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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsTrump's 2020 map from hell
Recent polling in a slew of states that carried President Trump to his thin win in 2016 show him starting 2020 in a deep hole.
What's new: Based on demographic changes, Republicans for the first time have authentic worries about Arizona, Georgia, Texas and other states they once took for granted.
From the north: Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are harder this time because Hillary Clinton, a turnoff for many working-class voters, won't be on the ballot.
From the south: Demographics are making North Carolina, Georgia, Texas and Arizona more competitive, and realistically in play.
That's part of the reason for the fascination with more centrist Democrats like Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Beto O'Rourke and Joe Biden: The states that Trump won, but could easily lose, are swingy not super-liberal.
Among the holes in his 2016 map:
In Wisconsin, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel wrote after a statewide poll in January that Trump "has a precarious path to victory," based on the facts that his job approval was just 44%, opposition was more intense than support, and Democrats were more unified than Republicans.
In Michigan, the Detroit Free Press reports that Trump faces "serious headwinds": "Less than half of likely voters believe hes doing a good job, according to some recent polls, and many, if not most, plan to vote for someone else."
"Pennsylvania meltdown triggers Republican alarms," Politico wrote after the midterms. "A GOP collapse threatens to torpedo Donald Trumps re-election prospects."
https://www.axios.com/trump-2020-election-map-swing-states-80f9aab1-e713-4c7d-a72a-24f3a87beb13.html
exboyfil
(17,865 posts)Nate Silver's model gives Trump an unusually high chance of winning. Could he be right?
https://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast
Liberals have tried to comfort themselves with the knowledge that FiveThirtyEight is an outlier among the six major forecasts, and that the other five give Trump between a 16 percent and a sub-1 percent chance of winning.
RandySF
(59,187 posts)edhopper
(33,614 posts)Carter and Bush I.
RandySF
(59,187 posts)edhopper
(33,614 posts)Trump is the least popular incompant in decades running for a second term
If he won again, it would be without the popular vote...again.
RandySF
(59,187 posts)edhopper
(33,614 posts)Hoover sounds right.
GaYellowDawg
(4,449 posts)Doesn't really apply in 2020.
RhodeIslandOne
(5,042 posts)Remember when Hillary was going to take 400+ EVs?
This country is still fucking stupid.
MyOwnPeace
(16,937 posts)you would love to believe it, but the way SO many sources are doing the "equal coverage" thing, as well as providing shaky data, it is so hard to know who to believe anymore. And it seems that some of the "dependable" sources are changing their own stance/position daily (depending on their advertising revenue?).
Oh, and then there's this: the actual election is a year and a half away!
Maven
(10,533 posts)"...because Hillary Clinton, a turnoff for many working-class voters..."
First of all, I think that you mean white working class. Secondly, Trump's voters skewed wealthier than HRC's. Thirdly, it's in no small part due to hacky journalism bros at places like Axios (and its precursor, Politico) parroting "Hillary is unlikeable" that many working-class voters voted for someone who is a parasite and fraudster who sees them as nothing but marks to be exploited. Seriously Axios, fuck you.
and Hillary won, election was stolen.
America DID NOT elect Trump.