General Discussion

mindfulNJ

(2,367 posts) Mon Sep 23, 2019, 06:59 PM Sep 2019

Pelosi will change her mind

on impeachment...probably in the next few days. The tide seems to be turning with this Ukraine whistleblower issue. This is just my feeling...and hope. Hold on to your butts folks.

17 replies

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Pelosi will change her mind (Original Post) mindfulNJ Sep 2019 OP

I think so too. madaboutharry Sep 2019 #1

Yes mindfulNJ Sep 2019 #3

it's not Pelosi's mind that needs to be changed. it's the other members JI7 Sep 2019 #2

Hopefully mindfulNJ Sep 2019 #4

Pelosi does not have the votes Gothmog Sep 2019 #7

and that's why we need noise ... Hermit-The-Prog Sep 2019 #9

I think she is waiting for the point where Phoenix61 Sep 2019 #5

Analysis: The politics of pushing to impeach Trump aren't much less complicated than they were a wee Gothmog Sep 2019 #6

At least we will be able to show that we didn't jump on impeachment on day 1. NCLefty Sep 2019 #8

The Rs will simply say it was the D plan all along to impeach tRump, stopbush Sep 2019 #10

How we'll know if the impeachment dam starts to break Gothmog Sep 2019 #11

I know two newly elected Democrats who have not come out Gothmog Sep 2019 #12

I don't think so and I like Pelosi. I think she wants hard evidence of wrongdoing that she can chowder66 Sep 2019 #13

Seven House Freshman have published an amazing editorial Gothmog Sep 2019 #14

It does appear she might be coming round. egduj Sep 2019 #15

It's not she who's coming around StarfishSaver Sep 2019 #16

just do it demtenjeep Sep 2019 #17

madaboutharry

(40,223 posts)

1. I think so too.

Reply to mindfulNJ (Original post)

Mon Sep 23, 2019, 07:02 PM

Sep 2019

I would be very surprised if there is not a press conference in which she announces just that.

mindfulNJ

(2,367 posts)

3. Yes

Reply to madaboutharry (Reply #1)

Mon Sep 23, 2019, 07:03 PM

Sep 2019

Agree completely

JI7

(89,275 posts)

2. it's not Pelosi's mind that needs to be changed. it's the other members

Reply to mindfulNJ (Original post)

Mon Sep 23, 2019, 07:02 PM

Sep 2019

and being sure they have enough votes to pass .

mindfulNJ

(2,367 posts)

4. Hopefully

Reply to JI7 (Reply #2)

Mon Sep 23, 2019, 07:05 PM

Sep 2019

that will change too in the coming days.

Gothmog

(145,619 posts)

7. Pelosi does not have the votes

Reply to JI7 (Reply #2)

Mon Sep 23, 2019, 07:08 PM

Sep 2019

I donated to and help elect two Democrats who flipped red seats to blue in Texas. These two Democrats are being targeted by the GOP. There are also six other house seats that the Texas Democratic Party and the DCCC are targeting. All of these seats may be hurt by impeachment.

There are 40 democrats who are in seats that are vulnerable. Pelosi is not going to do anything to hurt the chances of these Democrats

Link to tweet

Hermit-The-Prog

(33,447 posts)

9. and that's why we need noise ...

Reply to Gothmog (Reply #7)

Mon Sep 23, 2019, 07:14 PM

Sep 2019

WE need to make noise where those constituents can hear us and call those Reps.

Meanwhile, the rest need to stop threatening subpoenas and just do it. Arrest the obstructing bastards if necessary, but continue exposing the lawlessness. It drags on for far too long between tiny events of action.

Phoenix61

(17,019 posts)

5. I think she is waiting for the point where

Reply to mindfulNJ (Original post)

Mon Sep 23, 2019, 07:05 PM

Sep 2019

she can honestly say she is moving forward with impeachment because she has to, not because she wants to. That there is so much popular demand for that action.

Gothmog

(145,619 posts)

6. Analysis: The politics of pushing to impeach Trump aren't much less complicated than they were a wee

Reply to mindfulNJ (Original post)

Mon Sep 23, 2019, 07:07 PM

Sep 2019

Link to tweet

Setting aside the Nixon example, an impeachment push isn’t necessarily going to sail through the House in the first place.

The Washington Post has been tracking which members of the House Democratic caucus support impeaching Trump. Since the beginning of the year, the number who do has increased significantly, picking up speed in earnest after the release of former special counsel Robert S. Mueller III’s report on Russian interference in the 2016 election. (One Republican joined the impeachment calls before leaving his party in July: Justin Amash (I-Mich.).)

