To increase odds of conviction and removal, work on these Republican Senators .. starting NOW.

Democrats, Independents, and even fed up Republicans should gently get to work on three classes of Republican Senators when it comes to convicting Trump in his Senate Trial.

(a) those who are retiring from politics and aren't willing to have their last act in office be a profile in cowering cowardice. I think there are 4 retiring Republican Senators: Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, Pat Roberts of Kansas, Johnny Isakson of Georgia (though he is retiring as of Dec 31 so might not be around to vote on conviction, depending on how fast this moves). and Mike Enzi of Wyoming. Alexander seems like the most likely to be swayed by such considerations.

(b) Those in highly contested seats who are up for reelection in 2020. I think there are least three of those. Martha McSally of Arizona (who actually lost to a democrat in 2018). Cory Gardner of Colorado, and Susan Collins of Maine.

(c) those who fancy themselves politicians of principle (and loathe what the Orange one has done to their party). Mitt Romney is the clearest example. Ben Sasse of Nebraska likes to pretend to be one, at least some of the time, though when push comes to shove he tends to tuck his principles away for safe keeping. Lisa Murkowski also comes to mind.

Even if the Democrats cannot get the 2/3 vote in the Senate needed to convict and remove the Orange One from office, a majority, and possible a largish one, does seem within reach. Getting a significant majority in favor of removal would, I think, still be a significant step. It would help to place a permanent and deserved stain on the Trump Presidency. It would also probably increase the likelihood of the GOP going down to a major defeat in 2020.

Just to show that this is possible, here is a sampling of what the retiring four, for example, have said so far.


Roberts:

Sen. Pat Roberts, R-Kansas, said Wednesday he would have preferred that Trump had not made the call. But he also complained that the House leadership’s decision to pursue impeachment would prevent Congress from passing trade deals and other important business.

“We went through all that with the Clinton impeachment effort and the end result after impassioned speeches and a lot of press reporting… every Republican voted yes and every Democrat voted no,” said Roberts, who voted to remove President Bill Clinton from office in 19

Read more here: https://www.kansascity.com/news/local/news-columns-blogs/the-buzz/article235485997.html#storylink=cpy

Enzi:

Enzi — the only member of Wyoming’s delegation to have participated in the process of impeachment — did not offer comment on his vote or on Pelosi’s announcement, saying through a spokesperson that “if there’s ever another impeachment, he will do what he did before — he will be a jurist, listen to the evidence, and once all the evidence is in, he will make a final decision.”

Alexander:

Tennessee Sen. Lamar Alexander said he has not read the complaint. “I’m waiting for the intelligence committee to finish its work."

Isakson: He hasn't said anything about impeachment, but with respect to "mass violence" legislation, he wants to take a parting shot at getting something done and he said this: “Americans are right to demand action from their elected leaders, and I’m tired of seeing Congress respond with partisan politics instead of real solutions,” Isakson said last week.

I think this shows that AT LEAST some Republicans are not yet circling the wagons. It's our job to make sure they don't and that they feel some gentle pressure to stand on principle. We will need different tactics for Senators in different situations obviously. For those in tight races, it's a matter of pure vote counting. For those retiring, it's a matter of freeing them to do what they really believe ought to be done. For those who purport to be office holders of principle, it's about flattery, lionizing them as true profiles in courage. That sort of thing.