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redqueen

(115,103 posts)
Mon Dec 9, 2019, 12:47 PM Dec 2019

Futurist Sees 'The End of the World as We Know It for Average Person'

Israeli Roey Tzezana says middle-class jobs will vanish, polarization between rich and poor will grow – and it will happen faster than you think

...

This forecast is not good news for most people: The polarization in the job market will only grow and the inequality between those who buy the new smart machines, those who build them, and those who cannot – will only widen.

...

In an interview with TheMarker, Tzezana sets aside all the most recent reports, such as that of the World Economic Forum, which shows that in addition to the forecasts of millions of jobs being eliminated, new jobs are created too – because this, he says, is simply the wrong debate.

“The deeper and more interesting questions are not whether new jobs will be created, but what is the pace that old jobs disappear and new jobs open up, or what is the pace at which the tasks the jobs require change and create a demand for new expertise, specializations and skills. The speed of closing tasks and opening new tasks is changing, and it is overwhelming,” he says.

...

Recently the Boston Consulting Group released a report on global trends in future jobs and found that the jobs of the future are ones such as waiting on tables, cleaning, child care and nursing care – and the groups of job skills with the highest rate of growth after digital skills is social services and education.

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“We see large polarization of the job market, in other words a continuing rise in polarization,” he says, mentioning what Andrew Haldane, the chief economist at the Bank of England, said back in 2015. Even though technology has created many new jobs in recent centuries, at the same time it has led to polarization too, those with jobs requiring expertise, preferably in the exact sciences, have higher wages, while those who make do with a lower level of expertise receive lower pay. This is a result of the continual inflow of professionals in the middle whose jobs are disappearing because of automation – those with a medium level of expertise.

Haldane asks, justifiably, whether we want to become a society with extreme inequality with a small number of super-rich and a great number of poor, which we are already seeing in the United States, says Tzezana. We are seeing people moving from the middle class, for example manufacturing workers whose factories closed down because the work moved to China. Now factories are returning to the United States, and this doesn’t help anyone because they are automated, he says.

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https://www.haaretz.com/amp/israel-news/business/economy-finance/.premium-futurist-sees-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it-for-average-person-1.8227728
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Futurist Sees 'The End of the World as We Know It for Average Person' (Original Post) redqueen Dec 2019 OP
It reminds me of: moondust Dec 2019 #1
Yup! redqueen Dec 2019 #2
That's the accelerator. The_jackalope Dec 2019 #15
Or in Russia that led to the Russian Revoultion, or the conditions that led to both Blue_true Dec 2019 #9
Great article Johnny2X2X Dec 2019 #3
We need a lot more people talking about this. redqueen Dec 2019 #6
Except for an occasional Sunday evening program on CBS appalachiablue Dec 2019 #12
I know of an effort to build "robotic" tractors. Blue_true Dec 2019 #11
"Futurist" lol n/t PasadenaTrudy Dec 2019 #4
Any comment on the substance of the article? nt redqueen Dec 2019 #5
That's the term. Why do you think it's funny? yardwork Dec 2019 #16
One self kick for the evening-only folks. nt redqueen Dec 2019 #7
I have been pointing this out here on DU. Blue_true Dec 2019 #8
Precisely. redqueen Dec 2019 #10
this is why Russiapublicans are so desperate to join Putin's oligarchy Hermit-The-Prog Dec 2019 #14
That is a frightening thought. nt redqueen Dec 2019 #18
Significant population reduction is imperative for humans to live PufPuf23 Dec 2019 #13
It's going to get even worse than that... NurseJackie Dec 2019 #17
Kick for the nite crew appalachiablue Dec 2019 #19

moondust

(20,006 posts)
1. It reminds me of:
Mon Dec 9, 2019, 02:23 PM
Dec 2019

1. Conditions in France that led to the French Revolution;

2. Conditions in Russia that led to the Russian Revolution.

redqueen

(115,103 posts)
2. Yup!
Mon Dec 9, 2019, 02:31 PM
Dec 2019

Now combine the effects of this fourth industrial revolution with the increasingly disruptive effects of climate change.

