This is some terrible political analysis

Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-large
Updated 2:15 PM ET, Fri October 4, 2019

... "And I do believe that because of what they're doing with (Nancy) Pelosi and -- and their real leaders, AOC plus three. That's their real leaders -- I believe they are paying a tremendous price at the polls. We saw the first glimpse of it two weeks ago in a great state, North Carolina. We saw a great, great glimpse of what's going to happen. Because in North Carolina we had two races. One gentleman, Dan Bishop was down by 17 points with three weeks to go and he won easily.

"And the other man, as you know, Greg Murphy was up by a very little bit and won by a massive amount. 20% or something, maybe higher. So I think you got your first glimpse of what's going to happen. The big key is I have to campaign there. But if you look at what happened in North Carolina, two races we won both and won them easily. And one was almost tied. And the other one was a big, big lead. And that one turned and the tie became a landslide."

... The 3rd District, which Republican Greg Murphy won, went for Trump by 23 points in 2016. The 9th District, where Republican Dan Bishop won, went for Trump by 12. So neither of these districts are considered by any smart political handicapper as toss-ups or anything close. In fact, there are 34 seats currently held by Republican incumbents where Trump won by less in 2016 than he did in North Carolina's 9th.

The story in these North Carolina special elections wasn't that Republicans won them. Instead, it was the narrowness of Bishop's victory that was notable, given that the district has been in Republican hands for decades ...

https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/04/politics/north-carolina-special-election-trump/index.html