Trump loves this. What easier way to close the borders completely. Stop all immigration. I bet next week he does this.

and if done correctly and with right intentions

China has stopped all public transportation between provinces...
But Carrie Lam refuses to close the Hong Kong border... Hong Kongers are furious !!!!




If this guy and his colleagues are right.... whoa....

I don’t think stopping immigration will make a difference.

They really dont know how many are infected, its China, so all estimates are iffy

(1 person, spreads to 14 people). This quickly could turn into a disaster, we are not prepared for.

Last edited Sun Jan 26, 2020, 02:27 PM - Edit history (1)

Just trying to make DU look stupid???

with Miller and his Zero tolerance I wouldn't put anything pass them.

Didn't you hear they don't want pregnant mothers from other countries to have their babies inside of the US, because their children will become US citizens. Countries that were mentioned Russia and China.

Assuming this thing really is an R value if 3.8 and a fatality rate around 3-5% (and that is a big if). Twice as communicable as influenza, several times deadlier, with no vaccinations or existing immunities. The 1918 flu pandemic had an R value of about 2 and a fatality rate of 2.5%. annual modern flu outbreaks (with our vaccination efforts) have an R value of less than 2 and a fatality rate of 0.1%

It would explain why China reacted immediately with the extreme action of quarantine of the entire city.

I had hoped and assumed this was just another scare, but it might really be extremely legitimately scary

(Stephen King - The Stand)

I'm a geek like that.

I will never forget the line...

“He left her a dollar tip crawling with death”...

Bats transmit 60+ diseases to humans. SARS? Yup, it was the consumption of fruit bats. Ebola? Yup. Marburg viruses? Yup.

Have the humans who eat bats learned nothing? Yup.

in my 5-6 trips to China-- all over.. I never ran into anybody eating bats. :&gt ) Of course that's rather anecdotal..

They have identified this as coming from a type of snake. 🐍🐍🐍🐍

I don't think a bat can win the election.

Who eat bats.

The result was, of course, predictable, and entirely the libtards fault.

But I am. Really don’t think it’s necessary to put the “sarcasm” icon on there when it’s that far out there.

The penis is bad, the gun is good.

I mean this is some really serious shit, this level of communicability. I hate that my first thought, after that, was “how is the orange turd going to try and spin this”.

Trump knows more about virology than anyone.

It probably came from eating snake meat.

Don’t eat rodents, bats, and reptiles

....thats when the shit really hits the fan

Anybody seeing Mother Abigail?

Do you really think you can quarantine a Chinese city of 11 million during the New Year holiday and not have a few people get out?

Its going world wide.

His Twitter bio... "DrEricDing
Public health scientist👨🏻?🔬/ Epidemiologist / Health Economist / Science advocacy / Taught for 15 years at Harvard / NYT-featured pharma whistleblower
Virginia & Washington DCscholar.harvard.edu/ericdingJoined January 2009



This tweet, just past 1pm,eastern time, today


Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) Tweeted:
UPDATE: Transmission of #coronoavirus estimated at 2.6 by another research group (lower than the 3.8 initial reports). But 2.6 is still extremely bad —each infected person will infect 2.6 others. Even the authors admit #CoronaOutbreak containment will be very difficult. Thread: https://t.co/Gg2vyIevL4

Link to tweet

If it goes up it's way more catastrophic.

On edit: it's at 2.5, the 3.8 was an initial estimate. Like an earthquake, it can first be estimated to be a 6.5 but actually was a 6.3 or less.

I know WASHINGTON TIMES-- but..

https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jan/24/virus-hit-wuhan-has-two-laboratories-linked-chines/?fbclid=IwAR2zygbNS02CFbl2scC5KD6OErpWtesiqQkZRuHgXdZlsaZgLsb0j3r272o

Maybe a coincidence, maybe not. The news media seems bent on blaming the outbreak on Chinese people eating weird shit.

But its the Chinese, and I have heard reports it can be passed on through eye contact, so masks dont even help

I missed that..



not funny but... fuunny...

Masks aren't enough, sprayed in the face from infected cough, you get it on your hands, rub your eyes, etc

sensor.

Over the top alarmist language in response to an emerging, if urgent public health situation is irresponsible, and a blot on Dr Feigl-Ding's reputation.

