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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsProfessor with history of correctly predicting elections says it's 'the incumbent's election to lose
A professor in political science with a history of accurately predicting the outcome of U.S. presidential elections said either Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) would win the primary election or the Democratic National Committee (DNC) will face a brokered convention in July.
Allan Lichtman from American University is the co-creator of "The Keys to the White House," a forecast model used to predict nine previous elections, according to The Independent.
"I think the most likely outcomes are [Bernie] Sanders wins or nobody wins," Lichtman said, "and for the first time in over 50 years, we actually have a convention nominating the candidate."
The prediction model also indicated that "it is generally speaking the incumbent's election to lose," according to the report.
The professor said that the model is not designed to forecast primaries, but there are signs that the upcoming Democratic convention could a brokered one.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/485298-professor-who-correctly-predicted-7-of-last-8-elections-says-bernie-sanders
edhopper
(33,615 posts)Trump is not like other Presidents.
guillaumeb
(42,641 posts)Of the people I spoke with, the idea that Trump is a lunatic is favored.
edhopper
(33,615 posts)Go Liz!
unblock
(52,317 posts)It's that I don't think we've had this degree of propaganda and voter suppression and foreign interference and cheating in a long time.
(Obviously, women and slaves couldn't vote early on; I mean in the last century or so)
edhopper
(33,615 posts)dawg
(10,624 posts)If Bernie wins, then go Bernie!
But if Bernie can't convince 50% of the delegates, and someone else can, then go That Person!
unblock
(52,317 posts)But I think his model flips if we have a recession
Goodheart
(5,339 posts)in2herbs
(2,947 posts)for the real D candidate to be selected.
stillcool
(32,626 posts)voted yesterday, and had such a hard time deciding. First time ever, I was so conflicted. Crown someone already, and let's get on with it. Eff everything else.