When will the coronavirus pandemic end? What scientists can say about life returning to normal
When will the coronavirus pandemic end? What scientists can say about life returning to normal
Scientists are watching for signs of progress in the pandemic
By Naomi Martin Boston Globe Staff,Updated March 21, 2020, 2:09 p.m.
... What milestones will experts use to measure gains, however incremental, and to ever-so-warily hypothesize when we might return to some semblance of normalcy?... The first sign that the tide has started to turn, scientists say, will be a decline in new cases over several consecutive weeks, even as testing expands... New coronavirus-related hospitalizations should fall a week or two after the number of new cases declines, in light of the time it takes for the disease to progress.
... to reduce deaths by at least hundreds of thousands, top infectious disease specialists at Imperial College London recently projected that the United States should expect to have rolling periods of social distancing and school closures through late 2021. In each period, the measures would last about two months, relax for one month, then resume for two more. The specialists suggested using the number of coronavirus patients in intensive-care unit beds, based on the country’s peak intensive care unit capacity, as a trigger for restarting the restrictions.
For example, the Imperial College model projected that 510,000 people would die in two years in Great Britain without action. But the death toll would fall to 39,000 if the social distancing measures restarted every time the patient count in ICUs hit 400, or could shrink to 8,700 deaths if the trigger were 60 ICU patients.
Much more here
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/21/nation/when-will-coronavirus-pandemic-end-what-scientists-can-say-about-life-returning-normal/
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