Thanks for the illuminating post! My heart goes out to everyone affected.

Would this help?

if you do have to be in contact wear a mask, gloves and sanitize everything afterwards.

should offer continual airdrops of rations.

and I hadn't even thought about basic supplies...

Thanks for sharing your experience and your in-laws current situation. How scary for them.

hoping the situation is eased soon.

Most people don't even have symptoms.

family caught in the midst of this horror.

https://www.livescience.com/new-china-coronavirus-faq.html

It's a cold virus that jumped from snakes to humans.

China’s National Health Commission (NHC) said on Sunday that the new coronavirus is contagious even in its incubation period, which lasts up to 14 days, and that the virus’ ability to spread is getting stronger.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047701/coronavirus-contagious-even-incubation-stage-chinas-health

It's not that funny since people have died and millions are impacted by the lock down.

Which doesn't make it very deadly at all.

It may be the bigger problem will come from things like food shortages in the quarantined cities. And perhaps civil unrest, depending on how long things go on.

The real problem is the markets where every possible kind of potential food, alive and dead, is crammed together in unsanitary conditions. If China were to regulate those markets, things like this would be greatly reduced.

Also, those figures are almost all from people getting symptom treatment in hospitals, including respirators for those who get really bad.

Not to push panic or anything. Just that after we get reassured about our own chances, then we can realize that 3% from a fast spreading disease is bad. If it got out of control our own hospitals could fill up and not be available for new cases that needed hospital-level support.

since, as you pointed out, we only know how many have sought medical attention.

And what percentage of the population has actually gotten sick? How virulent is this particular corona virus, meaning what percentage of people exposed actually get it? So far a couple of thousand out of how many million? Yes, I know many more will get sick, and unfortunately more will die before this is over, but the coverage is making this sound like EVERYONE is going to get sick, and huge percentages will die.

I will say, I'm in awe of China's ability to build a hospital to handle a thousand or more patients in less than a week. I sincerely doubt we have any such capability. Of course, the fact that they can do this says volumes about their expectations for such a need.

You only get bodies not being picked up with horrifically high death rates. And a huge percentage of the population actually getting sick.

Right now, neither of those things are happening.

which, based on the frenzies about vaccination around here, makes it pretty darn deadly.

the only real "frenzies" is from anti-vaxxers

As soon as flu season starts, there is thread after thread reminding people to get vaccines - which rapidly turn into allegations that people who choose not to vaccinate are murderers, pretty extreme insults directed at the intelligence of anyone who reminds folks of actual scientific data about the flu vacine (like the fact that 42% of the people who acquired the flu last year were vaccinated, or that the effectiveness of the flu vaccine has declined every year since 2015, and that it is rarely more than 50% effective - the average recently has been in the 30% range), etc.

So yes, frenzies. People who insist that everyone must be vaccinated against influenze are unwilling to have a rational, fact-based conversation with those of us who read and review scientific literature and make a different personal decision about whether or not to be vaccinated.

anti-vaxxers SUCK

done here, I will NOT argue about this

incapable of having a rational, fact-based conversation about influenza vaccinations. That's within the definition of "frenzies."

People should make their own informed decisions. With full information, some (perhaps even most) will choose to be vaccinated, some won't. That is, - of course - what people who promote unthinking obedience on this matter are afraid of.

Of the first 41 patients confirmed to have this strain of coronavirus, 6 died. That's a death rate of 15%.

Looking at current deaths v. confirmed infections, the rate is 2.77%. But the confirmed infections include very recently diagnosed who have not yet had time to die.

The information you linked to is a mixture of information about coronaviruses - generally - which do include colds. It also includes SARS and MERS - which certainly cannot be classed as "not very dangerous." While it is true that some don't have symptoms - nothing in the article suports your assertion that "most people" don't have symptoms.

The specific information about THIS corona virus from the article contradicts your assertions:

+ Confirmed cases 1975; deaths 56. 56/1975 = 2.8% death rate. (Compared to the flu that everyone freaks out at- about 20 times the death rate of influenza.)
+ Symptoms: fever, cough, difficulty breathing
+ Wuhan is on lockdown (affecting 35 million people) - which, I'm sure they always do for "not very dangerous" viral infections.
+ The CDC recommends avoiding non-essential travel to Wuhan - and ordered all non-emergency US personnel and family to leave Wuhan - again - I"m sure they always do that for "colds" that create no symptoms.

They may be lower; more likely they are higher. Either way, it is clearly a dangerous pathogen.

And 1975 numbers are suspect because of all the mutations they may have undergone during all those years.

