for disruptions in areas of our lives that we never thought would be disrupted.

Too big, too fast.

I went down to Bavaria for a small gathering on Friday. I heard that the Bavarian ministry of health canceled it at midnight. Half the people in the hotel on Saturday morning weren't even aware of the cancellation. I met with some colleagues from France and Russia in my hotel room, and turned around and returned to Düsseldorf. My outfit will pick up the €110 I paid in advance for the hotel room. But I was going to spend Saturday night in some bed alone, I figured I could just as easily do it in my house as in a hotel room in Munich.

The good news is that apparently my wife was given space on an El Al flight from Tel Aviv to Warsaw today, and should somehow find a flight to Düsseldorf by this evening.

and a convenient way for Trump to lull his supporters into a false sense of security to prop up his economy that "things are not that bad" "it's just a hoax"

But like everything else Trump, it's going to backfire.

Just wait and see ... I see one of two things possibly happening: (1) a rally goer will come down sick w/ the CV and rallies get canceled (as they should be, not to expose other innocent people) (2) people just will stop going period, without any prompting by government officials, and rump will show up, to a rally with dismal numbers, perhaps under a hundred or so supporters?

Idiot.

all around them people are sick and some are dying?

The truth will dawn on them too late.

Reminds me of Xmas, 2007. I knew a couple people whose homes were in jeopardy of foreclosure. I took a temporary retail job in a local mall that Xmas to pull in some extra cash. Business was slower than you would expect for the holidays. This was before online sales became strong enough to be a serious threat to brick and mortar stores. Regular employees said it was slower than usual.

A trickle of reports existed then about an economic slowdown and some home foreclosures, but Bush & co. were countering that with statements about a robust economy, good economic indicators, and strong holiday sales. My coworkers said, "Where?"

Eight months later, the housing market crashed and the Great Recession hit.

I've posted such links on this site before.

I'd say very roughly the bulk of economists were split between whether it would come before Nov 2020 or after. The majority agreed it was coming fairly soon. Some said, it wouldn't take much to trigger it sooner. And here we very probably are - though it will take time (a couple of quarters) for the numbers to become 'official' . I suspect there were schemes among the wealthy and Trump admin to try to band-aid it until after the election. Iyt was essential for Trump because it is about the only thing that has kind of gone right for him (off the momentum of Obama's economy - not because he did anything special except spend massive deficits from tax cuts for the 1% that the country could not afford to prop it up)

They should run ads of him calling this a hoax every day until the election showing the tally of Americans dying and ads showing how he stopped the CDC from warning the elderly to not fly - which will inevitably kill some of the elderly.

that tell people the truths about covid that Trump is suppressing. Not political ads that people might shrug off as partisanship in an election year, but public information ads featuring respected medical people from respected medical facilities or agencies. AMA, Mayo Clinic, etc.

They could be blunt about their message, e.g. "You may have heard that flying is safe for seniors, but it isn't, and here's why." Then explain how a virus can survive on a surface for several hours, how people on planes share circulated air in an eclosed space, sit close together, etc. Tell people that seniors and people with lung, heart, and immune disorders are mosr vulnerable.

We need other ads to tell people how this is different than the flu, how it attacks the lungs, blocks off air, and causes permanent damage if you survive.

No need to use scare tactics or tones. Calm, factual, informative tones are necessary now. We need factual information to make people take it seriously without panicking. Young people have died from it too, not just elderly sick ones.

Young people who do not take it seriously can spread it, causing illness among the more vulnerable.

Yesterday and today I ran into people who shrugged it off as a "new flu. So what?"

and I'm starting to think we should cancel. No known cases within forty miles of us--not even any known cases among state residents--but we would normally have about sixty attendees sitting quite close together, and our members and volunteers skew over fifty.

It is possible that this may not peak until late April or in May.

If it continues at the current rate, that means about 1 to 3-billion cases at that point. These are two new strains and we have to keep an eye on the numbers as it emerges.

I think we'll make a decision by late next week, but I hope the board opts to cancel.

And here in the femmedem household, although I'm an introverted stay-at-home, Mr. femmedem is an extroverted musician who spends a few evenings a week with his buds in a bar or rehearsing with his decades-younger, bar-hopping bandmates. I'm getting nervous about it, especially since I don't have health insurance and he's going to take offense when I ask him to wash his hands when he comes home.

Well, that does make things difficult.

Maybe keeping abreast of this and pointing out calmly that it is not like a common flu, etc,, would help a little? The femmedems do want to be healthy and live to go to meetings and the bar to hang out, etc.

Some caution and concern and even erring on the safe side might be most prudent at this juncture. Sometimes, people don't take a crises seriously until it has progressed to the point that they can't avoid it. Others don't like to "panic" and then play it down, sometimes too much. Strong concern about this is a middle ground and precautions fit in that stance.

Good luck with that and use whatever skills you have to make important points. You never know.

but it looks like it may be seasonal like the flu from now on & the 1918 flu came back much much worse the second season where it killed the most. Imagine us & the economy dealing with this again in the fall, will there be enough vaccine to make a difference?

Not for covid 19. It will take a year and a half before tgere is a covid vaccine.

Regular flu vaccine? Don't know. Companies and labs might be focussed more on seeking a covid vaccine. Flu vaccines are different each year because different strains of flu virus dominate each year. Every year new flu vaccines have to be manufactured.

Values dollars over common sense and life itself.

The psychophants who vote for this shit deserve what they get. It's the rest of us that don't.

"Federal officials say more testing for the illness will likely see the number of known cases increase."

DUH

But Trump/Pence say they are doing things in a perfect manner.

I reached out to someone who has known me for 25 years, he knows me better than anyone, I'm pretty sure he thinks I have completely lost my mind.😔

They are saying it is like the flu. They think they are not at risk because they are not over 70. They have no idea.

it would be hard to wrap your mind around, especially if you haven't been paying attention. Many including the medical community are about to be seriously taken off guard.😔