General Discussion

MineralMan

(146,324 posts) Fri Jan 10, 2020, 02:49 PM Jan 2020

Will the Whole Iran Thing Just Fizzle Out?

I think that's very possible. Trump is embarrassed, because nobody really applauded his assassination of Soleimani. That's because nobody really had any idea of who he was. Now, with the Secretary of State admitting that they didn't know what he planned to attack or when, the less said the better. The Iraqis will probably withdraw their insistence that US troops leave their country, which will save Trump additional embarrassment. His trick didn't work to distract from the impeachment either. Fail!

Then, there's Iran, which should be absolutely livid about the incident and ready to blow up things real good. But, while the retaliatory attack against a US base was going on, some idiot manning anti-aircraft missiles shot down a Ukrainian airliner. That sucks big time for Iran. Again, the less said, the sooner forgotten. Iran will have to pay up with compensation for the lost lives, but it was a really stupid mistake. Iran really doesn't want to get into a major conflict with the US. They'd lose that in a big way.

So, what would be gained by extending the conflict? Nothing, really. So, odds are it will just be shrugged off, if not officially, in practice. Just one more stupid incident in a long line of stupid incidents.

Does that sound right to you? Or am I missing something here that would justify keeping the fight going?

10 replies

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Will the Whole Iran Thing Just Fizzle Out? (Original Post) MineralMan Jan 2020 OP

Chances are that Iran will act through its proxies while maintaining some level The Velveteen Ocelot Jan 2020 #1

I get you. However, in the short term, I expect it to MineralMan Jan 2020 #3

Agree Johnny2X2X Jan 2020 #5

But Pompeo has a huge bug up his butt about Iran, The Velveteen Ocelot Jan 2020 #7

But maybe Trump doesn't risk another embarrassment just now. MineralMan Jan 2020 #9

+1. Time to just let it go. Similar junk has been going on for 50+ years. Hoyt Jan 2020 #2

Yes. Our overall conflict will go on, but the hot stuff will probaby MineralMan Jan 2020 #4

Exactly. I think Iran should get some credit for warning us of the missiles. I think that Hoyt Jan 2020 #6

There's a good chance of that TlalocW Jan 2020 #8

Andrew McCabe doesn't think it will fizzle out. The Velveteen Ocelot Jan 2020 #10

The Velveteen Ocelot

(115,805 posts)

1. Chances are that Iran will act through its proxies while maintaining some level

Reply to MineralMan (Original post)

Fri Jan 10, 2020, 03:05 PM

Jan 2020

of plausible deniability. They aren't going to let this drop, but they'll continue to operate through Hezbollah, various Shiite militias in Iraq, the Houthis in Yemen, and foreign fighters in Syria, while restarting their nuclear weapons program. I don't think they'll be lobbing any more missiles at US or coalition troops but they've proved they can. I don't think this is over. Trump stepped on his own dick, bigly.

And then there's ISIS - eliminating Soleimani benefits ISIS, which His Lardship has falsely claimed to have conquered. They'll be back.

MineralMan

(146,324 posts)

3. I get you. However, in the short term, I expect it to

Reply to The Velveteen Ocelot (Reply #1)

Fri Jan 10, 2020, 03:09 PM

Jan 2020

wind down. And, since we only think in the short term these days, it seems, we won't make the connections when other things happen.

Johnny2X2X

(19,095 posts)

5. Agree

Reply to MineralMan (Reply #3)

Fri Jan 10, 2020, 03:14 PM

Jan 2020

It will wind down. The Iranians made their point and can tell their citizens they made the US pay. Trump was embarrassed so wants it to go away. Token additional sanctions means nothing.

The Velveteen Ocelot

(115,805 posts)

7. But Pompeo has a huge bug up his butt about Iran,

Reply to MineralMan (Reply #3)

Fri Jan 10, 2020, 03:23 PM

Jan 2020

and he's one of the few people His Lardship listens to. And we're now hearing that he (Trump) is disappointed that killing Soleimani didn't get him the public accolades he expected, and instead just pissed off Congress. I expect he will do something else to poke the hornet's nest again. Iran might not take any direct action, but Trump might. The dog didn't get wagged enough.

