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GetRidOfThem

(869 posts)
Sat Dec 7, 2019, 08:00 AM Dec 2019

I wonder about that great job boom everybody is talking about...

In the case you missed it, we are supposedly going a through a jobs boom, unemployment is at 3.5%, and it is all an achievement that Agent Orange wants to capitalize on.

I wonder if those numbers are doctored. I would not put it past time to lean on the statistitians/economists, offering them loss of a job unless they paint a rosy picture...

Am I too paranoid?

24 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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I wonder about that great job boom everybody is talking about... (Original Post) GetRidOfThem Dec 2019 OP
No True Blue American Dec 2019 #1
+1000 Sherman A1 Dec 2019 #2
it is the economists' prediction I am worried about... GetRidOfThem Dec 2019 #7
How many of those jobs Ohiogal Dec 2019 #3
They don't! True Blue American Dec 2019 #15
I wonder too Sanity Claws Dec 2019 #4
It all depends what field one is in madville Dec 2019 #6
Those are the jobs that True Blue American Dec 2019 #16
There is this, too.... if the economy slows down, there will be less demand for the trades. nt albacore Dec 2019 #19
Depends True Blue American Dec 2019 #22
Simple explanation from the UK that makes sense here too.... KY_EnviroGuy Dec 2019 #5
Certainly don't trust job numbers uttered directly by trump, but I think BLS reports are reasonably Hoyt Dec 2019 #8
Thank you for pointing out to me... GetRidOfThem Dec 2019 #9
Wage increases have exceeded inflation, that's a good thing although nothing to get excited about. Hoyt Dec 2019 #10
Uhm, starting pay hasn't increased for many jobs in over a decade... Humanist_Activist Dec 2019 #14
The link says "real" wages have barely budged. If it's the same type job, not sure Hoyt Dec 2019 #17
Walmart True Blue American Dec 2019 #20
You are not paranoid enough. The fact that the MSM uses it mechanically, and reflexively, to rebut Anon-C Dec 2019 #11
Trump doesnt deserve credit for the good economy. Joe941 Dec 2019 #12
100% True Blue American Dec 2019 #23
As far as I'm aware of, unemployment numbers only count those collecting unemployment and looking... Humanist_Activist Dec 2019 #13
People are acting like this jobs report will matter Johnny2X2X Dec 2019 #18
About that "booming economy"..... albacore Dec 2019 #21
The revised the last numbers significantly. I remember Bush time we would get one set of #s Lexee Dec 2019 #24

True Blue American

(17,984 posts)
1. No
Sat Dec 7, 2019, 08:12 AM
Dec 2019

This months figures will be higher because all the stores like Dollar Tree are desperate for help. I was in one yesterday, boxed stock piled sky high. One told me they are desperate because no one wants to work.

But come January it will be much different. Economists are predicting a recession but no one knows how deep. However the economy always sinks in an election year. Never fails.

GetRidOfThem

(869 posts)
7. it is the economists' prediction I am worried about...
Sat Dec 7, 2019, 09:04 AM
Dec 2019

Being an economist myself, but dealing with different issues.

What if a recession materializes, but the numbers sre fudged, and everything looks rosy?

Sanity Claws

(21,848 posts)
4. I wonder too
Sat Dec 7, 2019, 08:37 AM
Dec 2019

We just posted a position and we are stunned at the resumes we are receiving. The title indicates a junior position but we are getting applicants with years of solid experience. Many have Master's degrees or are still in graduate programs.
I also found out that someone we hired last year to fill in at reception and do admin work had started law school before taking our job.
There are a lot of very qualified people who are unemployed and underemployed.

madville

(7,410 posts)
6. It all depends what field one is in
Sat Dec 7, 2019, 08:51 AM
Dec 2019

My 22 yo son graduated technical college last year to be an industrial electrician, motors, PLCs,
automation, etc. He had job offers before he even graduated, he accepted an entry level union position at a paper mill and is making about 80k a year with good benefits.

All his friends in the trades are doing good, electricians, plumbing, welding, etc.

I’m an electronics/radio technician by trade, almost impossible to find experienced technicians, especially people willing to travel and/or be on 24 hour call to respond to site casualties, very easy to find a job making decent money.

True Blue American

(17,984 posts)
16. Those are the jobs that
Sat Dec 7, 2019, 11:11 AM
Dec 2019

Need help. But even they require specialized training. The reason Community, and Trade Schools are flourishing.

After years of pushing paper jobs there is now a huge shortage of workers who can do things.

True Blue American

(17,984 posts)
22. Depends
Sat Dec 7, 2019, 11:43 AM
Dec 2019

Certain trades can not be outsourced, but in recessions people tend to do plumbing, electrical work themselves.

