General Discussion

Gabby Hayes

(289 posts) Fri Aug 24, 2012, 08:23 AM Aug 2012

Tropical Storm Watch for Jamaica --- Isaac not following the forecast?

At 5:30 a.m. (CDT) the government of Jamaica issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the island.

According to the the 7 a.m. (CDT) bulletin from the National Hurricane Center, Isaac has strengthed to 50 mph and is moving past the southern coast of the Dominican Republic. It is currently centered 220 miles Southeast of Port Au Prince, Haiti, and still moving west.

If Isaac continues to jog west and miss the treacherous mountains of Haiti and Cuba (as the Tropical Storm Watch at Jamaica may suggest) and a Tropical Storm Watch is issued for the Cayman Islands, then Isaac might start aiming for the Yucatan Channel and the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Or it could also mean Isaac has it eye on Central America.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/240848.shtml

10 replies

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Tropical Storm Watch for Jamaica --- Isaac not following the forecast? (Original Post) Gabby Hayes Aug 2012 OP

The European model have been saying this for days malaise Aug 2012 #1

I think Isaac is headed for NOLA. ananda Aug 2012 #4

still looks like it's heading up the eastern GOM, but that can surely change Baclava Aug 2012 #10

I wonder if rMoney has flown down to the Cayman Islands to guard his money. HopeHoops Aug 2012 #2

5 day tracking map ananda Aug 2012 #3

The long range track can be off, JayhawkSD Aug 2012 #5

the computer models have a hard time tracking without a clear starting point Baclava Aug 2012 #6

Did you say the Cayman Islands? Hugabear Aug 2012 #7

"I hope Issac DODGES my FatCat Tax Dodge in the Caymans." - Willard (R - 1%) Berlum Aug 2012 #8

That sounds like an oxymoron. Present not following future?? cbdo2007 Aug 2012 #9

malaise

(269,157 posts)

1. The European model have been saying this for days

Reply to Gabby Hayes (Original post)

Fri Aug 24, 2012, 08:32 AM

Aug 2012

and Isaac sure looks like a threat to us come tomorrow. The good news is that it is only 50mph - the bad news is the amount of rain coming,.

ananda

(28,876 posts)

4. I think Isaac is headed for NOLA.

Reply to malaise (Reply #1)

Fri Aug 24, 2012, 08:59 AM

Aug 2012

Not good.

Baclava

(12,047 posts)

10. still looks like it's heading up the eastern GOM, but that can surely change

Reply to ananda (Reply #4)

Fri Aug 24, 2012, 12:32 PM

Aug 2012

latest GFS model run...

HopeHoops

(47,675 posts)

2. I wonder if rMoney has flown down to the Cayman Islands to guard his money.

Reply to Gabby Hayes (Original post)

Fri Aug 24, 2012, 08:42 AM

Aug 2012

ananda

(28,876 posts)

3. 5 day tracking map

Reply to Gabby Hayes (Original post)

Fri Aug 24, 2012, 08:59 AM

Aug 2012

JayhawkSD

(3,163 posts)

5. The long range track can be off,

Reply to Gabby Hayes (Original post)

Fri Aug 24, 2012, 09:02 AM

Aug 2012

but not by anything close to what you are suggesting. Central America?

Original track had it right on the west coast of the Florida penninsula. Currently it is forecast to make landfall near Alabama Mississippi border. The discussion is that it may bend slightly eastward again as it heads north.

The strength of a tropical storm is determined by many things other than surface water temperature, and even with it's present predicted track over open water, Issac is predicted to be barely into Cat 1 when it makes landfall. The concern for Haiti is rainfall, which could be disasterous, since some 400,000 people still live in tents.

Baclava

(12,047 posts)

6. the computer models have a hard time tracking without a clear starting point

Reply to Gabby Hayes (Original post)

Fri Aug 24, 2012, 11:34 AM

Aug 2012

Isaac has no defined eyewall yet, and it's going to get bounced around and torn up by Cuba and the other islands, it's still a bit of a mess to figure out

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