Fate of 'national security Democrats' provides key to House majority

Four months ago, seven freshman Democrats accelerated the impeachment process with an op-ed in The Washington Post. With less than a year before Election Day, their electoral fates represent a microcosm of the Republican challenge to win back the House majority.

For much of the impeachment discussion and process, Republicans have been emboldened. They believe Democrats will be held accountable for the time spent investigating President Donald Trump and experience a backlash similar to the one Republicans faced in the late 1990s when President Bill Clinton was impeached.

While the national narrative paints one scenario, an individual look at each race reveals a difficult road ahead for the GOP. The seven “national security Democrats” all represent districts recently represented by Republicans. All were elected in 2018 — four of them in districts Trump carried and three in districts that backed Hillary Clinton — with 53 percent or less of the vote.

Not only have the seven Democrats not shied away from impeachment, one of them, Colorado’s Jason Crow, is among the seven House impeachment managers.

Based on the partisanship of their districts now and the national political environment, along with the strength of the incumbents and challengers, the outlook is not good for the GOP. The best case scenario for Republicans, at this stage, is knocking off two or three of these seven freshmen. It’s also plausible that the GOP gets shut out — with no wins out of the seven races.



https://www.rollcall.com/news/campaigns/fate-national-security-democrats-provides-key-house-majority