What is desperately needed is a massive infrastructure bill that would put millions to work. Trump took a few out but is now threatening to send 12,000 troops to Iran.

KY_EnviroGuy

(14,491 posts)
5. Simple explanation from the UK that makes sense here too....
Sat Dec 7, 2019, 08:41 AM
Dec 2019
Why is UK unemployment still low? We are working longer hours
Pay has not recovered from the 2008 crisis so staff work longer to fill the gap, boosting labour supply and limiting wage rises
Larry Elliott

Link: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/nov/17/why-is-uk-unemployment-still-low-we-are-working-longer-hours

and:

Feel poor, work more
Explaining the UK’s record employment
12 November 2019

Link: https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/feel-poor-work-more/

In summary, more people are having to work and work more hours just to keep their heads above water thanks to Republican policy, both past and present. The recession allowed companies to screw us over royally.

In addition, the Trump administration's tax cut legislation will make this situation much worse for workers in the coming years.

KY.......
 

Hoyt

(54,770 posts)
8. Certainly don't trust job numbers uttered directly by trump, but I think BLS reports are reasonably
Sat Dec 7, 2019, 09:17 AM
Dec 2019

accurate, especially after analysis have commented on things like the effect of the end of the GM strike.

One can argue whether they are good paying jobs, whether it's a blip, whether it will continue, etc., but I think the numbers are as accurate as we can get in a large, complex economy.

GetRidOfThem

(869 posts)
9. Thank you for pointing out to me...
Sat Dec 7, 2019, 09:26 AM
Dec 2019

..I might be paranoid.

The real issue is that with this much distrust in our leadership, any scheptiscism makes complete, on the surface, sense.

Ah, but there is this questiion: with unemployment being so low, why aren't wages rising?

Oops, another set of numbers to fudge...


Oh, I am so paranoid!...

 

Hoyt

(54,770 posts)
10. Wage increases have exceeded inflation, that's a good thing although nothing to get excited about.
Sat Dec 7, 2019, 09:51 AM
Dec 2019

Productivity has not increased a lot recently. And increases in productivity are more likely due to investment in computers, equipment, training, etc.

A lot of us got used to larger pay increases in the 1990s and early 2000s. But, we are competing in a global economy. Our pay increases are roughly equivalent to other advanced countries.

The people that really concern me are those at the lower end of the pay scale. They need help, whether increases in pay or healthcare, etc., or a combination. Personally, I'd go for job security, a better safety net, etc.


This is one of many articles that pop us when searching "why aren't wages rising with low unemployment:"


https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2019/11/14/wage-growth-why-isnt-pay-climbing-faster/2580205001/

 

Humanist_Activist

(7,670 posts)
14. Uhm, starting pay hasn't increased for many jobs in over a decade...
Sat Dec 7, 2019, 10:53 AM
Dec 2019

I look for a new job today, and its 8 bucks an hour, I started a job 10 years ago for the same amount. Its ridiculous.

Has there been no inflation in that entire time period?

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/08/07/for-most-us-workers-real-wages-have-barely-budged-for-decades/

 

Hoyt

(54,770 posts)
17. The link says "real" wages have barely budged. If it's the same type job, not sure
Sat Dec 7, 2019, 11:12 AM
Dec 2019

Last edited Sat Dec 7, 2019, 01:07 PM - Edit history (1)

inflation adjusted wages should necessarily budge, other than we like them to. But, it is disappointing.

Anon-C

(3,430 posts)
11. You are not paranoid enough. The fact that the MSM uses it mechanically, and reflexively, to rebut
Sat Dec 7, 2019, 10:18 AM
Dec 2019

...any wrong doing or evil like Trumps crimes or spending cuts for the poor....sick trolls!

 

Humanist_Activist

(7,670 posts)
13. As far as I'm aware of, unemployment numbers only count those collecting unemployment and looking...
Sat Dec 7, 2019, 10:43 AM
Dec 2019

so has never been an accurate count of actual employment numbers. This dates back well before Trump, by the way.

Also, they rarely talk about the quality of work, for example, how many of these jobs are 8 dollars an hour and 20 hours a week or less, etc.

Johnny2X2X

(19,066 posts)
18. People are acting like this jobs report will matter
Sat Dec 7, 2019, 11:26 AM
Dec 2019

I’ve seen several articles saying this means Trump will for sure get to run on the economy next year. No one is going to remember November of 2019’s jobs report close to election. If the good reports continue then yes, but remember most economists are still predicting a recession next year.

 

Lexee

(377 posts)
24. The revised the last numbers significantly. I remember Bush time we would get one set of #s
Sat Dec 7, 2019, 02:41 PM
Dec 2019

and then a couple weeks later, they were adjust much lower. We had that happened to Trump the last set of numbers. They adjusted them down.

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