I honestly think that things are basically being ad-libbed by states and local communities because we have no real leadership at the top. Here in Indianapolis, Indiana, they've just shut down all of the schools until the beginning of April.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213081925

I just wonder if things have to return to normal in slow stages or if it could be all at once . I am guessing the former. Hope they don't have to adlib those decisions - there certainly needs to be some knowledgeable guidance provided. One can wish.

but I think everybody is just waiting to see what develops. If by early April it's still bad (or worse) they will cancel some more. I don't think anybody knows for sure yet.

I am not really asking how long it will last, i am asking, can it all be returned to normal at once at a certain point. Seems like you would get a spike of cases at that point instead of now (but I don't know if that is how it would result) - how to you gradually return things to normal? (or is that necessary)

Unless they know that community spread had waned, they won’t want to bring crowds together.

there.

However, their neighbor India, just reporting first cases. [Oooh]

[link:https://www.npr.org/news/specials/sars/timeline.html|

From the timeline:

Feb. 21, 2003: Patient A checks into a hotel. He infects 12 other people in the same hotel. Investigators say these patients in turn spread the illness to others in Hong Kong, Vietnam, Singapore, Ireland, Germany and Canada.

April 23, 2003: The WHO warns against all but essential travel to Toronto, Beijing and China's Shanxi province. The locations join Hong Kong and China's Guangdong province on WHO's list of areas that should be avoided because of SARS outbreaks.

April 28, 2003: After 20 days pass without reports of any new SARS cases, Vietnam becomes the first country to successfully contain its SARS outbreak, according the WHO, and is removed from the list of affected countries. Worldwide, there are now more than 5,000 probable cases of SARS and 321 fatalities in 26 countries.

April 29, 2003: The WHO removes its warning against all but essential travel to Toronto. Travel advisories remain in effect for Hong Kong, Beijing and two provinces in China.


It could be months to get it over with, especially with the size and number of people in our country.

but it's transmission rate was dramatically different (more deadly, less transmissible, trasmisssible without symptoms).

The timeline will likely be longer for this one before we can return to normal.

St. Louis mitigated and Philadelphia didn't.

Philadelphia spiked very, very high and came down as rapidly as they rose. It looks like a red spike.
St. Louis's curve rose gradually, never spiked, but the infection period was longer. The medical facilities weren't overwhelmed the way they were in Philly. The curve looks like two low hills lasting twice as long as the Philly curve.

Philadelphia, the flu passed quickly but overwhelmed everybody, approximately one month of severe activity that shot way up and came down quickly.
St. Louis it took about three months (Oct to December) but the curve was gentle and low, with a second uptick after the Philadelphia surge was over.

I'm actually watching the timelines for China and Italy.

in 1918 people stayed mostly in place, so there would more likley be distinct spikes. I would expect there to be more of a country-wide curve for this one.

morning emphasizing the need to widely deploy test capability in doctor's offices and clinics for rapid detection of future outbreaks. Experts believe re-purposed antivirals and an antibody agent should be available later this year, vaccines maybe year to eighteen months out. This situation is probably going to hang over the world until an effective vaccine is developed, tested, and deployed.

keeping from flaring back up.

But that’s just a convenient date in my opinion.

The incubation period is around 2 weeks That means actions taken today will start to show up in numbers in 2 weeks.

People isolating today might be ok after 2 weeks but people will make trips to pick up supplies or just to go briefly out. Those people’s risk continues from last contact.

Some or many people can’t isolate so there will still be cases. We may not able to completely flatten the curve but even slowing it is good because it reduces the demand on medical resources.

That’s why free readily available testing is so important. Maybe in the next two weeks that fiasco can be fixed particularly if states continue building capacity outside of the federal government.

I think we should expect to see a spike in two weeks as testing is ramped up The number of infected people is higher than the numbers show because most are still asymptomatic and haven’t been tested.

Look at other countries as a guide. China put restrictions in place a while ago. Italy just recently. We haven’t gone as far as either and still aren’t testing. Expect us to stay in an even more abnormal state however those countries do plus however long it takes for us to be that restrictive.