General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsNow 53 Cases in US as 4 Countries now have community driven Contagion
Youre likely to get the Coronavirus. That is the message by Dr. James Hamblen today in The Atlantic.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/
That was this morning. 35 confirmed cases. And they suspected 100-200 then.
Tonight we are at confirmed 53 cases. https://nypost.com/2020/02/24/us-confirms-53-coronavirus-cases-including-evacuated-cruise-passengers/
Yesterday we were on the verge of a pandemic.
We are now there.
China, Japan, South Korea and now Italy have community spread contagion at this point.
We will not be able to contain it. It will infect millions. And currently the death-to-recovery ratio is right around 9%. It will send the global economy into a recession and maybe a depression. Travel and tourism will be the first impacted industries. Then industries that depend on trade. Other countries will not be able to put restrictions like China that has contained its rapid growth within Chinas borders. So, like SARS and MERS, it will spread faster and have a higher mortality rate globally than in China. Despite all the efforts to contain this, we will either need to find a vaccine or this thing is going to burn itself out.
defacto7
(13,485 posts)Just prepare. Stock up on stuff just in case. Those over 62 have lived through 3 pandemics already if you count 2009.
Newest Reality
(12,712 posts)Hmmm. That is very high, isn't it?
The estimates on the Spanish Flu mortality rate were around 10-20%.
berni_mccoy
(23,018 posts)SARS Mortality Rate was indeed 9% globally. 6% in China.
This disease is exhibiting a 9% death-to-recovery rate. That is, if you take all the people who the disease has run its course through (died or recovered), 9% have died. That doesnt mean that is the final mortality rate, which can only be determined after the disease has been either eliminated or run its course.
SDANation
(419 posts)Most of the deaths are in the elderly and those with preexisting conditions.
berni_mccoy
(23,018 posts)Because of the long contagious period of the disease with no symptoms (now known to be 4 weeks) and because the actual mortality rate cant be determined until the disease has run its course. See the definition of Case Fatality Rate for more information: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate
FBaggins
(26,757 posts)Yet (despite the dramatic change in that figure since you started using it) you keep citing it as though it were persuasive.
Tipperary
(6,930 posts)We are all going to die, you see?
Doom and misery.
FBaggins
(26,757 posts)My personal death to years on the planet ratio declined below zero/half-a-century some time back... there's no statistical evidence that I'm going to die.
Tipperary
(6,930 posts)I agree with you.
Mike 03
(16,616 posts)and don't even know they had it, because for whatever reason they were able to fight it off?
We know that many carriers are asymptomatic for up to 14 days. But could your immune system fight it off so efficiently that you just thought you had a cold (but be spreading it to others)?