Did the trade war turn rural counties against Republicans?

This article is a bit old but probably still relevant to what rural voters are still thinking.

By Dan Kopf & Gwynn Guilford

Blue wave—or periwinkle ripple? The debate about whether Democrats’ gains in the House of Representatives were better or worse than expected rages on. One narrative everyone seems to agree on, though, is the realignment of rural America into a bulwark of support for Donald Trump and his Republican party.

Except this doesn’t really stand up to scrutiny. According to exit polls conducted by CNN, 56% of rural voters chose a Republican candidate in 2018, compared to 61% who went for Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016. This vote-share decline was larger in rural areas than it was in urban and suburban ones.

This isn’t just Trump-related data noise. The Republican share of the rural vote was also lower than the last midterm election, in 2014, though the decline was less than in cities and suburbs. In fact, the Republican advantage in rural areas, a margin of 14 percentage points over Democrats, is the smallest since 2008, according to CNN exit polls.

More: https://qz.com/1462463/did-trumps-tariffs-turn-rural-counties-against-republicans/