Republicans Facing a Rough Road in the House

With Democrats marching to the left in the presidential primary, and new, progressive faces in Congress rising to prominence, some Republicans are confident in their relative standing. But they’ve got a difficult path to the House majority in 2020.

Republicans may dismiss a loss in the redo election in North Carolina next month or even celebrate Michigan Rep. Justin Amash’s decision to leave the GOP, but both scenarios raise their threshold for a majority. Republicans need a net gain of 19 or 20 seats next November.

The good news for Republicans is that, going back more than 60 years, the president’s party gained House seats in the last seven elections when a president ran for re-election. The bad news is that those gains usually followed a midterm in which the president’s party suffered heavy losses. In fact, the subsequent presidential cycle gains never amounted to more than 14 seats.

While Republicans are excited about the prospect of President Donald Trump energizing Republican voters, the political environment hasn’t changed much from the midterm elections, when Democrats gained 40 seats. According to the Real Clear Politics average as of Thursday, Democrats held a 9-point advantage on the generic ballot. Before the 2018 election, they held an 8-point advantage.



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