Nate gives us a 82.4% chance of winning

Omaha is pretty solid blue area and will give their vote to Obama

I think the key battleground states are going to be Colorado, Virginia, Florida, North Carolina and possibly Missouri if Akin stays in the senate race. If he wins even the smallest of those states, Colorado, he wins.

And that would make it 270-268 only the Romney map if we won NH.

So yes, you are correct that that could potentially come into play.

And ditto for romney winning on district in Maine, though I don't know that that's likely.

And after the LaPage fiasco I think Maine voters are fedup with the GOP

Either of those two states is just as likely as VA, if not more so, especially considering that Goode will be on the ballot in VA.
http://www.collegiatetimes.com/stories/20223/virgil-goode-wins-place-on-virginia-presidential-ballot

This is nowhere near a done deal.

I was just going by the states with increased media and the states with decreased media. Romney will be hitting VA hard (and expensive market, because the DC area is so inefficient being only 1/3 VA) but doesn't seem to be as optimistic about OH.


We cannot see their internal polling, but it sppears that they have written of WI, so their view is probably bleaker than indicated by punblished polls.

...is pulling out of Wisconsin.

I think there was a story this AM of a new media buy in 8 states including WI.

Please Ryan needs to do some campaigning in WI or else he's lose his House seat too. So they really have to keep running in WI. It is close and Walker probably has some dirty tricks up his sleeve.

I do believe that PA may be out of reach for them. Every time Romney takes a state out of contention, that helps Obama. That allows Obama to concentrate his more limited media funds. If Romney really has a huge cache of money (and I doubt all of that is real) I'd think it would be smart for Romney to keep spending in states that are not super-close -- just to stretch Obama's budget.

If Romney has truly pulled out of PA and MI, that tells me his billionaires are pulling back some of their promises.

at the moment. If the Dems can convince the seniors that RMoney will take away their benefits, it's gonna tilt to Obama.

They can win the whole election on that one issue, adn they seem completely inept at explaining what Ryan is up to.

They can't just say it is "Vouchercare". They have to explain what that means. They have done a piss=poor job of explaining it. There is still time, but they have to get to work.

It is the end of Medicare. Not "as we know it". it is the end of Medicare, PERIOD. You will get a voucher, which is just a piece of paper that says the government will provide PART of the cost of buying insurance from United Healthcare, Aetna, Anthem etc. You are own your own to buy the policy and if you are 80 with the usual set of health problems, there is no way that voucher will cover your insurance.

So before long we will have 15,000,000 seniors out there WITHOUT ANY COVERAGE AT ALL. What are we going to do with 15M seniors show up at the ER?

Why is this so hard for Democrats to explain?

This should not even be close.

It is a crime that we pissed away 3 nights of national TV coverage without anybody taking even 5 minutes to explain this in plain English.

then have to argue about coverage

can't believe they aren't pounding this into the ground

look how Bush, etal dropped the privatizing SS hot potato. why isn't this same thing happening now? what role are media playing? they're always the wild card, as they control 'information' flow

Hell, it is hard enough to keep my parents from being ripped off by your average neighborhood con artist. They would have no chance dealing with a big insurance company.

Moreover, what company is going to want to write insurance on 80-year-olds? The only reason Medicare works is that it includes the relatively healthy 65-year-olds in the rating pool.

Why is nobody talking about this?

So is NH for that matter. FL... Who can tell? I do think that state is a coin toss.

Nate Silver has OH a 71.8% probability for Obama today and CO a 71.9% probability. I don't see how CO is going for Romney unless Obama does something stupid of epic proportions.

Virginia is the key.

There are a lot of rednecks here!

It becomes very demoralizing to see Teabaggers on every corner where I am!

With NV as another strong possibility.

If Obama gets those 4 (CO, NH, NV, and VA) and none of the other swing states, it is a 269-269 tie.

See http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=wUx

Obama has to get Iowa or Wisconsin too (assuming that Romney wins FL, NC, and OH.)

But in that scenario, if Obama wins WI, then he can lose either CO or NV and still have 270.

I remember stories about Romney campaign pulling out from WI as in cutting ad spending.

WI is close and they can't afford to give it up. Besides, Ryan has to campaign there anyway in order to try to keep his seat.

If Obama wins both, he very likely wins. If Romney wins both, he likely wins. If they split, then it is extremely close, and could go either way, but Obama has an edge.

rMoney is only 50/50.

But it's all ridiculous because his chances of winning OH even with suppression is 0%.

You cannot flush a state's entire economy and then hope to win an election there.

No matter how bad Obama has been on economics (according to their view) he is miles ahead of "let Detroit go bankrupt."

under those circumstances. Each state get one vote in case of a tie. Its complex but they would still win even with a tie.

the president is chosen by the house of representatives and the VP by the senate.

And since Republicans have a lot of little states the prevail whether voting by representaive or voting by state.

So we need better than a tie.

And this is why Gore could never have been President. The House would have had sufficient cover (by their standards) to just reject Florida's slate of electors as irregular/messed-up, which they can do, in which case nobody has 270 and the House picks Bush.

You read it here first, folks.