Economic Trade Wind May Soon Become a Head Wind for Trump

We are sometimes leery when it comes to items about the economy and where it is headed. There are so many tea leaves to read, and nobody seems to have figured out exactly which ones are the right ones. That said, what is knowable is how people are feeling about the economy. And many farmers, at very least, are feeling the pinch from Donald Trump's wars, and are not happy.

The reasons for their unhappiness are easy enough to discern. Many of them have crops they cannot sell, because their usual business partners (e.g., China) are currently not buying. They also don't know what to plant, if anything, in anticipation of the next growing season. Income is down 50% in just six years, and debt is way up. In fact, as many of them take out loans to make ends meet, the total debt held by farmers will exceed $427 billion, which is the highest figure in nearly 40 years.

There is both polling and anecdotal evidence of the farmers' growing discontent. In terms of the former, numerous polls have shown growing skepticism about the trade war in general, and about the possibility of a quick resolution, in particular. Note that the farmers are still with the President for now (nearly 60% approve of the job he is doing), but the trendlines have to be worrisome for the administration. For example, a poll from Purdue University reveals that in just one month, the percentage of farmers who think the trade war will be resolved in favor of the U.S. has dropped by 6 points, from 71% to 65%. Anecdotally, meanwhile, quite a few outlets have recently done pieces like this one from the Washington Post, featuring interviews with cranky farmers. "This trade thing is going to kill us," says one. "People are starting to say, 'I don't know how we're going to survive this,'" says another.

This is a potential double whammy for Trump. First, if he loses even a fraction of the farming vote that he got in 2016 (say, 5%), he's in deep trouble, given that he won by razor thin margins in several states that have lots of farmers. On top of that, if the farming economy gets dragged into the mud by Trump's policies, it could send the economy into a recession. As we noted, we're a little leery of folks who claim they can read the tea leaves, but it is the case that many of those folks are saying that we're awash in indicators of a looming recession. And even if one does not buy into the economists' woo, there's this basic logic: In just one week, the current economic expansion will become the longest in U.S. history, at 10 years and counting. The party can't last forever. It never does.

more
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2019/Pres/Maps/Jun25.html#item-3