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cynatnite

(31,011 posts)
Sat Sep 1, 2012, 10:18 PM Sep 2012

Check out these numbers from Nate Silver's blog...

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

During the last election I read this religiously. His forecasts were right on for the most part. I heard he was off on Indiana in 2008.

As of tonight here are the forecast numbers if the election were held today...

Electoral votes...

Barack Obama
305.5

Mitt Rmoney
232.5

Chance of winning...

Barack Obama
73.1%

Mitt Rmoney
26.9%

Popular vote...

Barack Obama
50.9%

Mitt Rmoney
47.9%

The numbers look good for President Obama and it would be easy to be cocky, but I'm still careful. Inwardly, I still feel like it's easy to lose this whole thing. These numbers are encouraging and give me hope. That's as far as I'm willing to go.
35 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Check out these numbers from Nate Silver's blog... (Original Post) cynatnite Sep 2012 OP
I am worried about how these new Voter ID rules in the swing states Lex Sep 2012 #1
He talked about them at length in a previous entry of his... cynatnite Sep 2012 #2
I'll go over and check out his other entries at Lex Sep 2012 #5
I found it... cynatnite Sep 2012 #9
The one in Ohio was over turned via a judge finding WCGreen Sep 2012 #21
Unfortunately it will be appealed druidity33 Sep 2012 #33
It's a federal court, from what I understand. WCGreen Sep 2012 #34
You're right... druidity33 Sep 2012 #35
After that Republican lie fest last week, the word from the DNC needs to be, brewens Sep 2012 #3
It won't matter to the Rethigs they will either take something out of context or doc03 Sep 2012 #7
YOu can do instant responses on that kind of thing; Jackpine Radical Sep 2012 #10
My concern remains the voting access restrictions that the Repukes are attempting jimlup Sep 2012 #4
Here's what he said... cynatnite Sep 2012 #8
Things have generally changed for the better too ProudToBeBlueInRhody Sep 2012 #12
Wow, that was well worth reading. Great analysis of the effect of voter ID laws. bleever Sep 2012 #13
I am a huge fan of his blog. n/t cynatnite Sep 2012 #14
Let's not overlook those Diebold voting machines. xtraxritical Sep 2012 #17
A few percent here, a few percent there, bleever Sep 2012 #20
Also need the right number of machines. ReasonableToo Sep 2012 #26
And when he does - he will have a MANDATE - dangit. jillan Sep 2012 #6
He's considered cautious as well ProudToBeBlueInRhody Sep 2012 #11
Just remember what Mad-Eye Moody always told Harry Potter: calimary Sep 2012 #15
Much older: 1852, Boston speech by Wendell Phillips Bernardo de La Paz Sep 2012 #24
Aha! Even Better!!! calimary Sep 2012 #29
not enough ... Bernardo de La Paz Sep 2012 #31
Obama's going to get a bounce from his convention that Romney never could've renate Sep 2012 #16
is the Presidency the only thing that matters? hfojvt Sep 2012 #18
Ring the bell ! Ding Ding Ding !!!!!! jaysunb Sep 2012 #19
That is true. AverageJoe90 Sep 2012 #23
YES. Hopefully the Dems (and other good guys) who come out for Obama calimary Sep 2012 #30
Yes. Need the Senate for Supreme Court nominations. Need House for almost everything else. nt Bernardo de La Paz Sep 2012 #25
THE SUPREME COURT. Lex Sep 2012 #27
We very well could, if we stop now! AverageJoe90 Sep 2012 #22
Nate Silver to me used to be the voice of doom. I like this one. librechik Sep 2012 #28
This is great, BUT: Raine1967 Sep 2012 #32

Lex

(34,108 posts)
1. I am worried about how these new Voter ID rules in the swing states
Sat Sep 1, 2012, 10:19 PM
Sep 2012

that the Repukes put in place are going to work against President Obama.

cynatnite

(31,011 posts)
2. He talked about them at length in a previous entry of his...
Sat Sep 1, 2012, 10:22 PM
Sep 2012

He said he was always getting questioned about them. I think he felt the numbers wouldn't be high enough to sway Ohio or Florida as a result. I hope he's right, but I'm not hanging my hat on it. The article was very thorough. Nate usually covers all his bases.

WCGreen

(45,558 posts)
21. The one in Ohio was over turned via a judge finding
Sun Sep 2, 2012, 04:35 AM
Sep 2012

A U.S. judge in Ohio threw out a Republican-backed law that cut three days of early voting for most of the state’s citizens, handing a victory to President Barack Obama’s campaign organization.

In a third setback for Republican-sponsored election law changes this week, U.S. District Judge Peter Economus in Columbus ruled that Ohio can’t give members of the military and citizens living abroad three days more than other voters to cast ballots. He ordered the previous schedule restored that allowed anyone to vote until the day before an election.

“This court finds that plaintiffs have a constitutionally protected right to participate in the 2012 election -- and all elections -- on an equal basis with all Ohio voters,” Economus said, ruling on a lawsuit brought by Obama for America.


http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-08-31/ohio-early-voting-days-must-be-equal-for-all-u-dot-s-dot-judge-rules

Looks like these various voting restriction regulations are going tobe over ruled. We shall see if they get to the Scar Gang in DC that has a political instead of judicial approach to measuring a law...

druidity33

(6,446 posts)
33. Unfortunately it will be appealed
Sun Sep 2, 2012, 08:32 PM
Sep 2012

in Ohio and the Repug SC in Ohio may allow the law to stand. It was a very strong opinion in this instance, so it could go either way. But the current Ohio SC usually has no qualms about supporting shitty laws...




brewens

(13,610 posts)
3. After that Republican lie fest last week, the word from the DNC needs to be,
Sat Sep 1, 2012, 10:23 PM
Sep 2012

anyone that gets caught in a lie at our convention is banished from the party. No one gives them any "they did it too" ammunition!

