but I'm not sure that this is beneficial .. either to the public, or to the DU community in general. What purpose is served here? Are we all supposed to be desperately staring at our computer screens .. waiting for the latest "scores" on the games? I think we'd be better served here to all step back and take a breath.

Again, without intending any disrespect.

I want to know what the latest updates are.

If you don't, you can hide the treads.

My daughter stands to lose $6,000 in three weeks if she and her husband and three kids cancel their trip, unless Singapore is put on whatever CDC list it takes for the trip insurance to kick in.

(or one of them) for a situation like this.

Singapore takes emergencies very seriously.
Either they will shut down their country (refusing to admit people) or they will have a very robust screening system.

Singapore, says it's just not the time for a carefree family vacation, but they're expecting the situation to be well-managed.

I follow what's happening on the John Hopkins page. France confirmed another two cases for 3 total.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Sadly this thing is probably here to stay. So far the death toll seems low but It could break our health system if many people develop complications and need advanced treatment.

Is still reporting only one in CA, one in WA, and one in IL. It is missing the newly reported case in AZ - and a duplicate in one of the first 3 states.

The map will be updated soon.

The disease/death numbers have a flag in each box: Last update: a few seconds ago. This gives the impression that the site itself was updated then.

I have now discovered that what they mean is "Last refresh: a few seconds ago."

In other words they aren't telling you when the data was updated - it was when the user refreshed the browser.

The site/data update is buried near the bottom of the page (separate from any data): That date is 1/26/2020 at 11 AM.

If you download their google doc (bottom right corner), you'll see that they list suspected cass in Hong Kong (244), Shanghai (72), Unnan (36), and Fujian (20). Beyond that just one or two here or there. They have no suspected cases in Hubei province - the epicenter of it all.

So I'm not paying attention to the "suspected data" as a reliable source for pending cases.

One of the things I find interesting is the Deaths v. Recovered ratio - about 1:1

They will be updated and can give you a good look at how close you may be to a zone where the infection exists in the US. Knowing there are three potential cases puts Virginia on the map to watch. Hot zones to watch are now Chicago, Orange County, CA, Seattle, and Maricopa County AZ.

I'm just suggesting that, even as reputable as Johns Hopkins is, it isn't a good source for information about suspected cases in the US.

In the meantime, I'll keep doing the same thing that's kept me largely cold and flu free for more than a decade: Wash frequently, never touch a surface with my bare hands (unless it's a faucet pre-washing). I had upcoming surgery and bosses who liked to pretend they weren't sick (so they just kept coming into work). Since I couldn't afford to get a respiratory infection, I started being scrupulously careful. It worked so well (thorugh two surgeries - with one or both bosses ill in advance of each one) that I've kept it up. I may have had the influenza once between then and now, and get one mild (3-day) cold about every other year.

Be careful if you are close to a hot zone since they have confirmed that a person is contagious who has the virus but has no symptoms yet.

Fortunately, I live in the back woods on a farm and work from home, so I can afford to stay away from people for weeks if necessary. One more run for supplies after pay day and I'll be set for two months if I have to.

We have always kept a store of dry and canned goods, as well as a well stocked freezer. Since I pay all bills online, it's easy to stay away from other people.

Here we go again.

Ebola is spread by touch and fluids, This is airborne! This bug is the real deal.

And am I the only person that looks at the numbers and marvels at how such a small number of cases actually gets reported?

Three here, one there, five somewhere else. Out of a world population of over 7 billion? Even the numbers in China are quite low: a couple of thousand in a group of cities that have what? 50-60 million people altogether? People should do the math and see what the percentages are.

This disease is infectious before people even show symptoms (unlike Ebola). So just give it a little time, will ya, before marveling how small the numbers are.

Not the considerably larger number of suspected cases, and a forumula that minimizes the number of infected (by assuming no one new gets infected for a full 14 days after exposure) and dead (a rate of 2.77% - based on currently dead v. confirmed diagnosis): By April we'll have 1545 infected and 43 dead. By July 477,145 infected and 13,217 dead.

It's an exponential process - and because it is predicted to be deady at a rate of 20 times that of the flu, and infectious at a rate of about double that of the flu - it could get really ugly.

Especially if, instead of the 5 cases we know about there are 50 (probably not an unreasonable estimate.) That moves up the timeline considerably. You hit a million by may 17, and by July that would be 4.8 million, not 477 thousand, with more than 130,000 dead.

