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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsReid Warns Trump Will Be Tough to Beat In 2020
Reid Warns Trump Will Be Tough to Beat In 2020
October 12, 2019 at 11:08 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 390 Comments
https://politicalwire.com/2019/10/12/reid-warns-trump-will-be-tough-to-beat-in-2020/
"SNIP.....
Former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid told CNN that President Trump is a very, very smart man who wont be easy for Democrats to defeat in the 2020 election.
Said Reid: I dont think hes, intellectually, a powerhouse but he is basically a very, very smart man. No matter what the subject, any argument he involves himself in, its on his terms. Youre always arguing against him. He never, never, is willing to debate an issue on terms that arent his.
He added: Anyone that thinks Trumps going to be beaten easily should have another thing coming.
......SNIP"
spanone
(135,844 posts)applegrove
(118,696 posts)Point is we need a debater who is outstanding on the top of our ticket.
elleng
(130,974 posts)someone who goes right to the heart of issues LOUD and CLEAR, and gets IMMEDIATE attention.
Who among our candidates???
Me.
(35,454 posts)and he'll have/has much blood on his hands...as for sadistic think back to his filling a moat filled with crocs, bullets in the legs, electric fences and stealing children from parents. Not to mention his meh attitude to the killing of Khashoggi and taking the food out of the mouths of children and denying them medical care. And that's for starters.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)...that we're dealing with bad people. Not just people with a different take on the proper role of the federal government or tax rates. But bad fucking people.
Me.
(35,454 posts)I'd go so far as to use a word I seldom do...evil.
applegrove
(118,696 posts)Like the american people and healthcare. Touche.
Arazi
(6,829 posts)#Traitor is doing his masters bidding.
Betray the Kurds? Create doubt amongst all US allies. Check!
Tear NATO apart over Turkish atrocities? Check!
Ensure ISIS fighters are released since the Kurds cant maintain their security AND fight for their lives? Check! Global mayhem on Western societies unleashed!
The sadism is just a side benefit
redstateblues
(10,565 posts)Cha
(297,323 posts)peggysue2
(10,832 posts)If Trump makes it to the General Election, isn't thrown out first or replaced with another nominee, the election is guaranteed to be brutal, ugly and damaging to the entire system. I don't think Trump is smart but he has a street-smart cunning, the sort of quality thugs and professional criminals exude. And he knows, the way we know, that once he's out of office his legal jeopardy increases 100 fold. He and his enablers will throw everything and everyone to the wall.
The ugly is coming!
pangaia
(24,324 posts)putin's goal...
dalton99a
(81,516 posts)with a strong instinct for survival
smirkymonkey
(63,221 posts)who has the animal cunning of a NYC sewer rat. He knows how to get what he wants and he knows how to survive. That is all he knows. He is manipulative and calculating, but he is not intelligent.
He is also immoral and without a conscience. That makes it easy for him. Those things get in the way for better people when trying to advance their agendas, but not for him. He is a soulless, greedy POS who will do absolutely anything to get his needs met. This doesn't make him smart, it only means he is ruthless and single-minded when pursuing a goal.
SCVDem
(5,103 posts)I will be sad that this is how America ends.
All the fallen soldiers, sailors, airmen and Marines. They really did die for nothing.
This shouldn't even be close!
BlueStater
(7,596 posts)He's actually a goddamn imbecile.
His biggest strength is that he's a vicious sociopath with zero conscience who's willing to stoop to any low if it means getting what he wants. That's what makes him so dangerous, not his brainpower.
tman
(983 posts)this forum has been rife with delusions that "Trump is finished" for the last few weeks.
That tells me that many don't realize what's coming in 2020.
He's is correct on Trump fighting on his terms. Trump is currently defining his opponents by projecting all of his weaknesses onto them through a very effective advertising campaign with NO pushback from liberal groups.