It will be interesting to see what the statistics are once more information has been gathered and analyzed.

not 1975. This virus did not exist in the human population in 1975. (The "n" in its name means new 2019-n-CoV)

1975 is the number of reported confirmed cases when the story was written.

I'm guilty of posting while tired, and consequently not making a whole lot of sense.

you’ve drawn us a clear picture, thank you

Sending best wishes to your extended family in Shiyan and elsewhere...we’re all hoping for the best, but...this is just - overwhelming

Hope for best. But the description of China's health system is concerning. Private care is at the cost of others.

Last edited Sun Jan 26, 2020, 05:24 PM - Edit history (1)

than this coronavirus will.

The flu has a vaccine, this virus does not. They both spread easily, early estimates have this spreading ever more easily than the flu.

The flu has a mortality rate of .14% this virus is currently closer to 3% (this can change).

The difference here is this virus has not spread as far as the flu due to the attempts at containment.

The people of China are rightly concerned for their health and safety. I don't understand people equating the outbreak there to a normal flu outbreak.

one too many. And we all grieve for the victims. But there is no need for panic either and as we know news outlets often emphasize the worst possible outcomes in order to get more attention to their stories.

https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-lesser-threat-to-americans-than-flu-2020-1

And then we have this article in HuffPost.



https://www.huffpost.com/entry/what-is-coronavirus-wuhan-china_l_5e28637ac5b67d8874aa900c

I see nothing about the US in it. It's about China and the people there and the impact this will have on rural areas.

This virus is dangerous to them, and without containment it would be a global danger that far exceeds influenza. However, containment efforts are in place and the Chinese citizens are bearing the brunt of the current outbreak.

Not to sensationalize the severity of the virus. The government set this disaster in motion years ago. Instead of building out the latest generation of rail to every corner of the country, they should have put more resources towards the health care infrastructure.

The government response, or lack thereof, is the bigger problem. A hotline should’ve been established weeks ago. Call the number, wait for an appointment. Instead the Hubei government stuck their collective head in the sand as long as they could. When they ran out of air, they went hammer-down with the quarantine, to appease party officials in Beijing. And now you have the masses overwhelming the hospitals to get diagnosed and treated. In the process, the uninfected are getting infected while waiting to see a doctor.

The larger issue on the horizon is the impending humanitarian crisis this will cause. Wuhan is a net importer of food. With roads either blocked or destroyed to enforce the quarantine, the food supply will be affected. While I’m certainly not an expert on the PLA, China doesn’t really have a domestic force similar to our national guard. The PLA is trained to for mostly combat missions, not to provide disaster relief. Even then, what I have learned about the PLA while living in China, is that it’s riddled with corruption. How the military’s role in all of this is going to play out in the coming months is anybody’s guess. But I know this, everyone my wife has talked to says this is a vastly different situation than what happened with SARS. We’ve crossed the Rubicon and we’re teetering on the edge of a Black Swan event. Not because of the virus but the nature and structure of the Chinese government.

You don't know.

Many like myself have never been to China and do not fully grasp the situation there.

READY.GOV has some good emergency ideas that all should review.

Right?

Under quarantine Wuhan gas stations are closed, so gas expenditures are low...as in ZERO.

It will be the same here if we start quarantining cities. You won’t get any.

This is ominous.

People holed up in their apartments only going out to find what little food is left. The ultimate shelter in place scenario. No way out now, and it coukd last a week at least.

Unimaginable what 11 million people in Wuhan must be experiencing, the fear alone of what is happening must be overwhelming, let alone if they are feeling sick.

I was aware of some of China's problems in this regard, but some of what you said is new to me and eye-opening.

As f'd up as things are here with the Trumpster fire, I'm still glad I live in the U.S. of A.

MURICA, where you can be incarcerated for medical debt. RAH RAH!

It is very informative.

I wonder how Dumpy Trump's government would respond in a similar situation? I bet not much better. We had a hookworm outbreak in Alabama recently which is a clear indication of a failed sewer/septic sanitary system. Not to mention all the measles and chicken pox outbreaks which are due to a failed vaccination program for whatever reason.

Last winter, in late February, you could not get into the emergency rooms around here in rural TN without a 3 to 4 hour wait due to the flu. Luckily for us we could use the VA which wasn't as crowded. We visited 3 hospitals before we decided the VA was a better choice. I have since found a website that tracks the waiting times in emergency rooms around here.

Wuhan is basically the population size of NYC. I had no idea.

Thank you for making the situation more real for us.

Details of this square with one of my friend’s experiences working there for a few months some years ago: the prevalence and nonchalance of smoking and crowding in various venues.

