General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsCheck out these numbers from Nate Silver's blog...
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/During the last election I read this religiously. His forecasts were right on for the most part. I heard he was off on Indiana in 2008.
As of tonight here are the forecast numbers if the election were held today...
Electoral votes...
Barack Obama
305.5
Mitt Rmoney
232.5
Chance of winning...
Barack Obama
73.1%
Mitt Rmoney
26.9%
Popular vote...
Barack Obama
50.9%
Mitt Rmoney
47.9%
The numbers look good for President Obama and it would be easy to be cocky, but I'm still careful. Inwardly, I still feel like it's easy to lose this whole thing. These numbers are encouraging and give me hope. That's as far as I'm willing to go.
Lex
(34,108 posts)that the Repukes put in place are going to work against President Obama.
cynatnite
(31,011 posts)He said he was always getting questioned about them. I think he felt the numbers wouldn't be high enough to sway Ohio or Florida as a result. I hope he's right, but I'm not hanging my hat on it. The article was very thorough. Nate usually covers all his bases.
Lex
(34,108 posts)his blog. Thanks.
cynatnite
(31,011 posts)WCGreen
(45,558 posts)A U.S. judge in Ohio threw out a Republican-backed law that cut three days of early voting for most of the states citizens, handing a victory to President Barack Obamas campaign organization.
In a third setback for Republican-sponsored election law changes this week, U.S. District Judge Peter Economus in Columbus ruled that Ohio cant give members of the military and citizens living abroad three days more than other voters to cast ballots. He ordered the previous schedule restored that allowed anyone to vote until the day before an election.
This court finds that plaintiffs have a constitutionally protected right to participate in the 2012 election -- and all elections -- on an equal basis with all Ohio voters, Economus said, ruling on a lawsuit brought by Obama for America.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-08-31/ohio-early-voting-days-must-be-equal-for-all-u-dot-s-dot-judge-rules
Looks like these various voting restriction regulations are going tobe over ruled. We shall see if they get to the Scar Gang in DC that has a political instead of judicial approach to measuring a law...
druidity33
(6,446 posts)in Ohio and the Repug SC in Ohio may allow the law to stand. It was a very strong opinion in this instance, so it could go either way. But the current Ohio SC usually has no qualms about supporting shitty laws...
WCGreen
(45,558 posts)druidity33
(6,446 posts)the Ohio AG is appealing and now it goes to the 6th Circuit.
http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2012/08/federal_judge_overturns_law_re.html
details here:
http://news.firedoglake.com/2012/08/31/federal-court-rules-to-open-early-voting-on-weekend-before-election-in-ohio/
and here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/08/31/1126371/-Judge-restores-three-days-of-early-voting-in-Ohio
brewens
(13,610 posts)anyone that gets caught in a lie at our convention is banished from the party. No one gives them any "they did it too" ammunition!
They lied enough to give our side a lot to attack them for. We don't need anyone screwing us.
doc03
(35,359 posts)edit it to suit their agenda.
Jackpine Radical
(45,274 posts)you can't do instant responses when you've been legitimately caught out in a lie.
jimlup
(7,968 posts)in several critical swing states.
They will attempt to steal this one and they may have that capability.
cynatnite
(31,011 posts)It's from a while back and some things have changed so take it for what it's worth.
ProudToBeBlueInRhody
(16,399 posts)Both the Florida and Ohio laws are dead. Pennsylvania holds for now.
bleever
(20,616 posts)What he doesn't touch on (in that piece) is the effect of the other recently used tactics, including changing early voting and suppressing registration. I'd like to hear him put those in some perspective too.
cynatnite
(31,011 posts)xtraxritical
(3,576 posts)bleever
(20,616 posts)proprietary software, central tabulation...
ReasonableToo
(505 posts)Check Ohio in '04. Some precincts with over 1000 registered voters had only enough machines to count less than 500 votes if they ran steadily all day. Long lines and some left after waiting over 4 hours.
Don't get too comfortable predicting electoral votes based on polls.
jillan
(39,451 posts)ProudToBeBlueInRhody
(16,399 posts)If you check out the Princeton Presidential Consortium, they generally see Obama has having closer to a 90% chance of winning the EC.
calimary
(81,389 posts)"CONSTANT VIGILANCE!!!!"
Bernardo de La Paz
(49,027 posts)WENDELL PHILLIPS, speech in Boston, Massachusetts, January 28, 1852.Speeches Before the Massachusetts Anti-Slavery Society, p. 13 (1853).
calimary
(81,389 posts)Another one for my quotes file!
Bernardo de La Paz
(49,027 posts)"Paranoia, is the price of liberty. Vigilance is not enough." -- unknown
renate
(13,776 posts)Also, in addition to what I've read in the MSM that Romney never really says anything about actual solutions to problems, the meme that Ryan is a HUGE LIAR is just getting going. I'm feeling pretty good... not cocky, but better than I did at this point in 2008 when Sarah Palin was still interesting to people who like that kind of thing.
hfojvt
(37,573 posts)What is Obama gonna be able to do with a Republican House?
Other than the spelunking that he does so well?
Not very much.
The House will have several opportunities to force Obama to crawl over broken glass to avoid a government shut down or a default. They did that last time, and apparently will pay exactly ZERO as a political price.
Silver is showing 229 House seats as solid or leaning Republican. And only 184 solid or leaning Democrat. With 22 as toss ups. Republicans only need 219 for a majority.
The Senate does not look much better. 37 continuing Republican, six solid, three leaning, and seven toss up, including Wisconsin and Missouri. Okay, they need 5 of the seven for a majority, so that looks kinda tough, but not impossible. Democrats have 30 continuing, 11 solid, and six leaning. So we need, first, all of the leaning - Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, New Mexico, and Hawaii, and then three of the seven toss ups (along with the White House). Nevada, Montana, Missouri, Wisconsin, Virginia, Maine, Massachusetts.
I don't expect anything from a 2nd Obama term except gnashing of teeth if we don't also win the House and hold the Senate.
jaysunb
(11,856 posts)My greatest fears.
AverageJoe90
(10,745 posts)At the very least, if we do lose the House, we won't have to wait as long for the next election. That's why I believe we also need to focus the majority of our attention on the Senate races.
calimary
(81,389 posts)will not ignore the down-ticket races.
Bernardo de La Paz
(49,027 posts)Lex
(34,108 posts)AverageJoe90
(10,745 posts)We've been kicking a LOT of ass lately. And yet, I still see people getting up and getting the word out any way they can. If we keep this up, it'll be that much harder for the GOP to steal this next election.
librechik
(30,676 posts)He used to irritate me so much, even tho he is quite accurate.
Raine1967
(11,589 posts)We absolutely need to GET THE VOTE OUT.
We cannot be complacent. You can't steal an election that isn't close enough to steal. I love reading stories like this, but I am always concerned about complacency. I love the youth vote, but I count on nothing. We have to work for this election!
Call me a concern troll...