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)
9. Or in Russia that led to the Russian Revoultion, or the conditions that led to both
Mon Dec 9, 2019, 10:41 PM
Dec 2019

WWI and WWII. I believe the coming revolution will be by far the bloodiest in history.

Johnny2X2X

(19,123 posts)
3. Great article
Mon Dec 9, 2019, 02:35 PM
Dec 2019

AIs are going to eliminate a lot of technical positions that people are not prepared to lose. We're already seeing engineering jobs get eliminated by SW tools that write and test code. I work in avionics, we've got a tool suite that eliminated a million hours of engineering time for testing the health management system of an airliner. We have 1 super smart systems engineer managing the inputs for the tool which wrote 450,000 test cases and their test procedures which we'll be able to load into a simulation to test.

Learn to code... well, it helps, but you better know how the systems that you are coding for work.

Warehouse jobs are currently being automated at an amazing rate. Driving jobs are going to be automated fully within 25 years. Those are the obvious ones. But what about Accountants? What if there's a single AI that your company can subscribe to that will turn your accounting department from 25 people to 2? That's right around the corner. AIs are going to change the way we think about automation. Higher skilled jobs will be able to be automated.

appalachiablue

(41,177 posts)
12. Except for an occasional Sunday evening program on CBS
Tue Dec 10, 2019, 01:45 AM
Dec 2019

or PBS/NPR I haven't seen much in broadcast news. They're mild and never tackle the mass job loss.

Print news is different and you have to look in the business and science sections for decent reports.

WHAT GOVERNMENTS ARE WORKING ON MASSIVE DISRUPTION IN THE HUMAN LABOR FORCE?

HOW ARE PEOPLE SUPPOSED TO ADAPT TO THIS & CLIMATE CHANGE???

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)
11. I know of an effort to build "robotic" tractors.
Mon Dec 9, 2019, 10:54 PM
Dec 2019

The justification is noble, the tractors would make safe, nutrient-dense food less expensive for consumers. By using the tractors to prepare fields, plant a variety of crops and weed to control weeds, a farming operation eliminates tens of thousands of people labor hours and produce a higher quality product. Farm technicians can monitor the tractors at several farms from one air conditioned control room, leaving only to verify that the tractors are performing a task right. A large farm can go from 9 or 10 permanent employees and more than a hundred seasonal employees to maybe 5 or 6 permanent employees.

While there is some benefit to where we are headed, unless governments step in to insure equity, the eventual outcome is likely to be devastating.

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)
8. I have been pointing this out here on DU.
Mon Dec 9, 2019, 10:37 PM
Dec 2019

This industrial revolution is unlike any other in history. In previous industrial revolutions machines did eliminate jobs, but expanded demand by making products that were out of financial reach for some available, thereby greatly expanding employment in several associated industries and at all pay points.

The current revolution almost completely replaces people and more importantly DOES NOT expand net employment. When 12 jobs are compressed into 3 higher paying jobs, that leaves 9 people with a serious problem. In addition, modern machines are so complex and costly that only a few can afford them and that few uses those machines to wipe out competitors, causing job loss. Lastly, our tax structure has been rigged to the point that people that can afford new machines and take in almost all of the money can refuse to share with the rest of society by using tax avoidance schemes that are now legal. But history has shown over and over again how the situation of inequity gets resolved, the poor just won't starve to death, they revolt against those that they see as their oppressors, causing broad waves of violence and death that can last for decades.

PufPuf23

(8,840 posts)
13. Significant population reduction is imperative for humans to live
Tue Dec 10, 2019, 01:51 AM
Dec 2019

comfortably and not destroy their own habitat and most of the living wonders of Planet Earth.

The population is going to drop is a fact. There is at least an opportunity to influence when and how and where population and impact of human activity can be managed in the population decline.

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