Odd that it looks like he had a chance in the early days to mend fences and expand his support. And he didn't. I thought at the time that if he had just made some conciliatory moves to the Democrats, he would attract some folk from the middle. And he didn't.

He started the crapstorm the very first day.

I've been getting buried during the day but watching this drop from 44.6% high back down to 42.8% in recent weeks has more than made up for it.

If it goes back down to 41% or thereabouts then we're in a commanding position toward November. For reference, on election day 2018 it was 41.8% approval and 52.8% disapproval.

I have no idea why turnout is so popular. It means next to nothing in comparison to preference.

Take one from one camp and add it to another. There is no chance you make that up with turnout. Anyone who believes otherwise is a nutcase.

I remember when we nominated Andrew Gillum instead of Gwen Graham in Florida 2018. The turnout clan was insisting it was a great choice. Gillum was going to do miracles for youth turnout. But anyone who knew the state of Florida and how that demographic lays out in a midterm knew it was an incredibly stupid primary decision. Gillum was going to be deemed so risky by the swing voters that it placed a race in jeopardy that should never have been in jeopardy, given the national tilt of that cycle.

Trump's approval rating impacts preference. A 1-point shift in that number more than overwhelms anything related to turnout.

James Comey changed preference in 2016. That's what decided the race. Nothing was even remotely close to as significant as that memo. Then after every close loss it's always the pathetic desperation to blame turnout instead of acknowledging that not enough of the people who did vote actually preferred your candidate.

And she was ahead in the polls against DeSantis. But Gillum accepted Bernie’s endorsement thinking the primary would be close. Which it wasn't. He did not need that rally. And it killed him.


For much of the race Gillum looked like a good bet. Then republicans started running ads tying Gallum to a socialist and it went down the tubes. We were still able to elect the Agriculture commissioner which had lots of power until the Republican legislature started stripping them away.

When you throw an avowed socialist label into the mix all other rules go out. Because democrats rejected the ideology almost as much as republicans. And Gillum openly accepted the endorsement of a self avoid socialist. Had Gwen been the nominee she would have won and pulled the Senate seat with her.

That’s what I believe. Honorable people may disagree.

if the coronavirus continues to escalate and he continues to show he has no idea what he is doing.

We shall see where he lands in the next two months. I suspect that's where the test of his support will ultimately land.

Ratings usually go up and down. That really isn’t true for Trump.