Notice that bar on the far right, though. It signifies the number of votes needed to have a majority in the House. And although more than half of Democrats support impeachment publicly, nearly all of the caucus would need to support such a vote if Republicans remain unified in opposition to it. The light blue on that chart indicates Democrats who haven’t weighed in on impeachment or who are opposed to it — but nearly all of those members explicitly oppose an impeachment effort.

Pelosi is good at counting votes and right now the votes are not there to impeach

NCLefty

(3,678 posts)

8. At least we will be able to show that we didn't jump on impeachment on day 1.

Reply to mindfulNJ (Original post)

Mon Sep 23, 2019, 07:11 PM

Sep 2019

To make the case to non-Trumpy Americans that we tried to avoid this mess, I mean.

stopbush

(24,396 posts)

10. The Rs will simply say it was the D plan all along to impeach tRump,

Reply to NCLefty (Reply #8)

Mon Sep 23, 2019, 07:16 PM

Sep 2019

and that they keep making up new reasons for impeachment when the old ones get shot down.

The media will take up this mantra. They are already doing so, down playing the Russiagare crimes as being too hard to understand, and therefore, not impeachable.

Gothmog

(145,619 posts)

11. How we'll know if the impeachment dam starts to break

Reply to mindfulNJ (Original post)

Mon Sep 23, 2019, 07:18 PM

Sep 2019

Right now, Pelosi does not have the votes for impeachment. We will know when the votes are there if the districts described below start to flip. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/09/23/how-well-know-if-impeachment-dam-starts-break/

One category includes districts that were decided by close races in 2018 (in which the margin of victory was within single digits). A second category includes districts that were flipped from GOP control (that is, won by ousting a GOP incumbent). And a third category includes districts that Trump carried in 2016.....

By my count, there are 19 districts that comprise those three categories: Each one was decided within single digits and was swiped from a GOP incumbent in 2018 and was carried by Trump in 2016. I matched these up against this full list of where Democratic lawmakers stand on an impeachment inquiry.

It turns out that in 18 of these 19 districts, the Democratic lawmaker has not come out for an impeachment inquiry. That’s not too surprising, but it underscores just how difficult Democrats in those types of places think the politics of their districts make it for them to support even an inquiry, which, you will recall, is merely the start of the process, not the impeachment vote itself.

Here’s a list of those 18 members: Reps. Abigail Spanberger, Elaine Luria, Ben McAdams, Joe Cunningham, Kendra Horn, Anthony Brindisi, Antonio Delgado, Max Rose, Xochitl Torres Small, Andy Kim, Jeff Van Drew, Angie Craig, Haley Stevens, Elissa Slotkin, Jared Golden, Cindy Axne, Abby Finkenauer and Lucy McBath. The only one in that category to come out for an inquiry is Rep. Underwood.

Gothmog

(145,619 posts)

12. I know two newly elected Democrats who have not come out

Reply to mindfulNJ (Original post)

Mon Sep 23, 2019, 07:22 PM

Sep 2019

I have contributed to the Democrats who flipped two districts in Texas. These Democrats were in district that Clinton carried and these Democrats are being targeted by the RNC. Here is more on this category https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/09/23/how-well-know-if-impeachment-dam-starts-break/

There are also 21 districts that were decided by single digits but aren’t in all three categories. Many of those were also taken from a GOP incumbent but weren’t carried by Trump, probably reflecting the ability of some GOP lawmakers to win in 2016 even in districts carried by Hillary Clinton before losing in 2018, when Trump made things much worse for them.

A bit more than half of those districts are represented by Democrats who still haven’t come out for an impeachment inquiry. They include: Reps. Colin Allred, Lizzie Fletcher, Matthew Cartwright, Steven Horsford, Susie Lee, Collin C. Peterson, Sharice Davids, Donna Shalala, Gil Cisneros, TJ Cox, Josh Harder and Tom O’Halleran.

In addition, in Texas we have six districts that trump carried but which the Texas Democratic Party and the DCCC think can be flipped. Pelosi is not call a vote unless she is sure that this will not hurt the Democrats in the House and those running for flippable seats.

chowder66

(9,083 posts)

13. I don't think so and I like Pelosi. I think she wants hard evidence of wrongdoing that she can

Reply to mindfulNJ (Original post)

Mon Sep 23, 2019, 07:44 PM

Sep 2019

plaster across the media. Until documents, tapes, memos, etc come in she won't say she supports it. Once something comes in that is good enough she will call for it.