Thread: Manhattan DA (Cy Vance) may get Trump's tax returns soon.

Vance issued a grand jury subpoena to get Trump’s tax returns. Trump lost the court case to block the subpoena, but won a temporary stay of the subpoena while he appeals. That stay could be lifted by Tuesday.

First, note that Cy Vance is the Manhattan DA. He works for the State of NY, not for the federal government. This is a NY State criminal case against Trump, his family, and his businesses, related to alleged violations of NY State criminal laws.

The legal battle over the subpoena is being fought in federal court because Trump is claiming the US Constitution shields him from any investigation of alleged state law crimes. Because that’s a question of federal law, it gets decided in federal court rather than state court.

Trump lost his case to block the subpoena in the US District Court and appealed to the 2nd Circuit Court of Appeals (one level below SCOTUS). Oral argument on that appeal is scheduled for Wednesday (10/23), and the subpoena has been stayed until after that oral argument.

Last week, Trump asked the 2nd Circuit to extend the stay so it doesn’t end on Wednesday. The court has not ruled on that motion so Trump panicked on Friday and made another filing saying he will make an emergency appeal to SCOTUS on Tuesday if the court doesn’t rule by then.

Trump is panicking about this because it seems highly unlikely the 2nd Circuit will extend the stay. Courts typically only issue stays to prevent irreparable harm and Trump will *not* suffer irreparable harm if this subpoena is allowed to proceed.

Let’s assume Trump’s ridiculous argument that he’s immune from investigation is correct (even though it’s not). What harm would Trump suffer if the grand jury gets to see the tax returns next week? So long as Trump isn’t indicted, there’s no harm to him that can’t be undone.

The way this would normally work is the subpoena would be served and the parties would fight it out in court. A stay only gets issued if there will be harm that can’t be undone. That’s not the case here so a stay is inappropriate. And Trump knows it, so he’s panicking.

This issue is going to come to a head on Tuesday. If the 2nd Circuit doesn’t rule on Trump’s motion to extend the stay by Tuesday, Trump will consider that a denial and file an emergency appeal to SCOTUS. That’s unlikely to work because there’s clearly no emergency here.

In other horrible news for Trump, the three-judge panel randomly assigned to hear his appeal consists of two Obama appointees and a Clinton appointee, none of whom take the expansive view of Executive Branch power that would support Trump’s claimed immunity from investigation.

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