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bucolic_frolic

(43,188 posts)
Sun Aug 18, 2019, 09:48 AM Aug 2019

Does anyone understand the 2020 race? This scholar nailed the blue wave -- here's her forecast

"... even in these districts where Democrats ran Blue Dog candidates who were as unobtrusive as possible — with, exactly as you stated, the goal of not riling up Trump voters — the turnout for Republican voters in those districts was huge.

In fact, not only did Democrats not get the benefit of not stirring up the Trump base — the Trump base was stirred up and showed up in huge numbers — but by not tapping into anti-Trump sentiment in their own campaign strategy, by not intentionally activating that Trump angst, they paid a price in terms of their own base turnout. It was depressed, compared to other districts."

https://www.salon.com/2019/08/17/this-political-scientist-completely-nailed-the-2018-blue-wave-heres-her-2020-forecast/

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Does anyone understand the 2020 race? This scholar nailed the blue wave -- here's her forecast (Original Post) bucolic_frolic Aug 2019 OP
Does Salon still host H A Gooodman and Walter Bragman? comradebillyboy Aug 2019 #1
Interesting article. FM123 Aug 2019 #2
And we will never achieve many progressive KPN Aug 2019 #3
You need to know even most blue dogs are progressive, Hortensis Aug 2019 #7
Interesting read. I've seen a couple of articles by her b4. It makes a lot of sense. Thekaspervote Aug 2019 #4
If the blue wave was a larger turnout of core constituency, Hortensis Aug 2019 #5
Excellent article- strong argument against moderate, centrist, Status Quo strategy for 2020 nt Fiendish Thingy Aug 2019 #6
And, if we execute such a strategy, it could also force slight moderation bucolic_frolic Aug 2019 #8

comradebillyboy

(10,154 posts)
1. Does Salon still host H A Gooodman and Walter Bragman?
Sun Aug 18, 2019, 10:05 AM
Aug 2019

I don't give my clicks to sites that are hostile to Democrats.

FM123

(10,053 posts)
2. Interesting article.
Sun Aug 18, 2019, 10:50 AM
Aug 2019
People reading your article, people following me on Twitter — we forget how atypical we are, even in terms of those who are going to vote in the Democratic primary. Primary voters are already more active and aware and more typically engaged than average Americans, but still not like us. They’re not paying attention at all, not watching the debates, they're not reading news stories, they're not on political Twitter, reading political news sites, but they will vote.

KPN

(15,646 posts)
3. And we will never achieve many progressive
Sun Aug 18, 2019, 10:53 AM
Aug 2019

goals as long as we promote blue dogs. Many of these goals supported by a clear majority of voters nationwide. And we wonder why so many hold the opinion that both parties are the same.

I understand pragmatism, but find it so damned frustrating.

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
7. You need to know even most blue dogs are progressive,
Sun Aug 18, 2019, 11:15 AM
Aug 2019

just usually prefer more limited goals. Btw, there are 27 of them out of 235 in the house.

And that many moderate conservatives have always been progressive also. The Republican leadership says otherwise these days, so they don’t talk about it over there the way they used to. President Eisenhower proudly proclaimed himself a progressive conservative, as only one example of many. Every Republican president until this one has actually pursued some progressive goals In the middle of their small government goals. And if you ever chat with conservative neighbors and listen To what they say, not the vocabulary and slogans they use, you will find they want progressivism in government still even if their current leaders tell them they don’t.

Then there are, what, 89? members of the house progressive caucus? Of course, although they all consider themselves progressive, people like Sanders might be able to count on one hand the number they consider progressive. Then there are the 101 progressive liberals in the other caucus Sanders types like to dishonestly smear as conservative!

Since everything must be done by majority, if you really want to achieve your progressive goals, you need to ally with the 200-some progressives who do share your goals. Ten or less or over 200. That’s how it’s done, and it’s the only way it’s done. The choice is made is also a Measure of true progressivism, or something else.

Thekaspervote

(32,778 posts)
4. Interesting read. I've seen a couple of articles by her b4. It makes a lot of sense.
Sun Aug 18, 2019, 11:01 AM
Aug 2019

No longer support Salon thou

I can see her point about blue dogs, but IMHO there was some backtracking in her statements.. such as President Obama went too far with health care agenda i.e. the big loss in 2010.

My biggest takeaway was one we already know. When Dems vote we win

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
5. If the blue wave was a larger turnout of core constituency,
Sun Aug 18, 2019, 11:04 AM
Aug 2019

people who will vote left if they vote, that will be highly advantageous to us.

One of our biggest worries has been that people don’t vote the same in presidential races as they do in local. Presidential is more ideological, local more practical. That more conservative voters who in the main theory helped give us the blue wave in the midterms would vote Republican in the general.

But if it was mostly large turnout of people who are basically leftist, then we don’t face the same big risk of losing a bunch of briefly swung voters. The same factors, Trump and the Republicans, if anything should have as or even larger effect in the general election.

The rest is detail about what would work and each micro area best.

bucolic_frolic

(43,188 posts)
8. And, if we execute such a strategy, it could also force slight moderation
Sun Aug 18, 2019, 11:29 AM
Aug 2019

in the GOP side, which would convince a few of them not to vote. Addressing the $1.2 trillion annual budget deficit for example

This game of reasonableness can be played in both directions

Racism is not the only reason MAGAts vote. They like tax cuts too, since they get most of the money - OR THINK THEY DO.

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