General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThis is serious. Romney really IS calling for the largest tax increase in history.
Last edited Mon Sep 10, 2012, 02:05 AM - Edit history (1)
I think I will beat this particular drum for a while because this is really getting to me...
Romney proposes to cut taxes by $5 trillion but change the tax code somehow to take in an extra $5 trillion in revenue so the net effect is zero.
First, it is obvious that a tax cut of $0 cannot stimulate the economy, or depress the economy or do anything.
If you cut taxes, totaling $5 trillion over ten years, and increase taxes by the same $5 trillion on exactly the same people in the same amount in order to keep your tax cut revenue neutral then you have done NOTHING. If somebody gets a $21,329.06 tax cut and they get a $21,329.06 tax increase then it accomplishes absolutely nothing. (Except creating more paperwork.)
It does not do anything. It's a circle jerk.
So we know that is not what Romney is proposing to do. Straight so far? Romney proposes to cut revenue $5 trillion and raise revenue $5 trillion and we know the new taxes cannot be coming from exactly the same people getting the tax cuts.
Okay, so somebody, somewhere is going to be made to pay $5 trillion of taxes that they do not owe under the current tax code. That is the largest increase in somebody's taxes ever.
For who ever's taxes are being cut, that is a $5 trillion tax cut.
For whoever is doing the paying, that is a $5 trillion tax increase. (A $5T tax hike that doesn't reduce the deficit by a penny... think about that!)
Now, of course there will be some overlap. Some people will be on the receiving end of both cuts and increases. But, as established above, those winners and losers cannot be symmetrical. Otherwise the plan would be identical to doing nothing at all.
The only purpose of cutting $5T and raising $5T is to redistribute money in some preferred direction.
For instance, if the Romney proposal is supposed to create JOBS (*snort*) then it must take $5 trillion dollars from somebody who is not creating jobs and give that $5 trillion to somebody who will create jobs.
(Probably the famed "job creators"
And since we know that the Romney cuts (which are specified) favor the richest, and we know that there cannot be perfect overlap, then the $5 Trillion of tax increases must be increasing the tax liability of the non-richest.
And the non-richest greatly outnumber the richest.
So we are talking about a tax increase of anywhere from $1 trillion to $5 trillion with the part of the plan that is increase leveled directly at the great majority of Americans.
I have never heard such a tax increase proposed. It used to be political suicide to propose large tax increases on the common people. The fact that it is proposed that this large tax increase on almost everyone be funneled to the rich, rather than paying for a war or reducing the deficit or some normal function of a tax increase makes the already extraordinary beyond belief.
aletier_v
(1,773 posts)Different income groups have different propensities to spend.
Cutting taxes by $5 trillion from one group does not equal an increase of $5 trillion for another, at least in terms of spending and economic growth. Poor people spend a much higher percentage of their income.
cthulu2016
(10,960 posts)A $5T hike on the rich made revenue neutral by cutting $5T in the taxes paid by the non-rich would have a tremendous stimulative effect. Take $5T from workers and give it to the rich and it would be intensely contractionary.
I think everyone here would agree with that. The effects would be wildly different depending on the new winners and losers.
If the workers get $5T they spend it, and overall economic activity increases, making the rich richer. So perhaps it takes less than $5T hike to the rich to balance perfectly.
(The workers would spend 4-9% of their $5T on sales taxes, but that wouldn't affect the revenue neutrality in the federal tax code.)
In any event, the dynamic effects would run the other way. Nobody thinks Romney really plans to turn into Robin Hood, so the real effect would be contractionary. Total government revenue would decrease so it would take more than $5T taxes on the workers to balance a $5T tax cut for the rich.
So in dynamic terms, such as you describe, the real effect would be more than $5T in new tax revenue required to remain revenue neutral.
But simple nominal parity was more than enough to make my point.
That would put my tax rate to 30% I am nearly 72, earn very little and I am on Social Security. I call this tax increase designed by a Mormon(LDS, or Church of Jesus Christ of Latterday Saints) simply develish.
subterranean
(3,427 posts)yet they cannot or will not name a single deduction or loophole they would close to make up the $5 trillion dollar difference. They say they will work with Congress to determine that later. But if they don't yet know what loopholes will be closed, how do they know the numbers will add up? See what I'm saying?
Frankly, I believe their plan is just to use the promise of closing loopholes later as a way of getting the tax cuts passed. After they get the tax cuts, they will then not bother with closing the loopholes and eliminating deductions because that would be politically unpopular.
Samantha
(9,314 posts)to break government revenues. And the beat goes on ....
Sam
abumbyanyothername
(2,711 posts)to figure out exactly what loopholes can be closed without unduly affecting the middle class to raise $5 Trillion. But I am too tired to do it tonight.
https://www.jct.gov/publications.html?func=startdown&id=3642
cthulu2016
(10,960 posts)then it is just swapping $5T from rich person A to rich person B.
There would be effects from creating new winners and losers within the 1%, but oddly enough, I have never heard Romney explain why those effects would be better.
Why is it better for a rich person to buy stock than to buy a house, for instance?
I'm sure Mitt has his reasons, but there has been no case made for what social change is intended, let alone what the point of it would be.
HiPointDem
(20,729 posts)5 trillion in taxes?
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxfacts/displayafact.cfm?Docid=200
cthulu2016
(10,960 posts)I think the CBO will only score ten years out or something, so even if something has no fixed end to it the cost will be expressed as the ten-year cost, and everyone else (like think tanks) uses the same standard for compatability.
Romney claims he will cut everyone's taxes by 20%, so 20% of ten years of taxes. And presumably tax revenue would be higher than 2.3T ten years from now, so it works ou to around $5T.