And maybe we evacuate the 1000 US citizens from the most infected spot in the world and turn them loose in the US (rather than imposting a 14 day quarantine)

It's not time for full blown panic - but it's not time to stick your head in the sand. By the time we hit really big numbers, it will be nicer weather. Windows will be open, people will be out side. I would expect this to decline (or at least not grow so rapidly) - since that is what typically happens to contagious respiratory illnesses.

But do the math and see what the actual truth is. Using the same conservative estimates adn the confirmed 2062 infections in China, you hit 1.5 million infected by 5/3 - with 46,000 dead.

The lowest infection rate I've seen is 2.6, the longest incubation period 14 days, and the death rate I used was based on #dead today/#confirmed cases today.

I would certainly get it.

I calculated the actual flu death rate from 2018-2019 using the CDC numbers (61,000/45,000,000 = .001356 = .136% (less than 1%). I calculated the current death rate based on the CDC confirmed infections (2118) and reported deaths (56) = .02644 = 2.6%. Then I compared the two. (2.644/.1356 = 19.49) They've added a few more infections - but no more deaths since the last calculation, so the death rate is slightly different.

Based on current numbers comparing the current death rate from coronavirus to last year's flu death rate, the coronavirus is 19.49% more deadly than the flu (last year).

If I calculate it based on the first 45 infections - whose infections are more likely to have all resolved one way or another that death rate was closer to 15% (I can't find the exact numbers at the moment - that would make it 110 times more deadly

It is likely that the 2.644% is an underestimate, since it includes all confirmed infections - even those just diagnosed and unlikely to have died. I've seen predictions of around 4%. If that is the case, it is about 29 times more deadly.

thank you for your response.

The 4% death rate (higher than the one I calculated) is not my own - I don't know the basis for that projection, nor is the 15% death rate calculated from the first 45 cases.

The death rate for influenza I calculated is consistent with the range of rates that are easily found. (I picked a single year for a specific reference).

Have you considered he circle of people that the currently suspected cases have been in contact with?

From what I know, the incubation phase is about five days, (things keep getting updated). In one week, you will see the that the numbers have most definitely have increased, and the following week, etc.

Depending on how well this is contained, (which is doubtful) the increase in cases can be exponential. It is not like 1 give it to 2 who gives it to three, etc. If each infected person gives it to only two other people and that continues, well the math is obvious.

I can pretty much assure you that you will not be marveling at the low numbers in a couple of weeks.

I can pretty much guarantee there are more than 5 cases in the US and many more coming as more and more people come on contact with those who came in contact with the five we know about.

were based on a 14 day incubation period. I don't even want to think about a 5-day period.

But - based on a 5 day incubation period, assuming 50 current cases (there are more than 60 suspected) - we pass 1 million infected by mid-march, with 51,000 dead. (Assuming the lowest tramsission, the lowest death rate, and no infections that take fewer than 5 days)

Current (lowest) estimates are that each person gives it to 2.6 persons. Death rate (based on # of deaths / # confirmed cases is 2.77 - it actually is much higher at this point since some of the cases were JUST diagnosed and may yet die - the death rate of the first 40-ish cases was 15%)

Thanks for doing the math.

symptoms. Unlike this corona virus, that spreads even before the infected person shows symptoms. So this could be really bad.

It's no wonder people were so scared.

It sounds like this one is survivable in most cases.

You have to be fairly obsessive-compulsive to watch it at this level....but I am.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1itaohdPiAeniCXNlntNztZ_oRvjh0HsGuJXUJWET008/edit#gid=0

It seems like he is updating the list during his day/NA night.

I'm thinking VCU. Trauma center and they probably have neg pressure rooms. My roommate has an appt tomorrow at the VA hospital. Hmmm.

They are updating tomorrow. Then again on Thursday.

I suspect it will get out to the national reporting level tomorrow if it turns out to be anything.

Just had a flight yesterday. A few minutes ago it felt like my throat was getting sore, but I know that's just my imagination or acid reflux, since symptoms wouldn't show up this soon. Also, my immune system is pretty incredible (knock on wood).

But imagine if I did somehow contract the virus yesterday--I'm at a hotel, interacting with people from all over the world. I'll be flying again Thursday and I have several more flights scheduled over the next month. That is how shit spreads so fast.