Some former Obama advisers have been ringing the alarm bells for some time.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Let's face it, the main and well-deserved criticism of the Democratic Party (going back a very long time) is that we suck at messaging, at controlling the narrative.
This is a post I made recently:
Lets consider all of the crap being flung at the public in hopes that some of it will stick in the minds of just enough people to discombobulate the masses:
If its out in the open, it cant be a crime.
Its not political; its about fighting corruption.
Bidens the corrupt one, and Ukraine colluded with the Clinton campaignit wasnt Russia colluding with my campaign.
Theres nothing wrong with having private conversations with foreign leaders. (Except for that pesky Presidential Records Act.)
So-and-so told me to do it.
It was just a joke.
And so on.
As silly and just plain false as those arguments are, Democrats do need to be vigilant about controlling the narrative by pointing out how wrong the arguments are *and* I would argue by pointing out what tactic is being employed. Because as obvious as it is to some of us, I guarantee many people arent going to recognize that Trump and his minions are attempting to convince people that their transparency (never mind that the whistleblower forced their hand) equates to innocence. Im not hiding this, so it cant be wrong. If you help people recognize the tactic thats being employed to fool them, Id like to think theyre less likely to be fooled.
For the last three years, Ive wished the DNC would hire a spokesperson such as John Fugelsang to hold a weekly or even daily press conference for the sole purpose of addressing Trump/Republican lies and obfuscation. Most people arent political junkies and need help understanding not just the what but also the *why* behind various lies and misleading statements. Given how many lies Trump tells on a daily basis, a dogged persistence on the part of Democrats would be required, so why not hire a charismatic spokesperson whose only job is to smack down the propaganda. If Dems continually point out that such and such tactic is being employed, itll eventually register in the public consciousness. Repeat, repeat, repeat. Thats how Republicans made liberal media a household term, which has had devastating effects on the public consciousness and the media itself. It seems some in the media are finally exhausted enough by the onslaught of lies that they are calling out the liars instead of simply letting the lies pass as if the liar is merely expressing a valid opinion (but chances are the media, as a whole, will fail us again in 2020 just as it did in 2016). Its one thing to have two guests on who are expressing opposing opinions about the proper role of the federal government. Its another thing to just let a guest insist over and over again that two plus two equals seventeen, or that climate change is a hoax. But I digress
here are some examples of how a Democrat (at a press conference or on a talk show) might go about explaining (in simple terms) what tactic is being employed like a weapon against the public:
1) Trump wants you to believe that crimes committed out in the open cant possibly be crimes. Hes wrong. Crimes out in the open are still crimes. He is committing impeachable offenses and hoping youll fall for his tactic. Dont.
2) Republicans have for many decades employed the strategy of accusing Democrats of the very thing they are doing (such as Trump saying its Pelosi and Schiff who are committing high crimes and misdemeanors), so as to muddy the water and inspire false equivalencies (something the media loves to promote, because media personalities seem to think it will help them appear unbiased). The American people need to recognize this tactic for what it is and not fall for it.
3) Republicans (e.g., Kellyanne Conway) are employing the Gish gallop, which is defined as a technique used during debating that focuses on overwhelming an opponent with as many arguments as possible, without regard for accuracy or strength of the arguments. In other words, theyre trying to drown their opponents in so much BS that one doesnt even know where to begin in responding. Well, were not going to play that game. When they are ready to join the rest of us in the land of fact-based reality, then and only then can we have an honest discussion. In the meantime, dont fall for their tactic.
These tactics will continue to work unless Democrats repeatedly shine a light on the tactics themselves.