The current R_0 estimate is 2.5. The R_0 of cited 3.8 was amongst the earliest (highly speculative) estimates. An R_0 of 2.5, is in line with the common flu.

Language like "themonuclear pandemic level bad" has no place in a public health discussion. He will be rightly be censured by his colleagues.

With an uncertainty range of uncertainty range: 1.5-3.5.

Link to tweet

Reprehensible.

it was extremely unprofessional.

I'm glad several people here have responded with more info...

I have 2 friends in Wuhan one of whom is in the USA now and debating whether to go back. He plays in the Wuhan Philharmonic...

There is currently a travel ban in place.

They've only just tightened it down even more. Just suggest to your friend to stay safe at this point.

Unless I were working in a capacity as to have an extradition team, I'd not enter Wuhan currently.

It's not good there at this moment.

So, it's already here.

The original article and then the informed discussion we find below. Thank you DU.

The infection quotient has been reduced from what I understand, from the initial, alarming 3.8 to 2.6. Still worrisome, enough that we can't completely dismiss the danger.

Strange, too, that the other night I rewatched the movie Contagion with Gwyneth Paltrow (limited appearance since she turns out to be one of the first infected) and Matt Damon playing her husband. The movie provides a credible scenario of how one of these nasty viruses, once turning into pandemic strength, would be handled by the world's medical community, the political leadership and the public at large. Panic is the last thing you want to encourage, particularly early on although panic is what you're ultimately going to get if any communicable disease becomes widespread.

I wonder if the doctor's reaction is tied to the admitted apprehension in the medical community that a worldwide pandemic is not a question of if but when. Netflix is running a documentary now--Pandemic--expressing just that because of the incredible amount of traveling we do around the world. It makes containment really difficult and is why scientists are involved in world-wide monitoring, an attempt to identify unusual viral strains before they infect large populations.

In any case, I think it's wise to keep up on the developing stories. One tidbit I read indicated that infected individuals can show no viral symptoms for up to 3 weeks. This could be nasty.

What could possibly go wrong...?

Trump is the worst sort of person to have in leadership in a true crisis. That being said, even if this is a false alarm, I could easily see Trump and his cronies closing down all our borders, using the virus as an excuse.

Without a doubt, he would capitalize on any ensuing panic and fear. Because it's what wanna-be dictators do.

He's as bad if not worse than the damn virus!

than the virus. I believe that.

The quarter annual apocalypse.

I have not an ounce of panic left to give.

What the R0 value represents that is very alarming. Over the span of half a day yesterday of reading the reports on this this virus went from the quarantine of the one city in one region of China to encompass some 50million people in several countries. That is a pretty rapid progression.

villages inside rural china. 100's of millions were on the move the past few days. This could be a nuclear level epidemic. Will China re-open transportation back to the factories in Guangdong Province and Shenzen? The social chaos could be staggering.

I think CNY was today, so now it's about the implications of returning. This will be a bigger story this week, I am sure.

if 1 billion people catch the virus around the planet... 40 Million may die.

And 1 billion isn't out of the question.

This is a huge pandemic possibility.

102 years after the Spanish Flu pandemic that infected 500M (1/3 of the world population) and killed at least 50M.

56 out of 2019.

Not enough cases are resolved.

The death rate vs. documented recoveries is way higher than that, even if all the numbers we're getting from China were accurate.

That makes the death likely higher than 2.77 (since the more recent infections have not yet had time to die).

But yes - as there are more infections we will get a more accurate death rate.

40 people died.

I suspect the reduced rate is due to early detection and treatment (to sustain the victim through the infection)

have not yet had time to die.

The death rate on the first 1000 (presumably now post-infection) is likely more accurate.

But it hasn't happened yet. Maybe the next one will do it.

The planet can only handle 10 million or so humans, so something will eventually come along and restore order.

Gets it and infects the whole gop
one can hope.

only hope, he did say "he's the chosen one".

contagion? was very good.

did not mention live markets.

The pandemic yet to come, perhaps very soon.

Between people consuming animals carrying pathogens, and permafrost melting releasing pathogens that we've never encountered before, I think we might be fucked.

Excellent read.

Admit to, it's probably a lot worse.