Just some random thoughts on 2020 and He-who-shall-not-be-named.

So, what are the odds for 2020?

- The Republicans have way more vulnerable seats than the Democrats.

- The economy is overall doing okay but weaker than expected. There's a trend towards a slow-down in 2020, which will generate bad headlines for He-who-shall-not-be-named, even though he's only partially to blame.

- The tax-scam backfired. People realize they've been had.

- Democrats will run on healthcare, transparency, anti-corruption measures, an overhaul of the economy towards green industries, fairer taxation, worker's rights...

- He-who-shall-not-be-named wants to run on healthcare without a healthcare-plan.
He wants to run as the law&order President while neck-deep in criminal investigations for conspiracy, tax-fraud, insurance-fraud, bank-fraud and possibly money-laundering, while at the same time attacking the FBI as being corrupt.
He wants to run on the economy when it's far, far behind his promises.
He wants to run on national security while being a failure with North Korea and Iran.
He wants to run on family-values while grabbing pussies, checking out naked teenage-girls and fucking porn-stars.

- He-who-shall-not-be-named's only viable campaign-strategy is fear and immigration.
If the theme of the 2020 election is immigration, he has a good chance of mobilizing his base.
If the theme changes (like it did in 2008 midway through campaign-season, from national security to the economy), he will be in trouble.

- He-who-shall-not-be-named's hard bottom in the polls is 30%. That means, about 60% of republican voters are hardcore Trump-voters, while 40% are convincable. As Buttigieg and Sanders have shown, it's possible to reach those republican voters: MAGA is a lie and Medicare-for-All just makes sense.

- And lastly...
After 4 years of constant scandal and outrage, we're all worn out.
Can you imagine what will happen if the Democrats give the voters a candidate who's f**king normal?

"If you elect me, I promise I won't tweet something embarrassing while sitting on the shitter at 3 am, because that's just unpresidential."