When Trump said on live TV that China should investigate Biden, Dem leadership should have immediately held a press conference to spell out exactly what Trump was doing, which is twofold. First and foremost, hes committing an impeachable offense. Secondly, hes trying to fool the public into believing that crimes committed openly cant possibly be crimes. Dear American people, dont be fooledtransparent illegality is still illegality. And remind the American people that there is still much that *is* being hidden, including transcripts of calls that have no business being stored on a server meant for highly classified records. And remind the American people that making threats to whistleblowers is witness intimidation and a crime. Never underestimate the ignorance of the American people; they need constant reminders.
dalton99a
(81,516 posts)elleng
(130,974 posts)Garrett78
(10,721 posts)I also emailed my Representative, Jared Huffman, and never heard back.
I know they get sent all sorts of input and I never expected to hear back, but I do think it's something the DNC should have done as soon as Trump took office. When someone who lies constantly (and I mean *constantly*) has the bully pulpit, it's a very, very dangerous thing.
Comedians and MSNBC personalities aren't enough. A daily press conference is needed. "Today's Trump Tales included X, Y and Z. I will quickly deconstruct both the what and the why behind each of those lies. Let's begin..." Something to that effect.
elleng
(130,974 posts)and it appears 'simply' disregarded his teaching.
Column: Linguist George Lakoff on what Democrats dont understand and Republicans do about how voters think
https://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-ol-patt-morrison-george-lakoff-20181128-htmlstory.html
sprinkleeninow
(20,252 posts)Pepsidog
(6,254 posts)regardless of the truth. But Trump is not smart. Anyone can get up and bloviate, criticize, and riff saying whatever comes to mind especially when speaking to an equally ignorant crowd who is receptive to his idiot ideas. Trump is all instinct. Should Fox abandon him he is done. By the way public enemy #1 Murdoch Family !!
uponit7771
(90,347 posts)... at this point or not paying attention.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Voter suppression, foreign interference and a pathetic profit-driven media (which has shown a bit of progress) are the biggest hurdles we face.
Because, even with the electoral college, there's no way that someone with a "strongly approve" number in the 20s and a "strongly disapprove" number that's almost twice as high should have any chance at re-election. Not without a hell of a lot of corruption.
CatMor
(6,212 posts)Trump is a con man and you don't have to be smart to be one, just be a liar with no conscience. He plays the age old game of that may be me in the photo with those crooks but I don't know them and he keeps it up. I find him to be incredibly stupid and one thing I know is con men usually get caught in he end.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Republicans know enough to repeat, repeat, repeat. Project, project, project. Repeat, repeat, repeat. Project, project, project.
That doesn't require a great deal of smarts.
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)I remember a story that I read about him many years ago. It was during one of his many bankruptcies. He needed to get to a meeting with bankers that was uptown from where he was. Before the meeting was to take place, a massive snowstorm struck NYC and made driving next to impossible. The bankers called Trump as asked if he planned to attend the meeting to get loans, he told them the meeting was still on and walked to where they were in the snow. The account was from one of the bankers, so I assume that it is likely true. If it is true, we are making a big mistake if we underestimate what Trump is willing to do and will do to get what he wants.
In his mind he needs to win in 2020 and even try to change the two terms Amendment to keep his ass out of prison (barring a pardon). He will burn down the house if need be to protect himself from justice.
Cyrano
(15,041 posts)2000 -- The Supreme Court appointed George W. Bush.
2004 -- Ohio lost tens of thousands Dem votes which made George W. Bush "prez." Again.
2016 -- Many states blocked black voters. Many states "lost" votes. And then there was Russia.
In a straight, fair vote, Trump would lose by many, many millions.
In today's world, we could end up with King Donald. -- Forever
dustyscamp
(2,224 posts)In 2016 we didn't think he had a chance to be the Gop nominee. When he became the nominee we still didn't believe he would beat Hillary and get all the support he got. We lost because of a number of factors that worked against us. Several decades of disinformation against Hillary/Dems, election interference by hackers, repug hatred of us was at an all time high, voting apathy, Jill Stein & repug Gerrymandering.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)...is probably not going to be as much of a factor this time around. I suspect a lot of people stayed home, voted 3rd party or voted Trump simply because they "knew" Trump couldn't win.