So far, more people get shot in Chicago every day that have died from Corona virus. It’s only in the news because, hey, it’s new.

Take good sense precautions, wash your hands, don’t travel to China right now, and focus on the bigger dangers in life- like an unrestrained orange idiot in the White House.

Here's a few things you seem to not be aware of or are choosing to ignore:

A. This is a "novel" virus that has never been in the human population, thus there is absolutely no immunity to it in any of us. For what can happen when a population is exposed to a new pathogen, even one that is not terribly virulent in an established population please read up on the effects of European colonization in the New World.

B. Currently this virus seems to have a long incubation period allowing people who are exposed to it to move around a great deal before they become symptomatic

C. Researchers know believe people who are carrying the virus can transmit it to other people before they become symptomatic.

D. It appears the transmittability of this virus is at least twice what the Spanish Flu was in the early 1900s.

E. Researchers are becoming more certain the reservoir of the virus is bats, same source as SARS and MERS.

F. As of my posting this the US has gone from 3 cases in 3 states to 110 confirmed cases in 26 states.

I am no expert on things viral. I did take a graduate level virology class in the late 80s, didn't go any further with it because, quite frankly, the little buggers scare the snot out of me and I like sleeping without nightmares. Here's the problem with things that grow or change exponentially. If you wait to take action, or be concerned, until it is clear there is a real problem, it's too late and you are screwed.

We have lots of things to be concerned about, what you mentioned, what's happening with Climate Change, etc, etc. Problem is, on the short term, this virus has the potential to be a huge danger to the entire world.

No vaccine, no treatment, transmittable before the carrier is symptomatic, highly contagious, uncertainty concerning virulence. What could go wrong? Hopefully it will burn itself out but comparing its potential effect to the number of people being shot in Chicago is disingenuous at best.

It stands at 5 cases confirmed. Two in central VA tested negative, still waiting for the one in northern VA. SARS- @8,000 infected, 800 deaths. MERS infected 2,500, deaths 850+. The rates of infection quoted are low compared to the actual number according to several experts who rate the transmission rate to be a 2+ to 3+ (meaning that each sick person will pass the virus to 2-3 people, minimum). The CDC stated today that they think the transmission rate is @1. Why they think that, I don't know. Many experts also agree that the actual number of people who are sick is much higher than quoted.

When I see a Harvard Medical School trained Epidemiologist talking like this I get concerned.

This is from his Twitter feed:

HOLY MOTHER OF G*D - the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!! How bad is that reproductive R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad - never seen an actual virality coefficient outside of Twitter in my entire career. I'm not exaggerating...

This is a link to the article that has the rest of what he has to say at this point.

https://disrn.com/news/harvard-epidemiologist-says-coronavirus-is-thermonuclear-pandemic-level-bad/

BUT - his post/article was based on research that has been updated (the authors of the study that put it at 3.4 decreased it to 2.6 by mid-day yesterday).

Had the initial number held, the alarm would have been warranted. Now that it has been revised downward, there is still reason for concern - but not quite the level of alarm level warranted by the initial (unrevised) report.

and they think the infected population is much higher than China states. Which is part of the problem. Can you trust what a country, who is notorious for suppressing the truth, says about a situation that they are not prepared to deal with, and apparently lack the resources to actually test the people. The CDC said today that part of their mission was to put together test kits that would make it easier and faster to test people. They knew that market in Wuhan was a source and sprayed it supposedly with something. They allowed it to stay open and it kept spreading. There is a train station about a block away. It was, as the mayor stated, badly managed.

I'm not seeing any statement from the CDC that lists R0 or transmission rate. Everythign I'm seeing is in the 2.6 - 3.4 range.

Last edited Tue Jan 28, 2020, 12:48 AM - Edit history (1)

I am amending that-per transcript that it was "Several different groups looked at it. Most articles have had interpretation that the Arnot is somewhere 1.5 and 3. That’s not a dramatic difference." Or they edited it.

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/t0127-coronavirus-update.mp3.
They also have a transcript, which I have not read. It was stated in the Q and A section of the broadcast.

There actually is a significant difference between 1.5 and 3. At 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 generations, a disease with an R0 of 1.5 increases 1.5, 2.25, 3.375, 5.0625, 7.59375. An R0 of 3 would increase over those same generations 3, 9, 27, 81, and 243.

That means for the R0 disease that from the 1 patient in the US, and an incubation period of roughly 5 days there would be between 7 and 8 patients. For a disease with an R0 of 3 there would be 243 patients in 25 days.

