With top of ticket essentially set, here's how 2020 elections look

The Senate majority is in play, and the White House result is directly connected to the outcome. Democrats have 10 takeover opportunities to gain four seats for a majority but they can control the Senate by gaining three seats and winning the White House, because the vice president would break tie votes. Republicans have just two takeover opportunities to balance potential losses elsewhere. And their fate is likely connected to the president’s ability to win Arizona and North Carolina again, and by wide enough margins to pull two senators across the finish line.

Democrats are likely to hold the House. This has been the case for the entire cycle, except for a couple of weeks in February, when Bernie Sanders was seemingly surging to the top of the ticket and cast doubt on that narrative. With eight months to go, Republicans just aren’t prepared with candidates and resources necessary for a district-by-district battle with Democrats, on even political terrain, to net the 18 seats necessary for a majority.

Coronavirus is an obvious wild card in the race. The spread, duration and impact on the economy are unknown but could affect the president’s standing, traditional campaigning and voter turnout in a way that could upend key races. That means there are likely some twists and turns ahead in those already interesting sets of elections.





https://www.rollcall.com/2020/03/12/with-top-of-ticket-essentially-set-heres-how-2020-elections-look/