General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsIf This Era of Automation Mirrors the Past, We're in Trouble.
Those who think automation fears are overhyped often cite the Industrial Revolution, which started towards the end of the 18th century, as a time when there were major changes in the labor market that ended up being positive overall. Most modern economies have experienced robust wage and employment growth since the Industrial Revolution, economists wrote for the World Economic Forum earlier this year. As automation has displaced workers in performing certain tasks, other technologies have emerged to restore labors central role in the production process by creating new tasks in which humans have a comparative advantage.
There is no doubt the Industrial Revolution improved the nature of work, increased how much we were able to produce and helped us progress in other ways. What arguments like this miss is how long it took for most of us to start feeling these positive effects.
In the case of the Industrial Revolution, peoples lives didnt improve for seven decades, Frey says. Thats two generations. I think we need to be very concerned about some of these short-term effects on people.
Frey says for seven decades wages were stagnant, food consumption decreased and peoples living standards deteriorated. The economy was doing quite well, but most of the workers werent seeing the benefits of that economy.
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https://www.inverse.com/innovation/if-this-era-of-automation-mirrors-the-past-were-in-trouble
YEP!
Sherman A1
(38,958 posts)We simply cannot wait 70 years for things to trickle down to those who will suffer the affects of the coming disruption in the work place.
redqueen
(115,103 posts)crickets
(25,981 posts)PETRUS
(3,678 posts)First, I don't doubt the possibility that automation could displace a lot of workers at some point (maybe even the very near future). Yet people have been sounding warnings about this for quite a while, and productivity growth (which is essentially a measure of technology replacing human labor) remains quite low.
My second thought has to do with the limits of growth. There is reason to believe we have passed critical ecological boundaries on multiple fronts (climate change, biodiversity loss, chemical loading, and land use), and we are heading into overshoot of a few others. Widespread industrial civilization of any kind, let alone a highly automated one, might not be possible for all that much longer in the grand scheme of things.
In the article you posted, the author notes that the benefits of industrial development did not lead to broadly shared prosperity on its own. It took class-based organization and mobilization to improve living standards for the population as a whole. The problem isn't industrialization (or automation) per se, the problem is the social/economic relations inherent to capitalism. And it's capitalism that is consuming resources and generating waste at an unsustainable pace. I'm neither for or against a universal basic income - I'm still developing my thoughts about that - but I don't know why we don't just attack the problem at the root.