They lied enough to give our side a lot to attack them for. We don't need anyone screwing us.

doc03

(35,359 posts)
7. It won't matter to the Rethigs they will either take something out of context or
Sat Sep 1, 2012, 10:30 PM
Sep 2012

edit it to suit their agenda.

Jackpine Radical

(45,274 posts)
10. YOu can do instant responses on that kind of thing;
Sat Sep 1, 2012, 10:36 PM
Sep 2012

you can't do instant responses when you've been legitimately caught out in a lie.

jimlup

(7,968 posts)
4. My concern remains the voting access restrictions that the Repukes are attempting
Sat Sep 1, 2012, 10:26 PM
Sep 2012

in several critical swing states.

They will attempt to steal this one and they may have that capability.

ProudToBeBlueInRhody

(16,399 posts)
12. Things have generally changed for the better too
Sat Sep 1, 2012, 10:44 PM
Sep 2012

Both the Florida and Ohio laws are dead. Pennsylvania holds for now.

bleever

(20,616 posts)
13. Wow, that was well worth reading. Great analysis of the effect of voter ID laws.
Sat Sep 1, 2012, 10:51 PM
Sep 2012

What he doesn't touch on (in that piece) is the effect of the other recently used tactics, including changing early voting and suppressing registration. I'd like to hear him put those in some perspective too.

ReasonableToo

(505 posts)
26. Also need the right number of machines.
Sun Sep 2, 2012, 10:23 AM
Sep 2012

Check Ohio in '04. Some precincts with over 1000 registered voters had only enough machines to count less than 500 votes if they ran steadily all day. Long lines and some left after waiting over 4 hours.

Don't get too comfortable predicting electoral votes based on polls.

ProudToBeBlueInRhody

(16,399 posts)
11. He's considered cautious as well
Sat Sep 1, 2012, 10:42 PM
Sep 2012

If you check out the Princeton Presidential Consortium, they generally see Obama has having closer to a 90% chance of winning the EC.

Bernardo de La Paz

(49,027 posts)
24. Much older: 1852, Boston speech by Wendell Phillips
Sun Sep 2, 2012, 09:46 AM
Sep 2012
"Eternal vigilance is the price of liberty—power is ever stealing from the many to the few…. The hand entrusted with power becomes … the necessary enemy of the people. Only by continual oversight can the democrat in office be prevented from hardening into a despot: only by unintermitted Agitation can a people be kept sufficiently awake to principle not to let liberty be smothered in material prosperity."


WENDELL PHILLIPS, speech in Boston, Massachusetts, January 28, 1852.—Speeches Before the Massachusetts Anti-Slavery Society, p. 13 (1853).

renate

(13,776 posts)
16. Obama's going to get a bounce from his convention that Romney never could've
Sun Sep 2, 2012, 01:19 AM
Sep 2012

Also, in addition to what I've read in the MSM that Romney never really says anything about actual solutions to problems, the meme that Ryan is a HUGE LIAR is just getting going. I'm feeling pretty good... not cocky, but better than I did at this point in 2008 when Sarah Palin was still interesting to people who like that kind of thing.

hfojvt

(37,573 posts)
18. is the Presidency the only thing that matters?
Sun Sep 2, 2012, 01:47 AM
Sep 2012

What is Obama gonna be able to do with a Republican House?

Other than the spelunking that he does so well?

Not very much.

The House will have several opportunities to force Obama to crawl over broken glass to avoid a government shut down or a default. They did that last time, and apparently will pay exactly ZERO as a political price.

Silver is showing 229 House seats as solid or leaning Republican. And only 184 solid or leaning Democrat. With 22 as toss ups. Republicans only need 219 for a majority.

The Senate does not look much better. 37 continuing Republican, six solid, three leaning, and seven toss up, including Wisconsin and Missouri. Okay, they need 5 of the seven for a majority, so that looks kinda tough, but not impossible. Democrats have 30 continuing, 11 solid, and six leaning. So we need, first, all of the leaning - Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, New Mexico, and Hawaii, and then three of the seven toss ups (along with the White House). Nevada, Montana, Missouri, Wisconsin, Virginia, Maine, Massachusetts.

I don't expect anything from a 2nd Obama term except gnashing of teeth if we don't also win the House and hold the Senate.

 

AverageJoe90

(10,745 posts)
23. That is true.
Sun Sep 2, 2012, 05:09 AM
Sep 2012

At the very least, if we do lose the House, we won't have to wait as long for the next election. That's why I believe we also need to focus the majority of our attention on the Senate races.

calimary

(81,389 posts)
30. YES. Hopefully the Dems (and other good guys) who come out for Obama
Sun Sep 2, 2012, 08:00 PM
Sep 2012

will not ignore the down-ticket races.

 

AverageJoe90

(10,745 posts)
22. We very well could, if we stop now!
Sun Sep 2, 2012, 05:03 AM
Sep 2012

We've been kicking a LOT of ass lately. And yet, I still see people getting up and getting the word out any way they can. If we keep this up, it'll be that much harder for the GOP to steal this next election.

librechik

(30,676 posts)
28. Nate Silver to me used to be the voice of doom. I like this one.
Sun Sep 2, 2012, 12:00 PM
Sep 2012

He used to irritate me so much, even tho he is quite accurate.

Raine1967

(11,589 posts)
32. This is great, BUT:
Sun Sep 2, 2012, 08:19 PM
Sep 2012

We absolutely need to GET THE VOTE OUT.

We cannot be complacent. You can't steal an election that isn't close enough to steal. I love reading stories like this, but I am always concerned about complacency. I love the youth vote, but I count on nothing. We have to work for this election!

Call me a concern troll...

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