DCCC adds six more Trump districts to its 2020 target list

Florida’s 16th District
National Democrats added the 2018 nominee to its Red to Blue list for strong recruits, but Republican incumbent Vern Buchanan still won a seventh term last fall by 9 points. Trump carried this Gulf Coast district by 11 points in 2016, but it’s more suburban and educated than the rest of the Sunshine State. Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates the race Solid Republican.

Iowa’s 2nd District
Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack is not seeking an eighth term in 2020. He held on to this district in 2016, even as it swung to Trump, who carried it by 4 points. While Loebsack had no trouble winning reelection last fall, Republicans are making the 2nd a top target this cycle. Inside Elections rates the race a Toss-up.

Michigan’s 3rd District
This district wouldn’t have been on the Democrats’ radar had Rep. Justin Amash not declared his independence from the GOP last month. Democrats anticipate that a three-way race, with Amash running as an independent, could create an opening for their candidate to break through. Trump carried the district by 9 points. Former President Barack Obama narrowly carried the district in 2008, according to calculations by Daily Kos Elections. Inside Elections rates the race Leans Republican.

Montana’s At-Large District
With GOP Rep. Greg Gianforte having filed to run for governor, Democrats think they might have a crack at this open seat, which Democrats contested in the 2017 special election and last year’s midterms. But despite winning statewide at the Senate and gubernatorial level in Montana, this House seat has proven elusive for Democrats. Trump carried Montana by 21 points in 2016, and Inside Elections rates the race Solid Republican

Ohio’s 12th District
GOP Rep. Troy Balderson narrowly won a special election here last summer and held the seat in the November general election. Democrats see another chance in a well-educated district, where suburban voters may have soured on the president. Trump carried the district by 11 points. Inside Elections rates the race Likely Republican.

Virginia’s 5th District
Freshman Republican Denver Riggleman won this seat last fall by about 7 points, while Trump carried it by 11 points two years earlier. But Democrats see it moving in their direction, and national Republicans expended resources here both in 2016 and 2018 to keep the seat red. Inside Elections rates the race Solid Republican.


https://www.rollcall.com/news/campaigns/dccc-adds-six-more-trump-districts-to-its-2020-target-list