Also, we won't be nominating someone who has been the target of vicious attacks for a quarter of a century.
That said, voter suppression and other forms of election fraud (including foreign interference), a profit-driven media, gerrymandering and a general ignorance will remain significant factors.
TheCowsCameHome
(40,168 posts)and lord knows he's surrounded by legions of them.
New Breed Leader
(624 posts)it ain't because he's smart.
GoCubsGo
(32,086 posts)TWICE. And, that's only on in numerous pieces of evidence that indicate that he is a fucking moron. One can only hope that Reid is saying such things to try to scare Dems into getting of their asses and voting next November.
beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)Pennsylvania, Michigan, even Wisconsin, Florida and Ohio all come into play.
the disgruntle "independent" aint falling for trump the 2nd time but we have to work our asses off either way
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)...others do not. Hillary Hate and overconfidence in Trump's loss (which undoubtedly contributed to greater 3rd party voting and lower turnout) aren't likely to be factors in 2020. The Democratic candidate had won both PA and MI in every presidential election since '92, and WI in every presidential election since '88. Way too much as been made of needing a certain candidate in order to win back those states. Based on the narrative that said we lost due to economic anxiety (apparently POC don't experience economic anxiety) and because of Obama-Trump voters (presumably "independents" that we supposedly must win back. When, in reality, we lost because hundreds of thousands of Obama voters across key battleground states simply didn't vote in 2016 (and because 3rd party voting was higher than usual). And because of even greater voter suppression efforts than we'd seen before. And because of foreign interference. And because of the media.
Foreign interference, voter suppression and a pathetic profit-driven media remain as hurdles.
In a less corrupt and sane world, someone with a "strongly approve" number in the upper 20s and a "strongly disapprove" number that's almost twice as high wouldn't stand a chance at re-election. Even with the electoral college, nobody with numbers like that should have a snowball's chance in hell.
Gidney N Cloyd
(19,841 posts)Doodley
(9,095 posts)Trump is winning the propaganda war, even in the face of impeachment.
Downtown Hound
(12,618 posts)And Trump is losing to Biden and Warren by double digits in many polls. How do you figure Trump is winning the propaganda war?
Doodley
(9,095 posts)much holding steady. Then, on a whole range of issues, he gets credit where it is not deserved. On the economy, he gets credit, when the actual facts tell a different story. Every day he lies. Millions believe him, and there is little effort to inform the public of the truth.
When a pussy-grabbing, bigoted and corrupt piece of shit who has moved this nation backwards is still polling two or three percent approval within his election result, we should wake up to the fact that he is winning the messaging war.
bdamomma
(63,877 posts)He's someone who BS'ing everyone esp. his minority base. Anyone with a brain for facts and the truth knows he's nothing but a liar
He's trying to save his own ass, so he will keep on lying and sowing hate and division pitting Americans against Americans, this may blow up in his face.
Or he will meet his own disastrous fate.
Downtown Hound
(12,618 posts)There's a little variation here and there up and down, but overall, it's pretty stable. Not nearly enough in there to make any kind of claim that he's winning the information war.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)And the steadiness of Trump's approval rating is unprecedented. When you look at the graphs at 538 showing how he compares to his predecessors, his approval rating is basically a straight line. His supporters are known as Cult 45 for a reason.
I also agree that Democrats, as usual, could do a better job of messaging. See post #12 in this thread.
All that said, somebody with a "strongly approve" number in the upper 20s and a "strongly disapprove" number that's almost twice as high shouldn't have any chance at winning, even with the electoral college in place. But there will likely be even greater shenanigans (voter suppression in the form of reducing polling sites, foreign interference, etc.) than we saw in 2016. Trump is desperate to remain in office. It would be much better to get him out of office now.
