General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsAnyone else thinking of pulling their money out of the stock market until after the next crash?
Most economists are predicting a crash by next year and the market has basically leveled off since the beginning of 2018. It has recovered a bit from the slump a few months ago close to where it peaked at in early 2018. I don't see it going up much more before the next crash and if I wait too long there is always the chance of the crash occurring early and I would be kicking myself.
Anyone else having the same worries and wanting to jump ship before the iceberg hits? If so where are you thinking of moving your money that is now in stocks?
Edited: Deleted the article I linked to after I read it. Should have read it first before linking as its title was dishonest.
Aussie105
(5,420 posts)saw a global slump, but recovery in Jan/Feb saw things back to normal.
Now is a perfect time to pull out of the market, yes. Or at least move to more secure options.
PoindexterOglethorpe
(25,881 posts)There are those who took everything out the day after Trump was elected. The market has gone up some seven thousand points since then. A couple of months ago people were freaking out because we'd finally had an actual market correction for the first time in a decade. It's since recovered.
Here's something else to keep in mind. The market makes new highs on a somewhat regular basis. Go check out the last time it reached a new low.
Now do some research on what sort of mix of stocks and bonds does best over the long term.
The main thing is to be decently diversified. Also, if you have spare cash, buy on the dips. If you don't want to be 100% invested in the market, then don't be. But taking everything out is a very bad idea.
Quixote1818
(28,960 posts)not predicting something small the next time.
PoindexterOglethorpe
(25,881 posts)from September to December was a correction.
I'm not exactly an expert, but I will repeat that trying to time the market is essentially impossible. Sure, there could be another very large drop as there was a decade ago, but there's no way of knowing when it will start or when it will bottom out. And again, a lot of people figured Trump would be a total disaster and that the market would bottom out once he was elected, but that didn't happen.
My real point is that I understand some nervousness and wanting to take some profits. But sell everything? What if you'd done that in November of 2016?
I have a good financial advisor whom I trust. I do feel a bit nervous sometimes, which is probably normal, especially at my age, 70. But at the end of last year I started taking income from two annuities he got me into, which means that my current guaranteed income streams are sufficient for a modest life.
Oh, and I know annuities have a bad rap. There are annuities and there are annuities, and I'm certain that getting me into those two was one of the best things he did for me.
FBaggins
(26,757 posts)It simply isnt true that most economists are predicting a collapse by next year - nor is it true that the market is overdue for a correction since we just had one that came just shy of qualifying as a bear market.
That doesnt mean that the market cant fall substantially from here... but attempts to time the marke (which require not just knowing when to get out, but also when to get back in) are almost never successful
KPN
(15,649 posts)I'm only about 16% invested in equities at the moment -- for this reason.
Homoudont
(36 posts)PoindexterOglethorpe is correct. There are a lot of people smarter then you and I and they can't time the market. Put it this way if you were to invest in the S&P 500 over a 30 year span you will beat 99% of the portfolio managers on wall street. The only two managers that can beat the index funds over a long period of time is Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet. Lynch is retired and I am fine finishing 2nd to Buffet.
radical noodle
(8,012 posts)but where to put it? Maybe not taking it out of the market but putting it into something safer.
briv1016
(1,570 posts)All my money's in Bitcoin.
PoindexterOglethorpe
(25,881 posts)(Just got done watching some James Veitch videos, the guy who engages scammers and usually says that he's convinced hummus has a huge future. Just love him.)
NRaleighLiberal
(60,018 posts)phylny
(8,385 posts)My husband and I are retiring this year. We are diversified and will stay in the stock market in a way appropriate to our ages.
Moostache
(9,897 posts)If you have money that you will need in the next 12-36 months in the market, then it should NOT be in stocks; otherwise, buy the dips and dollar cost average to take advantage of the market movements - when you have a long time line to recover, buying through a dip is the same as buying stocks on sale as long as you invest in low-fee indexed funds.
Put another way...if you are drawing down assets (in retirement) or getting ready to soon, then diversify and get as broad as possible.
RainCaster
(10,912 posts)I'm only a few years from retirement, I can't afford to rebuild my 401k again.
LakeArenal
(28,837 posts)madville
(7,412 posts)I'm not drawing anything out for another 17 years minimum though, plenty of time to ride the waves. If I sold everything today or put it in bonds the market would go up 10% next week.
Hekate
(90,774 posts)sinkingfeeling
(51,470 posts)UniteFightBack
(8,231 posts)mnhtnbb
(31,401 posts)and pulled everything out of the market. I knew we were facing a shitshow with 45. Although I'm sorry to have missed that run through 2017 (I started getting back in fall 2017), I don't regret protecting my assets. And I bought heavily back in last December when the market tanked.
I'm retired and a widow. I only buy dividend producing equities. Those companies tend to hold value better in downswings. I'm not going to make a killing in any of those stocks, but that's not my goal. My investments are intended to produce income to augment my SS and pension (survivor's benefit) and preserve capital.
Because we sold our house before my husband died, I am able to hold 5 years worth of living expenses (what is needed in addition to SS and the pension) in cash. So I feel pretty confident I can ride out any market swings at this point.