That is a significant difference how quickly the disease spreads.

with most of our medical system privatized to the point that people are terrified to use it, a severe illness bankrupting them. Because of that, hospitals in most areas have been underbuilt and cost cutting keeps them short staffed. An ordinary flu season here means mandatory overtime, every bed filled, and people who should be in hospital sent home.

I'm hoping they're wrong about how easily transmitted this virus is, but I made the same guess about it early in the outbreak.

I am sorry to hear this. I would imagine that without foods coming in, panic will ensue.

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/t0127-coronavirus-update.html

This part refers to the people being followed and tested apparently.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question is from Mike Stobbe from the associated press.

Mike Stobbe: Hi. Thank you for taking my question. Doctor, could you say more — you said there were 110 people in the U.S., are being monitored. The samples have been taken from each of them and you’re awaiting results. Could you be more specific about what is going on the evaluation of those 110 people? Can you say when the test kits are expected to be sent out. I’m sorry, you kind of alluded to a decision that I guess CDC is discussing about whether to change its travel recommendation. Anything else you can say or are you thinking of doing screening for all Chinese passengers? You dangled something big in front of us and we’re all kind of wondering what you’re referring to. Thank you.

Dr. Messonnier: Sure. So, let me take those in order. In terms of the PUIs, the process is like this. We identify somebody who potentially has exposure to Wuhan and has a fever and a respiratory illness. We would consider a PUI to be somebody who had contact with a confirmed case and had fever and respiratory illnesses. Those patients are coming to attention in a variety of formats. Some have presented themselves to a health care provider. Others are being detected through vigilance at health departments, the airport and healthcare providers, so when those patients are identified that procedure is set that the health department gets called first. The health department calls CDC. We have folks here on site 24/7 through our emergency operation center. The CDC people who take the call discuss the case with the health department and clinician and based on the discussion decide whether that patient merits additional laboratory diagnostics. Specimens are taken and they are sent to CDC where they are tested. The time lag between a patient — the decision that a patient needs further laboratory testing and a result is somewhere around a day, depending on where that patient is being seen and how we can most efficiently ship it. That number of PUIs is that general number and as you say, we’ll be working our way through the ones that will require additional laboratory testing and you’ll see patients identified as either being confirmed cases or hopefully rule out as a confirmed case. In term of the lab kits what I would say is we’re working as fast as we can, and I am going to say one to two weeks. We’re doing everything we can to make it as fast as possible. We understand that for physicians, clinicians and health departments it’s important to have the kits as close as possible to the patients geographically so we can provide a result but it’s another week or two. In terms of the last thing we are intermittently thinking about this decision. As you know there’s lots of new information coming out of china in terms of cases, in terms of what is going on there outside of Wuhan. There are other provinces. The case numbers. We’re trying to take that into account as we move quickly as we can towards any decisions. I expect that there will be a decision and announcement about that within the next day, but I can’t give you a time because we want to make sure that we’re being expedient and sensible about what kind of decisions and recommendations we’re making.

Paul Fulton: I think we have time for two more questions. Next question, please?

Operator: Our next question is from Lisa Irizarry from news day.

Lisa Irizarry: Hi, thanks for taking my question. I just want to make sure I understood, 110 persons under investigation, they were either themselves traveling in china in Wuhan or they had contact with somebody who had recently traveled, is that correct?



Dr. Messonnier: Generally, most of them, yes. As I said before we have a general guideline. However, because there is so much unknown, we are being cautious about testing and being responsive to concerns of the clinicians and the health department. The decision about whether that patient gets tested is a joint decision between the clinician, the health department and CDC. So, in general that is the correct definition, but around the edges there may be some additional testing and know that this issue also, what we consider a PUI is something that we’re in active discussions out with our state and local partners. In the definition of the PUI also know that while that number is 110 — we’re prioritizing based on PUIs that might be at higher risk. For example, in general somebody who has a very close contact of a confirmed case and has respiratory symptoms might be a high are priority than somebody with a mild cough and traveled to Wuhan two weeks ago. Those are not real examples but just know that within that 110 we also are prioritizing based on risk.

Lisa Irizarry: One quick follow up question, it’s 26 states. At some point will you release which states those are?

Dr. Messonnier: As you know, we are incredibly sensitive about releasing names of states in this kind of context. So that would really be up to a state health department whether they want to make that release. What I would say is if you want to know whether there are any PUIs in your state, please contact the state health department and let them make the decision about whether they want to release that number or not.

Lisa Irizarry: Thank you very much.

Paul Fulton: Last question please.

