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Morgan Stanley reading on economy collapses (Original Post) Johnny2X2X Jun 2019 OP
I hate to welcome a recession edhopper Jun 2019 #1
He loses without a recession. Johnny2X2X Jun 2019 #2
+1 sandensea Jun 2019 #4
I think it's the tail end of the OBAMA recovery. Those recoveries calimary Jun 2019 #12
The Trump slump sandensea Jun 2019 #3
And the republicans, Mr.Bill Jun 2019 #5
Absolutely. sandensea Jun 2019 #6
It's will be Obama's fault of course or maybe Hillary's redstateblues Jun 2019 #7
"recession" is just another excuse for trump orleans Jun 2019 #8
Please let it happen soon if it's going to happen bitterross Jun 2019 #9
If it is going to happen, the sooner the better Johnny2X2X Jun 2019 #11
Good article related to this on Bloomberg..... KY_EnviroGuy Jun 2019 #10

sandensea

(21,639 posts)
4. +1
Sun Jun 16, 2019, 11:32 PM
Jun 2019

Anyone who's tried to recreate a Bush bubble, gets a Bush crash.

Just ask Trump's BFF Macri in Argentina.

We're just lucky we have the Fed to bail us out of these GOPee debacles.

calimary

(81,322 posts)
12. I think it's the tail end of the OBAMA recovery. Those recoveries
Mon Jun 17, 2019, 12:14 PM
Jun 2019

recoveries have an up and a down. The up part never sustains forever. Soon enough it inevitably starts sliding back down, equalizing or moderating. Wha goes up must come down. It’s cyclical. I suspect that’s why he’s angling for war now. I think he knows he needs that poll boost that the wrong-wing “mighty Wurlitzer” will crank up to push public opinion to “stand by our president. We’re at war! We HAVE TO stand by OUR president!!!”

I suspect he or his advisors or Brad Parscale remember what happened to dubya. A war last time silenced the bush/cheney critics - at least for awhile. And George the Second saw his poll numbers go way up. It was after 9/11 and Man-oh-Man did that boost his numbers. Almost the whole nation wanted to go kick somebody’s ass internationally for what happened on September 11th. And dubya delivered. Bombing the crap out of Afghanistan and then beating the PR drums nonstop to spread it to Iraq. And then kept that war cranking as the clock ticked toward what he hoped would be his re-election. And it worked.

We got PLAYED. BIGTIME. And we have to hope we won’t get fooled again. Maybe the MAGAts will allow themselves to get fooled. But the rest of us better not. And always remember: there are MORE of US than there are of the MAGAts. That’s why his numbers will NEVER grow higher than the mid-40s. Because the majority is NOT with him.

I bet he’s betting that a war could change that.

sandensea

(21,639 posts)
3. The Trump slump
Sun Jun 16, 2019, 11:30 PM
Jun 2019

The inevitable result of putting brigands like Mnuchin, Cohn, and Kudlow in key economic policy posts.

Mr.Bill

(24,303 posts)
5. And the republicans,
Sun Jun 16, 2019, 11:35 PM
Jun 2019

rather than trying to fix or prevent this, will put all their efforts, strategy and skills into figuring out how to blame it on the Democrats.

sandensea

(21,639 posts)
6. Absolutely.
Sun Jun 16, 2019, 11:38 PM
Jun 2019

And if Biden wins next year, they'll try to create a crisis if they things are starting to look up again.

 

bitterross

(4,066 posts)
9. Please let it happen soon if it's going to happen
Mon Jun 17, 2019, 12:41 AM
Jun 2019

Trump needs to have this tied to his administration.

Johnny2X2X

(19,067 posts)
11. If it is going to happen, the sooner the better
Mon Jun 17, 2019, 09:06 AM
Jun 2019

As with all previous recessions under their watch, the Republicans will spend a solid year pretending it isn't happening, then they'll move immediately into "we have recovered and it was Dems fault we had a recession."

Right now, the timing is politically advantageous for Dems. The ads write themselves and the narrative can very easily be controlled. "The American people are smart, they know the first couple years of a presidency the economy is inherited, what we are seeing right now is the first report card on the Trump economy." Framing it that way would be devastating to Trump. Basically, the good economy we had was left over from the Obama policies, this is the Trump result, and that is mostly true. A recession right now would gut Trump of his only thing to brag about.

There is nothing to cheer about when a recession hits, good people are being harmed, their lives are being thrown into disorder and the most vulnerable will suffer. I do not want a recession, at all, period. But it looks like we are getting on, and the only way for it to be as shallow as possible is for the recession to be used to help get Trump out.

KY_EnviroGuy

(14,492 posts)
10. Good article related to this on Bloomberg.....
Mon Jun 17, 2019, 02:33 AM
Jun 2019

if you have not ran out of free page views, LOL. They're a bit less alarmist but see some indicators that are concerning.

Tips for Spotting a U.S. Recession Before It Becomes Official
By Reade Pickert
June 15, 2019

See: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-15/tips-for-spotting-a-u-s-recession-before-it-becomes-official

(snip)

As the U.S. nears a record-long expansion in July, the conversation is increasingly turning to when it will all end. Recessions are inherently hard to spot. The National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, a panel whose determinations of when expansions begin and end are accepted as official, generally waits about a year to make a call. By the time a sustained downturn is evident in data like payrolls or gross domestic product, a contraction may have already begun.

Recession fears ebbed Friday as solid retail sales suggested consumer spending remains healthy. But investors still expect a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut in July after other recent figures showed slower job gains and low inflation, while President Donald Trump’s tariff threats weigh on businesses. And the chance of a recession over the next 12 months has risen to 30% from 25%, according to a June 7-12 survey of economists.

If you have the stomach for it, also see the article titled "Trump Warns of Epic Stock Market Crash If He's Not Re-Elected", as if anyone is going to hear his bullshit.

KY.......
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