Goldman Sachs Forecast Sees Trump as Slight Favorite

Be sure to read the very last sentence of this article, just below the graph. -- Don

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June 25, 2019 at 8:06 am EDT By Taegan Goddard

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

A new Goldman Sachs chart gives President Trump a slight edge for re-election based on just two pieces of information: presidential approval and economic growth.

Trump’s approval is at a historic low and shows he is slightly less popular than Jimmy Carter was when he lost his reelection bid in 1980.

However, economic growth has been generally strong under Trump. The Goldman forecast uses average growth in gross domestic product over two years leading up to the quarter before the election. Since those numbers are not yet available for Trump, the chart uses Goldman’s economic forecast of 2.2% GDP growth. That makes the Trump economy as strong as the economy that Bill Clinton and George W. Bush each rode to re-election.

As the chart below shows, while Trump is certainly not a runaway favorite re-election, the economy is just strong enough to make up for his low approval rating.

One major caveat: This methodology suggested Barack Obama would lose his re-election campaign in 2012. That obviously did not happen.

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https://politicalwire.com/2019/06/25/goldman-sachs-forecast-sees-trump-as-slight-favorite/