IN-05 Moves to Lean Republican Followings Brooks's Retirement

The announcement Friday morning that Indiana GOP Rep. Susan Brooks won’t run for re-election moves her suburban Indianapolis seat from Solid Republican to the Lean Republican column and gives Democrats a pickup opportunity in the lone congressional district in the Hoosier State that’s been trending their way.

But as problematic for Republicans is the message that Brooks’s retirement sends — she is the recruitment chair for the National Republican Congressional Committee and has been a leading voice for trying to bring more GOP women into their ranks. Now, they’re losing one of their 13 women in what would have been a safe seat.

This growing district just north of Indianapolis gave President Trump 53% in 2016 — his lowest total in any Indiana district he won — and down from the nearly 58% that Mitt Romney got here in 2012. Brooks, the former deputy mayor of Indianapolis, has been easily re-elected, taking 57% last November. In 2016, she outperformed Trump by 9 points. The Hamilton County base of the district, which makes up over 40% of the district’s population, has also been trending away from Republicans, given its increasing income and education levels. In 2012 Romney got 66% in Hamilton, but Trump got just 57% four years later.

In making her announcement to the Indianapolis Star, Brooks tries to dispel what will be the obvious conclusions drawn from her decision -- that she’s leaving because life in the minority is no fun and she doesn’t think they can win back the majority in 2020.



https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/indiana-house/05-moves-lean-republican-followings-brookss-retirement