What works in our favor is the fact that the newness of Trump has worn off (at least some of the casual "let's give him a shot/he can't possibly win anyway" voters learned their lesson, I'm sure), and we won't be nominating a polarizing figure who was the target of vicious attacks for a quarter of a century--hundreds of thousands of Obama voters across key battleground states simply didn't vote in 2016 (either due to Hillary Hate or overconfidence, or a combination of both). And 3rd party voting was greater than normal in 2016 (if that holds true in 2020, hopefully it will only be because someone such as Kasich is running a mildly successful 3rd party campaign).
ritapria
(1,812 posts)50% of the voters will definitely not vote for Trump . 45% of the country will definitely vote for him - if the economy stays out of recession... Projected Popular Vote : Democratic Nominee 50% Trump 47% Libertarian 2 % Green/ Others 1%
AJT
(5,240 posts)Turin_C3PO
(14,004 posts)show up at the polls well beat him in a walk. But turnout is key. Hopefully there wont be a 3rd party spoiler this time.
AJT
(5,240 posts)The Republicans know that it's the electoral college that matters.
JDC
(10,129 posts)maybe. a very smart man?, no Fucking way.
Downtown Hound
(12,618 posts)And we should not get overconfident or complacent.
That being said, I think Trump is going to get walloped in 2020. I think the best he can hope for is about 45% of the popular vote, and I actually think it's actually going to be more like 42% to 43%. About 2% will go to third party idiots, and the rest will go to the Dem.
The Dems will retake the blue firewall in the Midwest and have a very good chance at adding Arizona, North Carolina, and Ohio into the mix. I'm less confident about Florida just because the state is so corrupt, but it's not impossible.
And hopefully, Trump will get a nice, long stay in a taxpayer funded hotel for the rest of his miserable life soon afterwards.
Turin_C3PO
(14,004 posts)The stars would have to align right, but it is a possibility.
Downtown Hound
(12,618 posts)I think we have a real shot there. But even if we lose this time, I think Texas will turn blue within the next decade. And the GOP can kiss winning the presidency ever again goodbye when it does.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Missouri used to be the bellwether of all bellwethers and now it's stark red. Ohio has become quite red, as well. It's possible that other blue or purple states could become reliably red.
But the Republican Party will likely, at some point, be forced to change.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)If Texas goes blue, it'll be interesting to see what the Republican Party does in terms of its message. Will they tone down the insanity, or will they be able to get enough formerly purple states to become solidly red (as we've seen with Missouri and Ohio)?
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)I'd say we have a better chance at Florida than Arizona and North Carolina, as well.
I doubt we'll win Ohio, unless Kasich runs as a 3rd party candidate.
But I expect us to win back PA, MI and WI. We had won PA and MI in 6 straight elections and WI in 7 straight elections prior to 2016--and there were factors at play in 2016 that won't be at play in 2020. That said, election fraud (voter suppression, foreign interference, etc.) will still be a significant factor. And the media, as a whole, doesn't do us any favors.
FL, NC, AZ and even GA should all (in that order) be in play. TX isn't there yet, I don't think.
brettdale
(12,382 posts)Its going to be ugly, its going to be awful, and if he wins, (well i hate to think, what it will be like.)
MFM008
(19,818 posts)By then maggots criminality will have consumed him.
Captain Stern
(2,201 posts)I don't think trump is 'smart'. He's just not. Nor is he knowledgeable. He also lacks any interest at all in learning anything. There's a decent chance that he's going insane too. But, he's still damned dangerous.
But he does have some capabilities, or instincts, or whatever, that make him more successful than most reasonable people know he should be. That's why he's been in the news for about forty years, despite his numerous failures. That's why so many people actually believe that he's a successful businessman. That's why he is occupying the White House right now.
We can argue until the cows come home about how he beat, or didn't really beat, Hillary Clinton (one of the most technically qualified candidates from either party that has ever run for the Presidency) in 2016. But he's in the White House, and she's not.
But, he didn't just beat Clinton to get there.
