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NRaleighLiberal

(60,015 posts)
Sat Mar 21, 2020, 11:04 PM Mar 2020

some grim COVID-19 Confirmed Case data milestones

we hit 100 cases on March 2
500 on March 8
1000 on March 10
5000 on March 17
10,000 on March 19
15,000 on March 20
20,000 on March 21 (today)

at this rate - and it has been very steady over the last week or so

50,000 on March 23
100,000 on March 26
500,000 on March 31
1 million on April 2 - that is 12 days from today.

two competing things can impact this - more testing (finding the undoubted infected among us) - and positive impact of social isolating (flattening the curve). There won't necessarily be less infections when all is said and done, but they will hopefully spread out more.

No matter how you look at it - miserable, scary, and we are only at the beginning.

11 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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some grim COVID-19 Confirmed Case data milestones (Original Post) NRaleighLiberal Mar 2020 OP
Can some one plot data from March 8 thru March 21 on Log scale? at140 Mar 2020 #1
See url, below davekriss Mar 2020 #3
each day has been about 1.38X the previous. NRaleighLiberal Mar 2020 #4
78 million in a month? struggle4progress Mar 2020 #2
to make matters worse evertonfc Mar 2020 #5
not really fair to extrapolate anything from any of these numbers Terry_M Mar 2020 #6
of course. But interesting that the daily rise throughout NRaleighLiberal Mar 2020 #7
Your logic is good but maybe not the math genxlib Mar 2020 #10
I remember predicting 100k by April 1st D_Master81 Mar 2020 #8
The Trump horror show is about to get rolling .... nt Jarqui Mar 2020 #9
Thanks, Vlad. czarjak Mar 2020 #11
 

evertonfc

(1,713 posts)
5. to make matters worse
Sat Mar 21, 2020, 11:19 PM
Mar 2020

after 8 weeks - self isolation will turn into desperation, civil unrest and riots. Social safety nets will fail. Cats ain't going sit inside indefinitely. You can bet on that.

Terry_M

(745 posts)
6. not really fair to extrapolate anything from any of these numbers
Sat Mar 21, 2020, 11:20 PM
Mar 2020

given the gaps in testing - the earlier numbers were probably a lot less accurate (ie if everyone who had symptoms was actually tested the number would have been a lot higher than 500). The later numbers are probably starting to approximate reality since testing has gotten to be more complete but with all of the news reports that some people with flu symptoms are still not being tested, the numbers today are still probably an under-count just not as bad of an under-count as March 8.

NRaleighLiberal

(60,015 posts)
7. of course. But interesting that the daily rise throughout
Sat Mar 21, 2020, 11:28 PM
Mar 2020

on a log curve is pretty much a straight line.

genxlib

(5,528 posts)
10. Your logic is good but maybe not the math
Sun Mar 22, 2020, 12:19 AM
Mar 2020

The rate of infection is increasing at a multiplier.

The rate of testing would have to increase faster than that multiplier to actually be more accurate.

If the rate of growth in infections is greater than the rate of growth in testing, it could actually be undercounting worse

D_Master81

(1,822 posts)
8. I remember predicting 100k by April 1st
Sat Mar 21, 2020, 11:32 PM
Mar 2020

That was when it was around 1000 maybe. It seemed unthinkable at the time that 100,000 people would be infected in a few weeks but we’ll probably be there by the end of next week.

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