with a reminder that this assumes a fair election without voter suppression tactics either...........

so i'm just trying to show there is some hope, but let's not be naive and assume this thing is "wrapped up"

Besides, Trump's a one trick pony. All he knows is division, ridicule, fear, and megalomania. The undecideds have seen this for three years. They, too, are getting tired of the shit show. If Trump changes tactics and develops a more conciliatory approach, he'll lose at least half of his base, whom he's cultured and lead into a largely hate-filled, uncompromising lot. So he's painted himself into a shrinking corner.

It's true that the popular vote may not reflect the results of the electoral college vote. But there's nonetheless a breaking point with the popular vote that will render the EC results impotent. Michigan and Pennsylvania won't break for Trump this time around. That's a path to defeat for Trump.

BUT again, none of this matters because...

If the Senate acquits, all bets are off. A resurgent Trump, after acquittal, will make certain that the election is tilted in his favor. He'll have no legal or Congressional restraints to do anything he wishes to fix the election. And if he can't fix it, he'll create a reason to cancel the election.

If the Senate convicts, we'll have to deal with Pence, who also will be a candidate for impeachment, since he's indisputably a co-conspirator in the very unconstitutional acts that will have gotten Trump impeached and removed. IMO, we'd rather have that problem than the aftermath of a Senate acquittal of Trump.

These are people who are simply looking for an excuse to justify their predetermined vote, and Fox will hand it to them no matter who the Dems nominate.

Only about 40% of those undecideds are actually in play, and if Trump wins half of them, he won't win, but it will be a lot closer than these numbers imply.

usually does win elections if it is big enough. The margin Clinton won the popular vote by was near the extent of what a person would win by without capturing the EC as well. That can be seen in the narrow losses she has in the tipping point states. Had she won by say, another million votes nationwide, it's highly unlikely that she wouldn't have won enough in those states to take their electors. In our history there have only been a few times that the majority winning didn't also win the EC. It's a pretty rare thing, but have have some recency bias since 2/3 of those times have happened in the past 20 years.

So, let's look at this poll. We have 48% in the bank, and another 18% in the possible category. Of that 60% look to be pretty reliably republican voters, so let's just assume that they call come home to Trump. That's 10% back to him. Not it's 48-34. Let's say that the democrat is able to win about half of that number, so they get 5% of that vote. The other 5% stays home or votes for a 3rd party.

That leaves you with the democrat at 53% and Trump 44%. While it's conceivable that Trump could again sneak out a EC victory with a 4 or possibly 5% nationwide loss, it's going to probably be impossible to do so if you are losing by 9%.

These numbers could change though, the 18% seem to be atleast open to the possibility of voting democratic, even with their largely conservative leanings. That tells me that there are candidates who they think they would vote for. I can't be sure without data on that group, but I'd have to imagine that the larger group of them would be more likely to vote for Joe Biden and less likely to vote for Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders.

they are independents, as though they have an open mind, and then always go vote for whoever has the "R" beside their name. They probably prefer a different Republican than Trump but if they don't get it they will vote for Trump. I would count on no less than half of that group voting for Trump again, putting that number up to at least 43% for Trump, roughly the same amount of support that always seems to poll for him.