MineralMan

(146,324 posts)

9. But maybe Trump doesn't risk another embarrassment just now.

Reply to The Velveteen Ocelot (Reply #7)

Fri Jan 10, 2020, 03:28 PM

Jan 2020

He's gotta be a little worried that he torqued off some Republicans with his assassination and stirring up of hornet's nests. I mean Gaetz in the House voted for that non-binding resolution and a couple of GOOPer Senators read Pompeo's briefing off.

I mean, there's that impeachment thing and all, and he can't afford to piss off Senate Republicans.

Once burnt...maybe Pompeo gives bad advice...

Hoyt

(54,770 posts)

2. +1. Time to just let it go. Similar junk has been going on for 50+ years.

Reply to MineralMan (Original post)

Fri Jan 10, 2020, 03:08 PM

Jan 2020

Personally, I'd like to see most sanctions lifted on Iran. We've been starving Iran under trump's reign and it has accomplished nothing.

I can't fault a country for seeking nukes when we don't invade countries with real WMDs and we are the only country to have used nukes to kill people.

MineralMan

(146,324 posts)

4. Yes. Our overall conflict will go on, but the hot stuff will probaby

Reply to Hoyt (Reply #2)

Fri Jan 10, 2020, 03:11 PM

Jan 2020

die off at this point for a while. Everyone ended up with egg on their face, and toilet paper stuck to their shoes.

Hoyt

(54,770 posts)

6. Exactly. I think Iran should get some credit for warning us of the missiles. I think that

Reply to MineralMan (Reply #4)

Fri Jan 10, 2020, 03:17 PM

Jan 2020

surprised the trump admin, as well as those who thought it was the start of WWIII.

I hope Iraq ultimately forces us out. Although they have told us to leave before, they changed their mind when they realized they were better off using our troops as pawns to protect the government.

TlalocW

(15,388 posts)

8. There's a good chance of that

Reply to MineralMan (Original post)

Fri Jan 10, 2020, 03:27 PM

Jan 2020

If something isn't going right for Trump, he tends to abandon it and leave others holding the bag.

TlalocW

The Velveteen Ocelot

(115,805 posts)

10. Andrew McCabe doesn't think it will fizzle out.

Reply to MineralMan (Original post)

Fri Jan 10, 2020, 08:07 PM

Jan 2020

Iran’s measured response to the general’s killing has many people believing the worst of this crisis has passed. Should we be relieved? By limiting its response to U.S. military targets, Iran sent a powerful message to its own people that Soleimani’s killing would not go unavenged. Tehran managed to accomplish this without escalating a military conflict with the United States.

However, U.S. intelligence and law enforcement officials would be well-advised to remember that Iran’s most provocative actions have often been asymmetric attacks conducted through proxy forces and terrorist elements. It is those deniable, civilian-focused attacks we should be looking for as this situation unfolds. As a counterterrorism leader for the FBI, it was my job to figure out how events abroad would impact us here. And I am afraid the saga of Soleimani is far from over.

For many years, it was the prevailing opinion of most Iran watchers that staging an attack inside the United States was a red line that Iran dared not cross. We assumed Tehran’s well-founded fear of an overwhelming U.S. response was enough to keep its terrorist plots focused on less capable adversaries....

On Wednesday, the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security released an intelligence bulletin to law enforcement groups warning them to remain alert to the possibility of Iranian-sponsored terrorist and cyber attacks in the United States. They were right to do so. Iran is unlikely to forget about the death of Soleimani. Despite cool-headed comments lately from Iranian leaders, missiles that missed their marks in the Iraqi desert may not be enough to satisfy their desire for retaliation....

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/01/09/andrew-mccabe-oped-iran-soleimani/

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