very good deal, and probably were.

I'll just end with repeating two things I say often in these discussions: You can't time the market, and the market frequently makes new highs, but doesn't make new lows. And that last one is really the most important.

MiniMe

(21,718 posts)
26. That has tax implications
Fri Mar 1, 2019, 01:23 PM
Mar 2019

If you pull your money out, you owe taxes on any increase in the value. You don't owe the taxes until you sell it. So no, I wouldn't try to game the market, you could end up on the short side

Dem2

(8,168 posts)
27. Yes
Fri Mar 1, 2019, 01:25 PM
Mar 2019

I'm a little worried. I already upped my percent of bonds to 25% end last Jan at the urging of Vanguard, which turned out to be a good move as the market did slump after that and my bond % went up to 30% (indicates relative loss in stock WRT bonds.) Since stocks usually grow faster than bonds, rebalancing is probably a good idea to look at every year or two anyway. Since I'm also getting older and my recommended % for bonds is 30%, I may do that while my account is almost back to it's peak achieved last year around this time.

 

Drunken Irishman

(34,857 posts)
28. I haven't found anything that suggests most economists are predicting a crash by next year...
Fri Mar 1, 2019, 01:29 PM
Mar 2019

In fact, most economists seem to be lowering their recession indicators beyond 2020 and the only thing that I can see crashing the stock market will be an unlikely recession.

JCMach1

(27,572 posts)
29. too many factors here... if you are in companies that are not overbought,
Fri Mar 1, 2019, 01:30 PM
Mar 2019

and the company is healthy... No, you don't sell...

On the flipside if you are in a company that is way too many x earnings in a negative environment...

However, it's also about risk. IF I owned it, I would dump a stock like Tesla for example. However, if you can handle the risk, Tesla might make it.

Remember how many years Amazon wasn't profitable?

So, take a close look at your portfolio, decide on a level of risk you want and act accordingly.

I am not rich, but I made a lot of money out of the 2008 crash because I had a lot of cash at the time that I put into oversold blue chips.

Be smart!

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
30. Don't bother timing the market. Put money in and don't look at it
Fri Mar 1, 2019, 01:31 PM
Mar 2019

Once you turn 50, start transferring some of that money from securities to fixed income. But other than that don't even look at it.

Fiendish Thingy

(15,651 posts)
31. Bad idea
Fri Mar 1, 2019, 01:36 PM
Mar 2019

Stay in a diversified, balanced portfolio and you’ll be fine.

Our portfolio has weathered the crashes of 1987, 2001, 2008 and despite dips during these periods (the dips were much shallower than the rest of the market), went on to make significant gains the rest of the time.

If we had pulled our money out of the market until after an expected crash, we would have missed a lot of gains.

comradebillyboy

(10,174 posts)
33. Then I'd have to pay capital gains and taxes on deferred income
Fri Mar 1, 2019, 01:57 PM
Mar 2019

My paper losses from riding out the lows would be made up in a couple of years and I still be able to buy at the market low.

PoindexterOglethorpe

(25,881 posts)
38. And today the Dow closed up 110 points on the day,
Fri Mar 1, 2019, 05:17 PM
Mar 2019

down a few points from Monday, and not that far off its all time high.

lindysalsagal

(20,726 posts)
39. Never bought anything in the first place: I have nothing to worry about. So, yeah.
Fri Mar 1, 2019, 07:22 PM
Mar 2019

I like to sleep at night.

lastlib

(23,271 posts)
40. yes, I am strongly considering.
Fri Mar 1, 2019, 07:25 PM
Mar 2019

Cannot absorb another 2008, and with tRumpski, it's coming. Looking at pulling out what I've gained back since 2009, moving $$ to cash/short-duration investments. If there is a fight over debt limit before September, T-bonds are going to stink, equities will be beyond stink, and mybackyard coffee can may be my only salvation.

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