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Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin

(108,101 posts)
Fri Aug 16, 2019, 07:06 PM Aug 2019

Analysis: 2 troubling signs for Trump in this new Fox News poll

President Trump fails to crack 40 percent in any matchup with a potential 2020 opponent in a new Fox News poll. And that may not be the worst of it for him.

The new Fox poll is arguably Trump’s worst of the early polls testing potential general-election matchups. He trails Joe Biden by 12 percentage points (50 percent to 38 percent), Sen. Bernie Sanders (Vt.) by nine points (48 to 39), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (Mass.) by seven (46 to 39) and Sen. Kamala D. Harris (Calif.) by six (45 to 39). That’s tied for his biggest deficit to date against Warren, according to RealClearPolitics, and it’s close to his biggest deficits against the others, too.

It’s just one poll of course, and even high-quality polls have margins of error. It’s possible Trump’s support percentage is really in the 40s, just like in most other polls.

But if you drill down, there are a couple other problematic pieces of this poll for Trump.

The first is his vote share versus his approval rating. There has been plenty of talk about Trump’s consistently low approval rating and how it sets him up for reelection. But in this poll, he doesn’t even completely lock down that vote. While he gets 38 to 39 percent in all four matchups, his approval rating is actually 43 percent. That means roughly 4 percent of registered voters say they approve of Trump but they’re not ready to vote for him.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/analysis-2-troubling-signs-for-trump-in-this-new-fox-news-poll/ar-AAFTEUZ?li=BBnb7Kz

Lowered expectations.

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Analysis: 2 troubling signs for Trump in this new Fox News poll (Original Post) Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Aug 2019 OP
This is nice ! BlueMississippi Aug 2019 #1
Another good sign empedocles Aug 2019 #2
Yeah! Thekaspervote Aug 2019 #3

Thekaspervote

(32,785 posts)
3. Yeah!
Fri Aug 16, 2019, 08:20 PM
Aug 2019

Here’s an interesting post from this morning... Jason Easley

4. Josh Marshall at TPM has a "Prime Members only" discussion of this...

Here is his final paragraph:

"I've said before that I think conventional wisdom is simply wrong about the 2020 election. President Trump is in much worse shape than people realize. An incumbent President with what at least until the last few days of warning signs remains a strong economy who can’t get to 40% against any of his probable challengers is in bad shape. There’s [sic] just no two ways about that. There may be limited utility in spreading that word. You want to run like you’re behind. But running like you’re behind can also turn into an enervating defeatism. So it is worth focusing on just how poor a position he seems to be in."

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