As long as Dems control the House, I'm not worried about SS. If they hadn't taken control last November, my strategy might be different because I would be a lot more worried my benefit could be drastically changed by greedy Republicans.
spanone
(135,861 posts)cbdo2007
(9,213 posts)Take your pick, your guess is as good as anyone elses, but history shows the best returns always come from just leaving your money in the market until you retire and then taking it out in small regular chunks.
onenote
(42,747 posts)Talk to a professional. A market advisor not an "economist".
You can find articles where "top economists" are predicting a crash in 2016, 2017, 2018....
Here's one from August 2017. The market has increased by nearly 20 percent since this article. http://fortune.com/2017/08/10/stock-market-crash-today-down-bubble-2017/
GulfCoast66
(11,949 posts)Some are predicting a recession, but hardly most. And that is different than a stock crash.
I know one thing for sure. Lots of people on DU have been predicting a crash since Trumps election.
Im 10 years from retiring. Slowly reducing the percentage of my portfolio in stocks.
BSdetect
(8,998 posts)Selling off means paying a lot of tax.
If you have enough cash to survive real emergencies then stay in stocks.
Johonny
(20,879 posts)With interest rates rising, all in on the stock market is not such a great idea.
Canoe52
(2,949 posts)50% in the mattress 50% in saving accounts.
onenote
(42,747 posts)Canoe52
(2,949 posts)PoindexterOglethorpe
(25,881 posts)is closer to playing roulette or Blackjack at a casino than actually investing in companies. That's not true. Unless you're dumb enough to put all your money in day trading of penny stocks, which I doubt anyone here is doing, or admitting to.
As has already been pointed out, DU is not the place to get investment advice. But there are some general things that you can learn here, such has having a diversified portfolio, investing for the long term, being very skeptical of so-called experts, especially the ones who are screaming "BUY" or "SELL" very loudly from your TV or from some scam email you've received. Do some research. Understand what you are getting into. Be aware of fees.
Something else I want to point out. For a long time the conventional wisdom was that your stock vs bond percentages should be 100 minus your age, and that's the percentage that should be in stocks, mainly because it was assumed that switching over to bonds as you age, especially in retirement, you're investing more "safely". Here's the problem. In the long run bonds underperform inflation. Even in old age you need growth in your portfolio. Plus, a lot of analysis shows that over time a 60% stocks, 40% bonds does the very best.
Back in the heyday of inflation, bonds looked like a very good deal, and probably were.
I'll just end with repeating two things I say often in these discussions: You can't time the market, and the market frequently makes new highs, but doesn't make new lows. And that last one is really the most important.
MiniMe
(21,718 posts)If you pull your money out, you owe taxes on any increase in the value. You don't owe the taxes until you sell it. So no, I wouldn't try to game the market, you could end up on the short side
I'm a little worried. I already upped my percent of bonds to 25% end last Jan at the urging of Vanguard, which turned out to be a good move as the market did slump after that and my bond % went up to 30% (indicates relative loss in stock WRT bonds.) Since stocks usually grow faster than bonds, rebalancing is probably a good idea to look at every year or two anyway. Since I'm also getting older and my recommended % for bonds is 30%, I may do that while my account is almost back to it's peak achieved last year around this time.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)In fact, most economists seem to be lowering their recession indicators beyond 2020 and the only thing that I can see crashing the stock market will be an unlikely recession.
JCMach1
(27,572 posts)and the company is healthy... No, you don't sell...
On the flipside if you are in a company that is way too many x earnings in a negative environment...
However, it's also about risk. IF I owned it, I would dump a stock like Tesla for example. However, if you can handle the risk, Tesla might make it.
Remember how many years Amazon wasn't profitable?
So, take a close look at your portfolio, decide on a level of risk you want and act accordingly.
I am not rich, but I made a lot of money out of the 2008 crash because I had a lot of cash at the time that I put into oversold blue chips.
Be smart!
Recursion
(56,582 posts)Once you turn 50, start transferring some of that money from securities to fixed income. But other than that don't even look at it.
Fiendish Thingy
(15,651 posts)Stay in a diversified, balanced portfolio and youll be fine.
Our portfolio has weathered the crashes of 1987, 2001, 2008 and despite dips during these periods (the dips were much shallower than the rest of the market), went on to make significant gains the rest of the time.
If we had pulled our money out of the market until after an expected crash, we would have missed a lot of gains.
comradebillyboy
(10,174 posts)My paper losses from riding out the lows would be made up in a couple of years and I still be able to buy at the market low.
PoindexterOglethorpe
(25,881 posts)down a few points from Monday, and not that far off its all time high.
lindysalsagal
(20,726 posts)I like to sleep at night.
lastlib
(23,271 posts)Cannot absorb another 2008, and with tRumpski, it's coming. Looking at pulling out what I've gained back since 2009, moving $$ to cash/short-duration investments. If there is a fight over debt limit before September, T-bonds are going to stink, equities will be beyond stink, and mybackyard coffee can may be my only salvation.