He also beat Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Rick Perry, Lindsey Graham, Bobby Jindal, Ted Cruz, Chris Christi, Rick Santorum, and other GOP 'stars'. I can practically guarantee that most of the GOP would rather have had any of the above folks as their candidate, other than trump.......yet, they all lost to the orange clown. And some of them didn't just lose to him....they got humiliated by him, and still ended up licking his ass like a fat kid licks an ice cream cone.
trump's dangerous. When it comes to his chances of reelection, he's not a joke, even though he absolutely should be.
bluestarone
(16,976 posts)I think ANYBODY can do what trump is doing because He's backed by putin, barr, Moscow Mitch, ALL the rethugs in the senate, All the religious groups, so on, and so on. NO-ONE to stop him but the DEMS. and we WILL in 2020!
kpete
(71,997 posts)LeftInTX
(25,383 posts)Trump may not be book smart, but books don't win elections
Republicans are good at propaganda. Trump loves all the negative press because he knows there is no such thing as bad publicity. It's almost like, "I'm gonna act like an ass and they will love it".
bdamomma
(63,877 posts)crazy as a fox.
treestar
(82,383 posts)Only because the media thinks they make more money that way.
uponit7771
(90,347 posts)... any win of Trump should be certified.
Red Don gave up running again after he got caught Red Handed soliciting collusion
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)...but actual vote flipping is also a real possibility with a Republican Party desperate to overcome having a minority of support.
I'd feel much, much better if we could get rid of Trump before the election. But Republicans know that turning on Trump will mean electoral disaster in the short-term (even with the electoral college, voter suppression, gerrymandering, etc.). They could dump Trump and be satisfied playing the long game (Trump is a useful tool, but they don't need him in order to push fascism), but I think it'll take some epic smoking guns in order for them to resort to sacrificing 2020.
uponit7771
(90,347 posts)... doing.
marlakay
(11,476 posts)I think the electoral system will be. We have more jobs in the blue states so we attract more of the population and that tilts it all in their favor.
jgmiller
(395 posts)Al Sharpton (who I disagree with more than I agree) made the perfect observation and I think it's what Reid is trying to say. He paraphrased the old line from The Untouchables, saying that Trump brings a broken bottle and a knife to what Democrats think is a boxing match. He's 100% right, I'm afraid everyone thinks that he is somehow playing by the rules or even one rule. To him the only rule is to win and he will do it anyway possible. He even says this yet people don't seem to listen to him.
He's the coward and weakling that when he gets sent to prison walks up to the biggest, badest guy and shivs him to scare all the other prisoners.
The way to defeat Trump is to stand up to him on his own terms, does it look preisdential? No not at all but it will work. He needs to be mocked, laughed at, taunted etc. His only reaction ever is to hit back so he will hit back but it will be so over the top and insane that he will defeat himself. It will also knaw at him, he's a bully and he wants people to be afraid of him and not know what is coming next. If he doesn't know what's coming next that will make him weak.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)I'm not disagreeing that our candidate should stand up to Trump and get under his skin, but I don't think winning in 2020 is all that dependent on how our candidate treats Trump.
We need to focus on boosting turnout among the base--most notably POC, youth and white suburban women--in order to overcome the corruption. The fact is hundreds of thousands of Obama voters across key battleground states simply didn't vote in 2016 (it's not that they voted for Trump; it's that they didn't vote at all), and 3rd party voting was greater than normal.
And we need to be vigilant about minimizing the shenanigans, such as doing away with polling sites in urban areas.
The problems in 2016 were numerous, and some of those problems (foreign interference, voter suppression, a profit-driven media) remain, while others (Hillary Hate, overconfidence, Comey) aren't likely to be factors in 2020. Trump is a known quantity now--the newness has worn off and I'm sure at least some of the "let's give him a chance/he won't win anyway" people have learned their lesson or become disillusioned. Still, even though I'm hopeful, I would much rather get rid of Trump before the election.