General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsI love a good convention bounce
and my favorite polling site electoral-vote.com is showing why.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Maps/Sep10.html
Look at those numbers, I hope the trend continues. If you look under the map there's a graph showing the electoral college from January till today and in that entire period Romney never leads and Obama is below the clinching number for only about a week in June after mittens won the nomination.
I like this site for a lot of reasons
He keeps his analysis clear and concise
He allows you to remove the Rasmussen polls to see any changes to the map on any specific polling day
He lets you one-click to see what the polling was like on this day in 2008 (Obama was up 281/230 with 27 tied (Florida))
You can look at the state of the map on any date by clicking go forward and back buttons
You can also one click to check out the latest conditions of the Senate which is a bit more of a depressing section but I'll leave that for now.
jaysunb
(11,856 posts)longship
(40,416 posts)It is called confirmation bias, a classic logical fallacy.
Electoral-vote.com throws out Rasmussen polls. Why? Because it's putatively biased towards Republics. But other public polls are arguably biased toward Democrats. Why throw out Ras for partisan bias when you do not even attempt to eliminate those which are Democratic bias.
In science, if you want your paper to be published, you do not arbitrarily throw out so-called biased data. Why? Because every scientist understands that all data is biased. If you want your model to be closest to the truth you do not throw out any data. In the big picture, biases will balance out and the consensus should be close to the mark. This is especially true as we approach election day.
No other electoral map is as optimistic about a Dem victory as electoral-vote.com. I don't trust it because it arbitrarily throws out data based on confirmation bias, which is precisely why it is so optimistic.
This is moonshine.
sharp_stick
(14,400 posts)I thought I was pretty clear in stating you could remove them yourself to see any differences in results by removing them. Rasmussen and all the other polls are right there.
Damn dude if you're going to go all off on "confirmation bias" perhaps you should make sure you actually read the OP.
longship
(40,416 posts)Only Nate Silver and e-v.com.
I am optimistic, but e-v.com does promote their Ras-less polls. And even with Ras, they are an outlier. Just these two facts make me want to reject e-v.com. This is not about rejecting their data because we all have the same data; it's a rejection of their conclusions which are wildly optimistic.