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Recursion

(56,582 posts)
Wed Mar 18, 2020, 07:39 AM Mar 2020

The Longest Record Broken: Gold/Silver Ratio Hits Highest in Over 5,000 Years

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-longest-record-broken%3A-gold-silver-ratio-hits-highest-in-over-5000-years-2020-03-17

Another day, another disaster. We’re getting used to record-breaking moves nowadays. This is the fastest the stock market has ever gone from a peak to a bear market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 12.93% Monday, beating the worst day in 1929 (-12.82%). Etc., etc.

The most amazing record broken was not in the stock market, however. It was the long-standing record in what’s perhaps the longest-running price series in financial history: the gold/silver ratio (i.e. the price of one ounce of gold in terms of ounces of silver). Monday’s market sent that price to a record high – the highest level in over 5,000 years.

We have data for this series going back a long, long time – during Pharaoh Menes’ time (circa 3100 BCE) for example the ratio was 2½x, whereas in King Hammurabi’s day (circa 1750 BCE) it was 6x. The legendary Greek king Croesus (circa 560 BCE), who supposedly invented gold and silver coins, was more of a gold bug – he used a 13.33x ratio. Emperor Constantine I (280-337 CE) was less so at 10.5x.1

We have more frequent data starting from 1687 (courtesy of www.measuringworth.com2) that confirms it: yesterday the gold/silver ratio was the highest ever. The ratio peaked at 123.78. During Asian trading today it dropped back to around 116-117, but once London came in it went shooting back up to the 120-121 range. For reference, on Friday it averaged 101.74, and during all of 2019 it averaged 86.04. This is an amazingly swift change in this price. (The previous high before this month was in 1940, when it averaged 99.76 for the year.)
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The Longest Record Broken: Gold/Silver Ratio Hits Highest in Over 5,000 Years (Original Post) Recursion Mar 2020 OP
Cash is king? exboyfil Mar 2020 #1
You're right. Inflation, perhaps sudden inflation is a serious threat. empedocles Mar 2020 #2

empedocles

(15,751 posts)
2. You're right. Inflation, perhaps sudden inflation is a serious threat.
Wed Mar 18, 2020, 11:25 AM
Mar 2020

However, the lifeblood of the economy is credit/debt - and that is shrinking, offsetting inflation

All sorts of interesting, complicated questions in the gold/silver ratio, and deflation v. inflation debate.

However, simple answer to your question, 'cash is king'.

Simple answer is a treasury bill fund [better than pure cash], managed by you investment/mutual fund company. T-bills will take off with inflation. Back around 1980 short term T-bill rates peaked around 22%, providing very good capital preservation.

This is why the world's rich people, keep a t bill stash even if interest rates go negative.

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