Is the Emerging Democratic Majority Finally Coming to Pass?

https://prospect.org/article/emerging-democratic-majority-finally-coming-pass

Is the Emerging Democratic Majority Finally Coming to Pass?
Paul Waldman
August 11, 2019
The suburbs may be slipping from the Republicans' grasp.

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Consider the stunning news that The Los Angeles Times reported last week: Orange County, California—cradle of the Reagan Revolution, former hotbed of John Birch Society support, birthplace of the megachurch—now has more registered Democrats than Republicans. A couple of decades ago that would have seemed as likely as San Francisco becoming a Republican stronghold.

In 2018, four Democrats ousted Republican members of Congress whose districts include parts of Orange County. And that election saw similar results in suburban swing districts all over the country, where Democrats beat enough Republican members to enable their party to take back the House of Representatives.

And now, not just Trump’s message but that of the entire Republican Party seems designed to alienate those voters. Right now the issue dominating the headlines is guns, where Republicans are not only out of step with a public that is increasingly supportive of new restrictions, but are about to betray that public sentiment yet again.

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There is a growing awareness within the Republican Party that inaction on guns, combined with the administration’s unfathomably cruel immigration policies and the distastefulness of Trump’s relentless racism, is alienating more and more suburban voters, especially women. A recent Washington Post/ABC News poll found Trump’s approval at 51 percent among suburban men, but only 37 percent among suburban women. As one GOP donor told Bloomberg News, “Republicans are headed for extinction in the suburbs if they don’t distance themselves from the NRA.” Which they can’t do. And there will be more mass shootings between now and next November.

One can imagine a different kind of Republican Party that could compete better with suburban moderates, not to mention do better with non-white and younger voters. It might advocate for lower taxes and a lighter government footprint, but consent to more sensible gun policies and get rid of its race-baiting. The trouble is that the current Republican Party has decided that no priority is higher than holding on to its white, rural base—and in Donald Trump’s view, that requires a commitment to a white identity politics based on hatred and resentment. In an America that grows more diverse by the day, the GOP is actually getting whiter.

Three years into Trump’s term, it is no longer possible for any Republican voter to deny what their party is about. For most, it isn’t enough to get them to vote for a Democratic presidential candidate. But a significant number, perhaps even enough to swing the election, might just decide to stay home. If their losses in the suburbs continue, some in the party will plead that they need to change in order to retake power. There’s no telling if they’ll have the will to do it.