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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsEarly missteps and state secrecy in China allowed the coronavirus to spread farther and fast
BEIJING It was almost the Lunar New Year and Pan Chuntao was feeling festive.
He knew there were reports of a virus in his city, Wuhan. But local officials urged calmness. There was no evidence it was transmitted person to person, they said. They had not reported a new case in days.
On Jan. 16, the 76-year-old left his two-bedroom apartment to attend a government-organized fair.
We told him not to go because we saw some rumors on WeChat of doctors getting infected, said Pans son-in-law, Zhang Siqiang. But he insisted on going. He said, The government says its not a problem, there are no cases anymore.
Pan and his daughter may now be among the nearly 12,000 people infected with a new strain of coronavirus an outbreak that has killed at least 259 people in China, spread to more than 20 countries, disrupted the global economy and left 55 million people in Chinas Hubei province under an unprecedented lockdown.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/early-missteps-and-state-secrecy-in-china-probably-allowed-the-coronavirus-to-spread-farther-and-faster/ar-BBZya9o?li=BBnbfcL#image=BBZaM5o|6
dewsgirl
(14,961 posts)the latency period, also the recovery rate is beyond alarming.
Ms. Toad
(34,086 posts)What is being reported as recovery is likely hospital discharge for the small portion of those infected who need hospitalization.
Think about it - how often do you formally report your recovery from an illness to your doctor? infections get reported because of testing; deaths because of death certificates. I never report back to my doctor that I've recovered from a viral infection, so if I'd been infected I owuld probably still show up as infected (or - at best - status unknown).
dewsgirl
(14,961 posts)Ms. Toad
(34,086 posts)There isn't mandatory reporting, so even if patients follow up with their doctors, it would not be consistently captured in a way that will be reported in the John's Hopkins (or anyone else's) third party reporting.
Ms. Toad
(34,086 posts)The first US case is apparently recovered (according to this article all symptoms but coughing were gone by 1/30), but there are no US recoveries included in the recovered count.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/31/health/washington-coronavirus-study-nejm/index.html