covid-19 will turn one, maybe two of lichtman's keys against donnie

lichtman's keys is a simple model to predict if there will be a change of party in the next presidential election.

there are 13 true/false keys. if enough of them go in favor of the incumbent party, the donnie would be expected to win; otherwise, a democrat would win.


two of the keys depend on the economy one is whether or not there's a recession during the current term of office. well, we're there. this key has flipped in favor of a change, i.e., toward the democrat winning in november.

the other economic key is long-term economy -- whether gdp growth rate during the term is better or worse than gdp growth rate during the previous two.

i haven't done the math, and it would be premature as the estimates for the rest of the year are all over the map, but if we do contract at a rate of 3.8%, which is the latest estimate i've seen, i believe that's enough to make the gdp growth rate under donnie worse than the gdp growth rate under obama. if so, this will be another key flipped in favor of democrats.

all this makes defeating donnie far more likely. still hardly a shoe-in, but a promising indicator....


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House