Tough Measures to Stem the Coronavirus Outbreak Could Be in Place for 18 Months, Scientists Say

BY CIARA NUGENT MARCH 17, 2020 TIME

The U.K. government ramped up its response to COVID-19 Monday, asking citizens to cut all unnecessary contact with other people, after a British research team warned its earlier strategy would lead to hundreds of thousands of deaths. But those researchers also gave a troubling warning for countries around the world implementing lockdown measures: in order to be effective, they would need to last 12 to 18 months.

On Monday evening, Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced what many saw as an abrupt shift in his government’s strategy for combating the new coronavirus. Where before authorities told Brits to continue living more or less as normal and to self-isolate for a week if they displayed symptoms, the entire population is now asked to stop seeing friends and family, avoid public spaces like pubs and restaurants, and self-isolate for 14 days if anyone in their home has a cough or a fever. A member of the White House task force also cited modeling by British researchers, apparently the Imperial report, as the U.S. announced a strengthening of its own social distancing rules on Monday.

Though the measures stop short of the obligatory quarantine imposed in Italy, France and Spain, Johnson’s announcement brought the U.K. closer in line with the international coronavirus response after a week in which the country seemed to be opting for a unique strategy. On Friday, the government’s chief scientific adviser said that by not immediately introducing restrictions on travel and socializing, the virus would be allowed to circulate among healthier members of the population; its impact would be reduced by isolating those with symptoms, allowing the British population to develop some “herd immunity.” That sparked a backlash from some immunologists and epidemiologists, who argued the strategy would have “severe” consequences.

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Those concerns were born out in new modeling on different social distancing approaches in both the U.K. and the U.S., published Monday by London’s Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team, which advises the British government. In both countries, the scientists found that the kinds of limited social distancing that the U.K. had been implementing – a “mitigation” approach – would exceed health care systems’ maximum capacities “many times over.” In the U.K., roughly 250,000 people would die from the virus. In the U.S., the figure would be between 1.1 and 1.2 million.

More: https://time.com/5804555/coronavirus-lockdown-uk/?fbclid=IwAR3NFfRUO-bnnAHbsPCh3cTr46UaSsfsRg2Fp607I0ECeLU7ErJWLcXWR5U