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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsHere's how Trump hopes to recreate his 2016 presidential win -- and how Democrats can send him packin
Heres how Trump hopes to recreate his 2016 presidential win and how Democrats can send him packing
By Matthew Chapman at Raw Story
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/07/heres-how-trump-hopes-to-recreate-his-2016-presidential-win-and-how-democrats-can-send-him-packing/
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Trumps making a bet that he can link the Democratic nominee to this squad the aforementioned group of congresswomen of color that he has lobbed attacks at. Remember, thats exactly how he won in 2016: an unpopular Democratic opponent, said Enten. In Wisconsin, for example, Trump had a favorable rating of only 35%. He won the state because he ran up a 37-point margin against Clinton among the 22% of the electorate who had an unfavorable view of both Clinton and Trump.
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Trumps Republican Party lost the 2018 midterm elections, which were held under similar conditions as today. Trumps net approval rating was -9 points in the 2018 exit poll. The result was that Trumps Republican Party lost 40 House seats and the House popular vote by 9 points, wrote Enten. In the final weeks of that cycle, Republicans were not helped by Trump continuously pointing out in the final weeks of that campaign that migrants were coming up through Central America. Voters who decided in the final month of the 2018 campaign were as likely to vote Democratic as those who decided before then.
It remains unclear if Trump can compensate his unpopularity by demonizing the Democratic nominee this time around, said Enten. And remember, Trump also risks raising turnout among nonwhite voters. Thats not a big deal in a state like Wisconsin, which is very white. It could, however, take Sunbelt states moving to the left, like Arizona and Texas, and put them into play for the Democrats.
Entens analysis suggests important things for Democrats: stay unified, fight on the Midwest turf that Trump only barely won before, and focus on turnout in racially diversifying Southern areas that are trending left. If this happens, Trumps narrow path to victory in 2016 may not be replicable.
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Demovictory9
(32,467 posts)Everyman Jackal
(271 posts)OnDoutside
(19,965 posts)paid off, while they're just not going to have that amount of time, by the time the race gets down to 2. Democrats need to take the battle to Trump, and fight on the front foot.