Nate Silver....

Link to tweet

Who knows. Could it be going even better for Dems if Pelosi had called for impeachment over Russia a few months ago and *then* the Ukraine stuff landed? Maybe. I tend to think that would have dulled the impact of Ukraine. But who knows. It's hard to prove anything.
What we do know is that the first 2 weeks have gone well for Dems on almost every front: D party unity is high, public opinion has swing in their favor, Trump's defenses are feeble and (most importantly) the fact pattern has been very unfavorable for the White House.