Operator: Our final question today is from Ronnie Koenig from the “New York Times”.

Ronnie Koenig: A couple of things. I want to get more clarity on this the flight from Wuhan. I didn’t think there were flight from Wuhan. Your screening people who came from another city via Wuhan and are you able to get that information or do they present themselves at the airport? I’m not sure how that’s happening unless there are flights coming. I just want to ask one more thing. Your asking people to present themselves to come in for testing if they have been to Wuhan? I mean 110 out of — I mean we know there are so many people who have traveled recently from china. That is a very small number and we do see they are asymptomatic and not older with under lying conditions. So just a little confused about — are you — is there scarcity of testing?

Dr. Messonnier: There’s no scarcity of testing and I’m sorry if you could let me respond now.

Ronnie Koenig: Sure.

Dr. Messonnier: Thanks. So, again, as I said, flights from Wuhan, direct flights have certainly been stopped. But there are a variety of people who are called broken itineraries, they may be transiting from Wuhan through another country back to the united states. There are still individuals who are in the middle of one of those itineraries when I am talking about screening passengers from Wuhan, I’m talking about those people. As I said earlier, I don’t have numbers from the past day, but we are gathering those people and they are still part of the same screening. In terms of the message to travelers, our focus is on returning travelers from Wuhan who have respiratory symptoms and fever. This is something that we’ve been trying to make sure, we’re being very clear about to returning travelers and one of the things that’s really important about the screening at the airport is that we’re not just identifying people who are sick, we’re passing out those messages so that people who returned from Wuhan who came back a week ago, for example, if they have today a fever and respiratory infections, my message to them is please call your health care provider. It’s important you get analyzed and you may need to be tested. As many of you know several of the confirmed patients in the united states were asymptomatic when they came back. Developed symptoms later. I want to compliment them because they were prompt in calling their health care provider and identified themselves as traveling to Wuhan. Patients who are returning are an important part of this equation and I’m sorry I misspoke, travelers from Hubei not just from Wuhan. If you recently returned from Hubei and you have a fever and respiratory symptoms, please call your health care provider so you can be appropriately checked out and we want to make sure you get the best care possible.

Paul Fulton: Thank you, Dr. Messonnier. Thank you all for joining us today for this briefing. Please remember to visit the 2019 Novel Coronavirus webpage for continued updates. If you have further questions, please call the CDC media line at 404-639-3286 or email media @cdc.gov.

Operator: Thank you. This does conclude today’s conference. You may disconnect at this time.

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CabalPowered hasn't posted again for a while and I'm wondering how the in-laws are doing?

Thanks to everyone for your concern. Our family is doing well, despite the situation. I'm a bit busy today and don't have a lot of time for a longer narrative but here's the situation as we know it:

• Shiyan is on total lockdown. No traffic except emergency vehicles and food deliveries. You cannot to leave your compound (they use the word compound where we normally say complex). There are lots of videos of people trying to leave by car that get intercepted by police and fined.

• There was a positive test for someone in their building, but the family does not know what has happened to them.

• Several companies have been given permission to deliver groceries and for now, our family has plenty of food.

• We were very worried about my wife’s cousin who lives in Wuhan. He managed to get out right before the lockdown and is Shiyan.

• My brother-in-law and his family have not left their apartment in almost two weeks. My father-in-law, who just retired and is very social, is going stir crazy.

• Masks are impossible to find. Our family lucked out as my wife and I left a bunch of masks from when we lived in Shanghai. We tucked them way back in a closet for safe keeping.


That’s about everything happening within our own family circle. I can pass on what I’ve seen on WeChat about the situation overall, but I miss a lot because my Mandarin is terrible:

• Any data on infected, treated and deaths is inaccurate. How inaccurate is obviously debatable. We’ve been watching stats for Shiyan and one government website listed a death in Shiyan yesterday and today it says zero.

• The hospitals all over the country are overwhelmed, and supplies are short.

• Modular quarantine hospitals, like the ones in Wuhan, are being built all over China and away from the city centers.

• The propaganda machine is working overtime. Lots of feel-good stories about the government response. I’ve seen videos on how the government is disinfecting all the cash in the banking system and how the PLA is sending doctors everywhere.

• The national mood is incredibly depressed. Nobody wants to talk about anything but the virus.

• This has had a weird effect on international relations. Everyone is really, really angry with North Korea as they closed the border almost a month ago and haven’t offered any help. On the flip side, relations between China and Japan haven’t been this.. friendly, in a very long time.

That’s about all I have for now but I’ll try to provide updates as I can.

Glad to hear that the family is holding up okay, all things considered.